superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looking at Wunderground maps now... The Euro actually shows measurable precip over much of South Carolina. There's also what appears to be a flizzard in Arkansas, Louisiana, and Mississippi. Baby steps, right? To be honest, looking at h5 and the trends, the Euro looks like it's close. Then again, I'm an eternal optimist, so I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro was a step in the right direction, may keep some from cliff diving for a day or so. Precip shield trended west, a few more trends in this direction and most members will be in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhill Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The 0Z Doctor says no/next! Edit: ooops, actually that's not true. Some light precip. SE coast GA to NC. Heaviest QPF ~0.20" near Charleston fwiw. No snowfall shown on clown maps, but those maps show only 1"+. How dry I am - next time I'll start the celebration later... hic! Dean Martin run. I promise to hydrate, please? Thanks for all the scientific disco. BTW - no owls flying overhead and a few mayflies showed up today along with the frogs singing in the rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The Euro inched closer so that is the good news. Also the NAM keeps getting closer and closer in the LR to something good. As always we'll be watching this thing until the day before most likely. EPS control run also inched a little closer last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looking at the Euro last night, something I noticed is that the energy was a little more strung out when the trough was positively tilted in Texas. And when I say a little strung out, I say a little. It wasn't that noticeable. I also noticed that the trough was slightly broader when it was positively tilted. However, The trough become both a little sharper and even a little deeper compared to the 12z run. The trough was also a hair more negatively tilted on 00z. If it was a little more strung out in the beginning when it was over Texas, but got it's act together quickly and even looked better when the trough was on the eastern seaboard, what if the trough isn't as strung out in Texas as it was in later runs? It may mean the trough was become negatively tilted soon. Just my opinion, please correct me if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Prepare for glory today.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Prepare for glory today.... I agree; if the models are going to trend back to the winter storm "look" then today is the day it will happen. Remember the Christmas day storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Prepare for glory today.... Hey if the Euro keeps inching closer we'll have a full blown snow storm on our hands 18 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Hey if the Euro keeps inching closer we'll have a full blown snow storm on our hands 18 hours out. I think we'll see some good trends today and dare I say, Wow makes his return too. Feels like it's gonna be a good day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I agree; if the models are going to trend back to the winter storm "look" then today is the day it will happen. Remember the Christmas day storm... Yessiree. That, my friend, was a good deal right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Many of the 6z GFS ensemble members pops a low on the NC/VA coast line around hr 72 to form some sort of Miller B scenario? Let's see what today brings. Can we get a guarantee on that "PREPARE FOR GLORY!" statement? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zf072.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Prepare for glory today.... I agree; if the models are going to trend back to the winter storm "look" then today is the day it will happen. Remember the Christmas day storm... Hey if the Euro keeps inching closer we'll have a full blown snow storm on our hands 18 hours out. I hope it happens. I know these lows that bomb off the coast can be special and sometimes don't show up until a few days beforehand. Maybe this will be like the Christmas 2010 storm that some have alluded to and things will come back around the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro is actually an inch or two of snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Euro is actually an inch or two of snow here. Yea it popped some precip your way...Euro Control Run was the same as well. It was very close...but you know horseshoes and hand grenades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 hey wait a minute, have we given up on anything showing up for the western part of the state for the weekend? if so we might as well write this winter off, this was sorta my last hope after all the let downs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 hey wait a minute, have we given up on anything showing up for the western part of the state for the weekend? if so we might as well write this winter off, this was sorta my last hope after all the let downs it never really held much promise for us. Everything is too far east. Exactly how do we write winter off? I keep hearing this and I wonder do we just say im tired of winter and it gets warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 hey wait a minute, have we given up on anything showing up for the western part of the state for the weekend? if so we might as well write this winter off, this was sorta my last hope after all the let downs We will have some clipper/upslope potentials next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 it never really held much promise for us. Everything is too far east. Exactly how do we write winter off? I keep hearing this and I wonder do we just say im tired of winter and it gets warm? no not really tired of winter, guess I get a little disappointed every time a possibility shows up we end up with nothing. guess all the let downs with not one decent snow has really built up. I know we're good until April around here, was hoping this weekend was the one. seems we always worry about the cold but that wasn't going to be a problem for a change for the weekend, no moisture hurts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 no not really tired of winter, guess I get a little disappointed every time a possibility shows up we end up with nothing. guess all the let downs with not one decent snow has really built up. I know we're good until April around here, was hoping this weekend was the one. seems we always worry about the cold but that wasn't going to be a problem for a change for the weekend, no moisture hurts. JB this am said this weekend's storm is the hardest of the winter to forecast. He said a split in the energy could be a big problem for any storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looks like the Nam is setting up for a fail. I can only see out to 48 though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Definite fail on the NAM. The energy swings through Southern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What is the significance of the s/w out in the southwest at 60 hours? The 12 NAM is really focusing on that one more than it has on prior runs -- much stronger and slower (well NW of 6z position). Definite fail on the NAM. The energy swings through Southern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Am I confused about the pieces? I thought there were two, one going through TX now @69 and one up north which is coming down through OK. Don't we want those to phase and it to go negative somewhere around LA or just shortly before there? Or do we need the piece in front of these to dig down into TX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What is the significance of the s/w out in the southwest at 60 hours? The 12 NAM is really focusing on that one more than it has on prior runs -- much stronger and slower (well NW of 6z position). Well that piece wants to head into TX and there is some energy coming out of the Plains in the northern stream but it of course misses the main chunk of northern stream energy that rotates through IL because it is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 OK. I'm not sure this run wasn't an improvement, however. Still not there, of course. Well that piece wants to head into TX and there is some energy coming out of the Plains in the northern stream but it of course misses the main chunk of northern stream energy that rotates through IL because it is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 At 72 it looks like it may try to phase to some degree over LA with the second and weaker piece of northern stream vort. We will see what kind of surface reflection appears at the end of the run (if any) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The more energy that stays on the backside of the trough the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Meh -- maybe not. Tilt actually worse on this run. OK. I'm not sure this run wasn't an improvement, however. Still not there, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 At 78 the trough axis digs into MS/AL with energy beginning to round the base (Still no surface low/precip showing up). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Meh -- maybe not. Tilt actually worse on this run. Yea it just pretty much stays neutral to negative all the way into FL...if that sucker would just turn we might be in business. Times are getting desperate. Hopefully the Euro can take another little baby step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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