Quakertown needs snow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 surface doesn't get to 32 till post 42hr for many but then precip moving out, good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Interesting note. Last night where I was in Flemington, I had a icy patches on my driveway at 11pm, despite the air temps across central NJ being in the mid30's. Went to Climate.rutgers and sure enough, soil temps were subzero north of 195. Now after two days of temps in the 40's, I don't expect that to be the case. South and east of the turnpike, some of the precip will be lost to the wretched looking vertical profiles...things don't look good for snow growth until moisture is slinking off to the east. Even after it changes over to snow, it will prob be a couple hours until the forcing overcomes -2 to -4 nearly isothermal temps all the way to 700mb. Further north, lighter precip rates will mean some loss to a warming surface. At least its all falling at night, we get that in our favor. I think 2-4 statewide, with a few jackpots to 5 or 6 in the banded zones. Wouldn't be surprised for the winner to be coastal Monmouth. Won't be much marine influence this go I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Candian RGEM is very warm as well. http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=fr&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=PT&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PT&hh2=045&fixhh=1&hh=042 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS thermal profiles for many. The GFS sounding for PHL shows potential though as the boundary layer cools between 00z and 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Even after it changes over to snow, it will prob be a couple hours until the forcing overcomes -2 to -4 nearly isothermal temps all the way to 700mb. Dynamic cooling doesn't work so well when temperatures are already below freezing... a big factor is the fact that you are taking heat from the atmosphere to melt the snow, but if its already below freezing then the snow isn't melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Many a Feb snowstorm has been preceded by afternoon temps above 40. Eve timing is a plus. Just need the good dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Dynamic cooling doesn't work so well when temperatures are already below freezing... a big factor is the fact that you are taking heat from the atmosphere to melt the snow, but if its already below freezing then the snow isn't melting. Have any thoughts for Ttn yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Many a Feb snowstorm has been preceded by afternoon temps above 40. Eve timing is a plus. Just need the good dynamics. I'm not so sure about many a Feb snowstorm, but certainly many a March and April snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Have any thoughts for Ttn yet? Classified Nah, I'll spit out some numbers after 18Z or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Classified Nah, I'll spit out some numbers after 18Z or so. Lol. Sounds good. Look forward to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm not so sure about many a Feb snowstorm, but certainly many a March and April snowstorm. Feb 22, 1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Feb 22, 1987 You said "many" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The GFS takes the southern 1/3 of NJ from rain to a heavy wet snow around 3z (possibly just before). Once 925mb cools to 0°C and below, it should be all snow. Great UVM also down there at 3z too with very nice profiles/snow growth. Could be a quick 3-6 inches after the rain down there. The 700mb trough isn't as organized on the GFS as the NAM but the track of the mid level centers look good for S NJ. Edit: I should point out that the GFS does not actually show 3-6" this run in southern NJ but I wanted to say the potential was there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 No doubt those of us with a little elevation will do better.....now how much precip gets back N and W of Philly we shall see. It will no doubt snow at PHL as I am taking my little ones on their first flight for a long weekend at Miami Beach on Thursday early AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That February 1987 storm brought 23.5" to Chester County - quite a bit less to PHL Feb 22, 1987 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'll side with the pros like Kocin who are going with a general 3-6 for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That February 1987 storm brought 23.5" to Chester County - quite a bit less to PHL It was pushing 50 that day. There was a foot or more accross most of SJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That February 1987 storm brought 23.5" to Chester County - quite a bit less to PHL It was pushing 50 that day. Willow Grove had 19" of 10:1 ratio snow. PHL had 6.8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Dynamic cooling doesn't work so well when temperatures are already below freezing... a big factor is the fact that you are taking heat from the atmosphere to melt the snow, but if its already below freezing then the snow isn't melting. Famartin, I was speaking to the fact that good lift would be temporarily offset by a less than ideal profile for snow growth initially. Things look great when the vortmax swings through and we get the better cold in the preferred snowgrowth zone, but I don't think this its an instant switch to heavy snow. H7 low tracks too far north for this to be the instant switch. Once the cold moves in aloft around 9pm I think things crank. Question is what is left moisturewise at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Famartin, I was speaking to the fact that good lift would be temporarily offset by a less than ideal profile for snow growth initially. Things look great when the vortmax swings through and we get the better cold in the preferred snowgrowth zone, but I don't think this its an instant switch to heavy snow. H7 low tracks too far north for this to be the instant switch. Once the cold moves in aloft around 9pm I think things crank. Question is what is left moisturewise at that point. And I was alluding to the cooling being more advective than dynamic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Willow Grove had 19" of 10:1 ratio snow. PHL had 6.8. We won't get the dynamics that we had then but that was a warm day near 50 in the coastal plain and there was plenty of snow even in SJ, De, eastern shore of MD, DC edit: Just to get completely offtrack. That phl measurement was a big mystery at the time surrounded by 12+ - ilg had 14.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 And I was alluding to the cooling being more advective than dynamic. Thank you, I misunderstood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That February 1987 storm brought 23.5" to Chester County - quite a bit less to PHL And most of it fell between midnight and 5 a.m. - I think there was 5" in an hour if I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just ran Wxsim with 12z data for NW Chesco Has drizzle by noon tomorrow with some light rain during the day transitioning to heavy snow by around 7pm - snow continues till around 2am with 3 to 5" of accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just ran Wxsim with 12z data for NW Chesco Has drizzle by noon tomorrow with some light rain during the day transitioning to heavy snow by around 7pm - snow continues till around 2am with 3 to 5" of accumulation Question for you... how realistic has this been for you this Winter? I saw some storms of the past that seemed pretty realistic with what you had posted. Never used Wxsim data. Do you have verification data saved anywhere or a ball park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 euro ticked N from 0z, but precip is still pretty light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z ECM looks like *almost* a complete non-event for Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 fwiw the euro is drier than 0z... basically pa tpk south .1-.25... .25 contour cape may county to dover on south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 fwiw the euro is drier than 0z... basically pa tpk south .1-.25... .25 contour cape may county to dover on south But verbatim too warm for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 But verbatim too warm for snow Not enough dynamics eh? The spread between the euro and GFS/NAM is conspicuous and they are both in their wheelhouses. I'd go with the American model because well, it specializes in the North America domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.