Heisy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Remember, its the NAM has NW & wet bias...Still, its been very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looking at all the data and professional opinions I am going with 6 inches for TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That's a 9-10" jackpot over my house according to that map. Yeah, that's definitely not happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That's a 9-10" jackpot over my house according to that map. Yeah, that's definitely not happening. Knock off 1-2 on that and that's what the nam is actually showing. People always forget to look at the maps before the event. In this case the nam thinks there is 1-2 inches over your area before hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm assuming RDG and ABE are too far north at this point for any meaningful snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm done with the nam, we get excited over it always and it's always WAY over juiced. It showed what 18" for N&W of Philly and we ended up with 5". GFS has been spot on, I'll go with her Ill call it this way ABE 2" PHL 3" TTN 3.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm done with the nam, we get excited over it always and it's always WAY over juiced. It showed what 18" for N&W of Philly and we ended up with 5". GFS has been spot on, I'll go with her OMG someone gets it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Knock off 1-2 on that and that's what the nam is actually showing. People always forget to look at the maps before the event. In this case the nam thinks there is 1-2 inches over your area before hand Haha still 4-5" for us Tom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well the NAM is pretty stupid if it thinks there is 1-2" of snowpack here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 Cutting the NAM in half is usally not a bad way to go. Looked about 6 inches for VAY not counting the snow tombo's map had so I'd say really expect 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 OMG someone gets it! took till mid february. I'm sure when next November rolls along the nam goggles will be on again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 lol i just saw this..basically illustrates the point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 At this stage, it's best to see the rest of the 12z guidance and use the NAM only to tell you that the potential for banding is there. There probably will be a small area/stripe from the M/D line counties into S-C NJ just NW of the developing mid level lows that picks up 6 inches or so. I'm excited to be in that potential spot in Mount Laurel, but I expect it to end up about 20 miles south of here...haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 took till mid february. I'm sure when next November rolls along the nam goggles will be on again. No, we all know it sucks yet the inner weenie shines through when it shows big numbers. We all want to be professional but realistically the GFS is a better model. Qpf is generally spot on, euro has its problems to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 took till mid february. I'm sure when next November rolls along the nam goggles will be on again. Or hopefully a new version takes over then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 At this stage, it's best to see the rest of the 12z guidance and use the NAM only to tell you that the potential for banding is there. There probably will be a small area/stripe from the M/D line counties into S-C NJ just NW of the developing mid level lows that picks up 6 inches or so. I'm excited to be in that potential spot in Mount Laurel, but I expect it to end up about 20 miles south of here...haha. should we expect the normal 10:1 ratios? The forcing looks solid in the 700mb zone but the temperatures are less than ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 should we expect the normal 10:1 ratios? The forcing looks solid in the 700mb zone but the temperatures are less than ideal 40 degrees is the high tomorrow in the Lehigh valley, it'll be pushing 50 near Philly. Good luck getting anything to stick for quite awhile. 10:1 ratios with even less towards the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 should we expect the normal 10:1 ratios? The forcing looks solid in the 700mb zone but the temperatures are less than ideal The profiles are pretty good on the NW edge of the precip shield and quickly become nasogood about midway into the shield, points south. Not only are the low levels borderline but the dendrite making is on the fringe of being poor. A 1"/hr wet snow pasting along/just nw of the mid level lows should be fine for 10:1 ratios overall. There could be slightly higher ratios on the NW fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nodriveslow2 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 lol i just saw this..basically illustrates the point That is classic!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 40 degrees is the high tomorrow in the Lehigh valley, it'll be pushing 50 near Philly. Good luck getting anything to stick for quite awhile. 10:1 ratios with even less towards the coast not saying they don't matter but in terms of ratios surface temps don't play much of a role. It matters usually in the 700mb zone where snow is made. From what i remember ideal temps are -12 to -15 for good snow growth combine that with good lift and you get nice ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 not saying they don't matter but in terms of ratios surface temps don't play much of a role. It matters usually in the 700mb zone where snow is made. From what i remember ideal temps are -12 to -15 for good snow growth combine that with good lift and you get nice ratios. This isn't entirely true. The surface temperatures, low-level temperatures and ground temperatures do play a role in how snowflakes build upwards. You aren't going to get higher ratios than 10:1 with low level temperatures at or above 32 with good rates even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This isn't entirely true. The surface temperatures, low-level temperatures and ground temperatures do play a role in how snowflakes build upwards. You aren't going to get higher ratios than 10:1 with low level temperatures at or above 32 with good rates even. Ahh i see, thanks for the explanation, makes perfect sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 not saying they don't matter but in terms of ratios surface temps don't play much of a role. It matters usually in the 700mb zone where snow is made. From what i remember ideal temps are -12 to -15 for good snow growth combine that with good lift and you get nice ratios. Yeah I agree but It was in the mid 30s here on Friday and it took hours for it to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 40 degrees is the high tomorrow in the Lehigh valley, it'll be pushing 50 near Philly. Good luck getting anything to stick for quite awhile. 10:1 ratios with even less towards the coast The main snow is expected Wednesday night, therefore the boundary layer will be cooling and the snow intensity will play a role as well. Liquid or melting snow initially will help cool the ground. Looking at the forecast soundings from the NAM for PHL, it looks rather nice. If that verified, there would be a period of thumping snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Borderline warning here in Delco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM clown map has 4-6" with lollipops to 8" south of Philly and a general 2-4" north and west. This is factoring in the ratios. With a 10:1 ratio you would add about 1-2" to everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hopefully, this is just my native pessimism speaking, but I am struggling to see it for this event. Yes, we (by "we", I am referring to the immediate Philly area/I-95 corridor) will get some snow, but it is going to be wet snow and what does fall will fall after several hours of steady rain followed by a period of rain/snow mix. Temps will likely be in the mid 40s late tomorrow afternoon when the precip starts. It is going to take a while to bring those temps down to a point where we are seeing all snow and then even longer to bring them down to a point where that snow can overcome the warm/wet ground and start accumulating. I am seeing maybe an inch or two of slush on lawns and cars and nothing but wet roads.... and I really, really, really hope I am wrong on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS thermal profiles for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12Z GFS a better run, but the temps are going to be hard to overcome in some places, no doubt. Clearly not an ideal airmass in place for the onset of a snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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