Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Well the pattern right now doesn't support suppression, and even if we trend further north, I think the s/w is juicy enough to produce 3" at minimum. Temperatures are entirely dynamically driven, and the model solutions w/ stronger vv's will obviously mean less BL problems. Agree with this, confluence should help with the North tug as well. Temps will be an issue at the bl, but those strong vv's should help overcome this just North of the PA/DE border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Ran the Wxsim with the 18z data and it shows a mix arriving on Wed early PM becoming all snow and heavy by rush hour - with it all finishing up by 1am - Total accumulation 7" to 9" (1.03" liquid equiv) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This system somewhat reminds me of the 2/1 clipper event that produced a banded feature that dumped 6-8 inches from central DE to Cape May County, NJ. While that one had much colder air in place and therefore higher ratios, this upcoming system looks dynamic enough to fire off a ribbon of focused frontogenetic forcing. If we can get the thermal gradient to tighten up some more, then this forcing would be even stronger. Have to watch these quick moving systems as they can certainly overperform especially if the forcing becomes rather focused. Of course the thermal profiles need to be right as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Can we finally get a Villanova/SE PA jackpot storm? It's becoming rather clear it will be a West Caln, Western Chesco with elevation jackpot FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This system somewhat reminds me of the 2/1 clipper event that produced a banded feature that dumped 6-8 inches from central DE to Cape May County, NJ. While that one had much colder air in place and therefore higher ratios, this upcoming system looks dynamic enough to fire off a ribbon of focused frontogenetic forcing. If we can get the thermal gradient to tighten up some more, then this forcing would be even stronger. Have to watch these quick moving systems as they can certainly overperform especially if the forcing becomes rather focused. Of course the thermal profiles need to be right as well. And someone would get screwed jobbered with that set up lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 And someone would get screwed jobbered with that set up lol. Do you have to be negative? LOL. Banding is neat to watch unfold though. The 2/1 event was, as Walt and I were seeing it evolve in front of our eyes early that morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Do you have to be negative? LOL. Banding is neat to watch unfold though. The 2/1 event was, as Walt and I were seeing it evolve in front of our eyes early that morning. in 10' it was awesome, saturday, naso much. lol. All joking aside, its awesome to see those bands form. Sucks when you're on the wrong side of them though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 is the timeframe being moved up for this system, is this coming in wed afternoon now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The Nov snow bomb and Boxing Day were some of the best bandings Ive lived through. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This Wednesday system is going to sneak up on some people. Sern NJ looks sweet right now with the fgen forcing and trowaling. Problem is it doesn't pay to be sweet @ 60 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Finally have the southern jet stream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Too bad its the NAM. has a classic pre-snowstorm look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM ever so slightly cooler before the storm moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM shifts south and east which brings the heaviest offshore. Colder at 850 level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM cooler further south. S Jersey jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Still looks like a 3-6 inch event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Could someone post qpf for Ilg, acy, phl, abe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Can we finally get a Villanova/SE PA jackpot storm? Feel like we haven't seen one of those since the 2009-10 winter. Sick of seeing New England and NJ jackpot while I'm here. I'm thinking 3-6" is a virtual lock at this point for us, with potential for 6"+. I hear ya dude. 3-6" here looking good at Mt. Villanova. Possible 6" we'll see if the gfs come in wetter but NAM was a solid 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Still looks like a 3-6 inch event. FOor SNJ.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 what about Somerset County NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 WHile the precip cut back on this run, we'd have a better fluff factor. Without looking @ raw numbers, 850 temps are below -4 most of the event except coastal NJ sections. Nothing crazy, but we wouldn't waste too much on a wet paste. Anyhow, enough dissecting the 0z NAM @48-57 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Could someone post qpf for Ilg, acy, phl, abe? what about Somerset County NJ? TTN - 0.69" ILG - 0.66" ACY - 1.19" PHL - 0.77" ABE - 0.36 SMQ - 0.44" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 TTN - 0.69" ILG - 0.66" ACY - 1.19" PHL - 0.77" ABE - 0.36 SMQ - 0.44" The visual QPF fields do not give any location over 1" of liquid. Are these numbers for the 0z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Yeah, those numbers seem way too high. AccuPro has ACY for 0.60". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The visual QPF fields do not give any location over 1" of liquid. Are these numbers for the 0z NAM? Yes, though its off the lower resolution version. Lemme check the higher res Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 TTN - 0.69" ILG - 0.66" ACY - 1.19" PHL - 0.77" ABE - 0.36 SMQ - 0.44" On sv maps, the .75"+ qpf maxima is offshore.. double check? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 AccuWx Pro has the following precip totals: TTN: 0.36" ILG: 0.38" ACY: 0.60" PHL: 0.40" ABE: 0.20" SMQ: 0.22" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 These are way different, maybe the first source I checked hadn't updated correctly. Higher res version: TTN - 0.37" ILG - 0.37" ACY - 0.62" PHL - 0.43" ABE - 0.19" SMQ - 0.22" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Clown map has 3-5" for South Jersey and 1-3" for Philly North and West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 those new totals make it a 1-3 event IMBY and the NAM does overdo precip sometimes, could it be even less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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