famartin Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 EC BL is still boderline but its good for a couple of inches of slop at PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Anyone see Upton? They already have a snowmap out for NYC with the region getting a general 4-6." Tony are you guys gonna put a map out with the afternoon package? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 Anyone see Upton? They already have a snowmap out for NYC with the region getting a general 4-6." Tony are you guys gonna put a map out with the afternoon package? Our snow map will be posted to the site and FB around 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Not much change in the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Anyone see Upton? They already have a snowmap out for NYC with the region getting a general 4-6." Tony are you guys gonna put a map out with the afternoon package? ..yeah..i did (i live on LI)..got me @ 5"(east end)..thats crazy. its too soon and too high..little premature to put out a map.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 18Z NAM is actually reasonable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Anyone see Upton? They already have a snowmap out for NYC with the region getting a general 4-6." Tony are you guys gonna put a map out with the afternoon package? Mt holly afd going a few inches from Phl point north into central nj. Thinking we start off as rain during the afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM looks good again. Solid hit for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 HPC qpf prog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Mt.Holly's prelim map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 that Upton map was pretty surprising this far out, why would they go so bullish this early in the game with only NAM support It's not just that model that supports those amounts. Ggem, srefs, ukmet, and gfs also with a advisory event for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 gfs is looking good. digging that northern stream more so than the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 slightly more NW of the 12z run.. surprising. Prob some boundary issues @ the beginning for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 gfs is really juiced up on the 18z run..vista snow maps have 295 on north and west 4-8 south of there 2-4... a spot of 8+ over lanc co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Too far north for my liking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Too far north for my liking... A real fine line with this one, it appears the main event will be the PD3 system for most people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Generates some good upward motipon and precip rates 1"/hr+ to help overcome warm boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hey there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Thanks for the info Tom of course I'll take it with a grain of salt. Maybe a 3-5 out my way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Is the start time more during the day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Is the start time more during the day? Around sunset it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 18z GEFS are pretty solid looking. .5-.75" from NYC- allentown and points south and east. (basically the entire mt.HOlly CWA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Gotta think that those south of Philly will have some issues with the BL. This could change a lot in 48 hours given it's synoptic and a dynamic event...if the phase is not perfect you're going to get a 12z type solution where everyone gets an inch or two of slop with elevation winners. Too strong a solution and the folks south of the city will be treading a very thin, fine line between snow and no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 6abc thinking 2-4", rush hr time frame start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I would guess 2-5 east of I-83 to I-81, east of 81 to 84, south of 84 to 87, west of 87 to NYC down the NJ Turnpike to Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I would guess 2-5 east of I-83 to I-81, east of 81 to 84, south of 84 to 87, west of 87 to NYC down the NJ Turnpike to Wilmington. Violently agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hey there Can we finally get a Villanova/SE PA jackpot storm? Feel like we haven't seen one of those since the 2009-10 winter. Sick of seeing New England and NJ jackpot while I'm here. I'm thinking 3-6" is a virtual lock at this point for us, with potential for 6"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Can we finally get a Villanova/SE PA jackpot storm? Feel like we haven't seen one of those since the 2009-10 winter. Sick of seeing New England and NJ jackpot while I'm here. I'm thinking 3-6" is a virtual lock at this point for us, with potential for 6"+. Is there such thing as a lock 48hrs out?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Is there such thing as a lock 48hrs out?... Well the pattern right now doesn't support suppression, and even if we trend further north, I think the s/w is juicy enough to produce 3" at minimum. Temperatures are entirely dynamically driven, and the model solutions w/ stronger vv's will obviously mean less BL problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 the 15z sref plumes have just over a 3 inch avg for phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.