tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 the vorticity on the gfs isn't as strong as the 0z where it has it closed off almost, while the 12z is open a decent amount. This was hr 48, it was closed at hr 42 like bri said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Still not as amp'd with the shortwave over arkansas. compared to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 this should be a decent hit. The whole flow looks pretty good with an exit off se va. Nothern stream has phased in and caused the whole trof to negative tilt a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 @51, the shortwave looks a little less concentrated than the 6z GFS ( more strung out), but there's a little less influence from the 50-50 low and a piece of energy suppressing heights over SNE/cape cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 hr 57 has a sub 1000 low about ready to move off se va coast...prob move ene from that point. Which is a good track for philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 57, light precip into the area.... temps are questionable.. 60. .25-.25 " qpf from state college to SE PA.. rain snow line on the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Pretty warm it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 that's very close at phl. I would think it's more wet than white. BL is pretty warm. Once away from the city should be alright despite the initial warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 yea, the 50-50 low was a little less suppressive, but the h5 vort strings out a little more compared to the 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 vista has 2-4 in philly and delco. A patch of 4-8 from york to western chesco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 hr 57 has a sub 1000 low about ready to move off se va coast...prob move ene from that point. Which is a good track for philly. I'm showing 4-8 in the NW burbs to 1-3 in S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 could be another instance where mt wayne is ripping snow and adam is counting the snowflakes wixed with gloppy rain as the slush builds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm showing 4-8 in the NW burbs to 1-3 in S NJ yea vista isn't as aggressive with the nw burbs. Has the 4-8 from york to wesetern chesco... then 2-4 to just over the river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ukie is also north but not like the GFS and Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I'm assuming less the farther North you head from there, ie, expect less than 2-4" in DYL (sorry for the imby question). Yea its an odd the snow map. Shows nothing for bucks county and lehigh valley which doesn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 that's very close at phl. I would think it's more wet than white. BL is pretty warm. Once away from the city should be alright despite the initial warm temps. yeah, the 925 0 line hugs the del river /se pa. If anything is white, its going to be pastey/use up a whole lot of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's all about dynamics. If we trend toward a stronger low, boundary layer issues will be minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ukie is also north but not like the GFS and Nam yea it looks like it exits off the seva/nc border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS Map, total precip., fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS Map, total precip., fwiw. Wrap it up, I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 pretty isothermal at phl. Verbatim prob rain/snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's all about dynamics. If we trend toward a stronger low, boundary layer issues will be minimal. Every time I look for dynamics to be the primary driver to take me over the warning criteria goal line, I get left by the side of the road. I don't think modeling is going to break hard on this threat one way or the other in terms of bl temps or absolute confidence of precip rates to overcome the bl issues....its gonna be a fragile setup for more than 2" of snow near the city and 295 but a real enough chance to give us all fits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 pretty isothermal at phl. Verbatim prob rain/snow. Looks just cold enough for snow but not by much, prob big wet flakes. I think starting as a little rain for most is a good bet. Evap/dynamical cooling are needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GGEM looks to be coming in as a hit; waiting on hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 CRAS is a hit (though it goes about it differently: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks just cold enough for snow but not by much, prob big wet flakes. I think starting as a little rain for most is a good bet. Evap/dynamical cooling are needed. Here's the blown up version. Freezing level looks like 400 meters. All snow if its puking. Any decrease in intensity and its mixing for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 CRAS is a hit (though it goes about it differently: Why is anyone in this subforum posting the CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Why is anyone in this subforum posting the CRAS? It shows snow and some people are desperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Nobody even posted the CRAS for the last storm......desperate times call for desperate measures. Why is anyone in this subforum posting the CRAS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It shows snow and some people are desperate. LOL. Well, they should stop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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