tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Every so often I'm gonna put that "Go Home NAM, You are drunk" graphic back up you could probably do the same with the srefs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The NAM is still showing the potential for a heavier band, which looks to be near PHL then to Ocean/Monmouth counties. The 700 mb frontogenetic forcing looks better then at 850 mb, however both really get going as it shifts east of the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The NAM is still showing the potential for a heavier band, which looks to be near PHL then to Ocean/Monmouth counties. The 700 mb frontogenetic forcing looks better then at 850 mb, however both really get going as it shifts east of the NJ coast. That is some serious lift the nam starts as you said over the phl area and really gets going around acy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The NAM is still showing the potential for a heavier band, which looks to be near PHL then to Ocean/Monmouth counties. The 700 mb frontogenetic forcing looks better then at 850 mb, however both really getting going as it shifts east of the NJ coast. Your Monmouth county posters fully endorse this post. ha ha ha Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The NAM is still showing the potential for a heavier band, which looks to be near PHL then to Ocean/Monmouth counties. The 700 mb frontogenetic forcing looks better then at 850 mb, however both really get going as it shifts east of the NJ coast. PHI special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 TTN 1-2" 70% 2-4" 20% 4"+ 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Every so often I'm gonna put that "Go Home NAM, You are drunk" graphic back up You just as well should add the RGEM to that kegger. 6z has Central, South Jersey over 15mm, now 12Z has cut that back to less than half! I cannot remember a time when forecasting models were this bad with cutting back QPF right before events as a whole than this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 You just as well should add the RGEM to that kegger. 6z has Central, South Jersey over 15mm, now 12Z has cut that back to less than half! I cannot remember a time when forecasting models were this bad with cutting back QPF right before events as a whole than this year. 12z run has very little and matches the euro. And it's the upgraded Rgem, which started today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The 12z NAM is also a little colder. Very limited front-end rain PHL and north. Would still support 2-4 on grass across middle of our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Pretty interesting HRRR is going bonkers which is pretty surprising for this model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Seems like the HRRR has been pretty good this far out as well. Interesting indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Feel pretty good about 2-4 call. System is still robust in OV and headed on a good track. Temps look OK with critical thicknesses close to M/D line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Seems like the thing which may prevent this from being a more significant system is the primary hanging on too long, preventing the secondary from getting going until its too late. As noted some place may still get a stripe of decent snow, but if the energy transferred faster heavier snow might be more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 My completely unprofessional views: Map Legend Eh, not bad = 2 to possibly as much as 4 inches of snow Cool, another flizzard! = Coating to as much as 2 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Sorry NAM. From HPC: ...SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NRN MID-ATLANTICAND SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND WED NIGHT...PREFERENCE: NON NAM COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGETHE NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY QUICKER WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THEPAST 24 HRS OF RUNS...AND ITS SURFACE LOW REMAINS DEEPER AND A BITNORTH OF MOST GUIDANCE EARLY THU MORNING. THE NAM SFC LOW IS NEAR40N AT 12Z/14. THE GFS IS ALSO ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE BUTREMAINS SOUTH OF THE NAM WITH LITTLE TRENDING SHOWN OVER THE PAST24 HRS OF GFS RUNS. GIVEN TIGHT ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI LOW PLOTCLUSTERING SOUTH OF 40N AT 12Z/14...A NON-NAM COMPROMISE ISRECOMMENDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Maybe some of the other mets/forecasters can comment but it looks like an unstable layer in the SGZ 2-6z across the central and southern portions of the region (per GFS). It might be brief and the low level temps may be marginal at best but it certainly is an eye-catching sounding. Too bad the best frontogenesis takes shape offshore but there is still +frontgen across the area for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Maybe some of the other mets/forecasters can comment but it looks like an unstable layer in the SGZ 2-6z across the central and southern portions of the region (per GFS). It might be brief and the low level temps may be marginal at best but it certainly is an eye-catching sounding. Too bad the best frontogenesis takes shape offshore but there is still +frontgen across the area for a time. Take the amounts with a grain of salt, but could be what the RAP* is picking up on. (again, take amounts with a grain of salt) The HRRR is as enthusastic with amounts, but still highlights the same area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Maybe some of the other mets/forecasters can comment but it looks like an unstable layer in the SGZ 2-6z across the central and southern portions of the region (per GFS). It might be brief and the low level temps may be marginal at best but it certainly is an eye-catching sounding. Too bad the best frontogenesis takes shape offshore but there is still +frontgen across the area for a time. Yesterday it looked kind of disjointed with the best fgen forcing and qvec convergence over Delmarva and Southeast NJ. Alot of wasted energy changing the rain to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardlover Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Yesterday it looked kind of disjointed with the best fgen forcing and qvec convergence over Delmarva and Southeast NJ. Alot of wasted energy changing the rain to snow. Vs. today, it's more organized/less wasted energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Vs. today, it's more organized/less wasted energy? I am sorry, I am off today so I don't know. The omegas look off at ACY (vs snow growth), looks like there is a window at PHL, for about an hour or two, Thank-you for asking, I didn't want to imply they were better today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I believe this will kinda screw (?) areas from Harrisburg to Lancaster with snow developing west of Harrisburg, fizzling out over those areas, and then coming in stronger to my east over Chester County to the shore. Living in this area only a brief time has taught me a few things about these systems over the past few months. I would want to be along 195 in NJ for the best snow in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 PHL 3pm 45 PNE 3pm 43 LOM 3pm 45 VAY 3pm 46 ILG 3pm 44 PTW 3pm 43 DYL 3pm 42 MQS 3pm 43 WRI 3pm 45 TTN 3pm 42 MIV 3pm 46 UKT 3pm 41 ACY 3pm 42 NEL 3pm 43 XLL 3pm 41 RDG 3pm 43 DOV 3pm 43 ABE 3pm 41 BLM 3pm 41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 PHL 3pm 45PNE 3pm 43LOM 3pm 45VAY 3pm 46ILG 3pm 44PTW 3pm 43DYL 3pm 42MQS 3pm 43WRI 3pm 45TTN 3pm 42MIV 3pm 46UKT 3pm 41ACY 3pm 42NEL 3pm 43XLL 3pm 41RDG 3pm 43DOV 3pm 43ABE 3pm 41BLM 3pm 41 I'm melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 /|\ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm melting. 37F wet bulb at PHL, probably sweating too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Nice snowband developing near Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm melting. As bad as that is. All the models had it getting this warm. The nam had 46 or so i believe at phl. The rap also has this warmth. Going to be interesting to see how fast the temps drop once precip comes in. btw, ray is going 6-8 for ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 As bad as that is. All the models had it getting this warm. The nam had 46 or so i believe at phl. The rap also has this warmth. Going to be interesting to see how fast the temps drop once precip comes in. btw, ray is going 6-8 for ttn centimeters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 meters* Fixed* Lets hope the HRRR is right. Although, i bet we waste some of that on cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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