Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Now that's nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Now that's nice. And now how often does the nams sim radar even look remotely close to the actual radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 And now how often does the nams sim radar even look remotely close to the actual radar? It did well with the last storm and nailed the snow squalls we had during the Superbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 It did well with the last storm and nailed the snow squalls we had during the Superbowl. Every time I compare them it shows a raging blizzard 2+" an hour when in reality it's a light snow falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I agree its not perfect, but I've found it to be a useful tool for tracking potential QPF, deform bands and extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I agree its not perfect, but I've found it to be a useful tool for tracking potential QPF, deform bands and extent. Maybe in your area but the Nam is at the bottom of the list for the lehigh valley. Always way over juiced and too far n&w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Maybe in your area but the Nam is at the bottom of the list for the lehigh valley. Always way over juiced and too far n&w 4k nam is not the same as the 12 k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 21z Sref's plumes show 5" for PNE TTN and JFK, BLM is over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 21z Sref's plumes show 5" for PNE TTN and JFK, BLM is over 6". Abe my friend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 13, 2013 Author Share Posted February 13, 2013 00z NAM: 925 mb temps are way warmer, more of a GFS/EC look to it now from a temp standpoint. Philly maybe a 4 hour window from 01 or 02 Z to 05-6 Z Thu for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Time after time the NAM withing 30hrs of a storm goes high with QPF and people go nuts...While I'm not saying its impossible its still tough to believe with the RGEM/EURO (my fav duo) showing much less precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 00z NAM: 925 mb temps are way warmer, more of a GFS/EC look to it now from a temp standpoint. Philly maybe a 4 hour window from 01 or 02 Z to 05-6 Z Thu for snow. Scroll through the thread I mentioned this. I think between 7pm-10pm (maybe 11) is when Philly gets some accumulation. The limited time frame probably means 3" max. However, places in central NJ closer to the coast could get some high rates as the precip starts to blossom and the low gets deeper as it exits stage right. I think someone in eastern CNJ will jackpot. Think Philly records 1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Abe my friend? 3.32" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Scroll through the thread I mentioned this. I think between 7pm-10pm (maybe 11) is when Philly gets some accumulation. The limited time frame probably means 3" max. However, places in central NJ closer to the coast could get some high rates as the precip starts to blossom and the low gets deeper as it exits stage right. I think someone in eastern CNJ will jackpot. Think Philly records 1.5" I'm sticking with my original thoughts. Coating to 3" area wide. Coating to an inch Allentown all surfaces. 1-2" with a 3" lollipop on grassy surfaces in philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Temps have been slowly trending warmer for this event. As others have said snow accumulation will depend on high precip rates. 00z NAM snow max is inland along the shore where precip is heaviest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Latest Wxsim for NW Chesco has 4 or 5" for the NW Philly burbs at 700ft asl....could be a big diff with a little elevation tomorrow evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Monmouth/Ocean County win looks likely again...I think any 4" totals are there...everyone else is 1-2, iso to 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Temp at my house FWIW...22 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 rpm has a 4" lolli over Ocean County (FWIW). It did pretty well in nowcast (inside 24 hours) mode on the blizzard around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 6Z GFS is drier and warmer. NAM was colder and as wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Just getting in to work and checking out the models. I never like it when the GFS and Euro show different solutions...especially the day of the event. I'm going to stick with my thoughts from yesterday with a coating to 2" for my area (KPTW) and Philly (KPHL). Could be some isolated spots of 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'll probably swing and miss somewhere but this is as good a dart throw as any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 021313-ADV4.jpg I'll probably swing and miss somewhere but this is as good a dart throw as any. Best map I've seen so far, many people are way too bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'll probably swing and miss somewhere but this is as good a dart throw as any. Like map also and enhanced zone in E NJ. I am going to stick with 2-4 through the middle of our area for now since NAM/SREF still support. Could easily bust in either direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 South and central NJ jackpot year somewhat. But the NMM says even SEPA has a nice band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Wxsim run with latest 6z models - continues to show a brief period of rain quickly changing to snow with 3" to 4" accumulating in the higher terrain in Chester County by the time it winds down just after midnight Currently AM Low was 24.4 currently up to 32.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Kocin at HPC less bullish than yesterday AM but still gives us a shot (>10% chance) at 4-6 CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NRN MID-ATL STATES/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTOOKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD AS LOW PRESSUREALONG THE GULF COAST MOVES IN TANDEM TOWARD THE EAST COAST BYWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THAT TIME...A COASTAL LOW IS EXPECTEDTO DEVELOP NEAR THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND HEAD RAPIDLYEAST NORTHEASTWARD SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT AND BE WELL OFFTHE COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.WHILE THERE HAVE BEEN NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE MODELS SINCEYESTERDAY...THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE THAT THE POTENTIAL FORSNOWFALL HAS INCREASED FROM THE MORNING MODEL RUNS FOR THENORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. INADDITION...THE 00Z UKMET/CANADIAN HAVE BOTH DECREASED AMOUNTSWHILE THE 00Z NAM REMAINS MORE INTENSE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AND 00ZGFS HAS DECREASED AMOUNTS A BIT FROM THE 18Z RUN. THE 21Z SREFREMAINS QUITE WET ESPECIALLY OVER NEW JERSEY...BUT THE 12ZECMWF/OPERATIONAL AND MEANS CONTINUES TO REMAIN QUITE DRY...WITHPRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR SNOWFALL GENERALLY LESS THAN .25 INCHES.THE 00Z ECMWF ALSO CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLWILL NOT BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CYCLONE.WITH THE ADDED ISSUE OF INITIALLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYERTEMPERATURES... PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES REMAINHIGHEST ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA BUTREMAIN MARGINAL FOR AN AREA FROM EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA ACROSSCENTRAL TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY/LONG ISLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHEASTMASSACHUSETTS. GIVEN THAT THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS RELATIVELYPOTENT WITH FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING LATE WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAYNIGHT WHEN MAXIMUM LIFT AND COOLING ARE OCCURRING IN WHATPRESUMABLY WILL REMAIN A DISTINCT COMMA HEAD...STILL THINK THAT 4TO 6 INCH TOTALS IN A RELATIVELY NARROW BAND ARE STILL POSSIBLEALBEIT LESS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 At least back home, the NAM just lost half its QPF. Finally. With what essentially amounts to capitulation from the GFS and NAM, I'll cut the top inch off my range for back home and call it coating-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 At least back home, the NAM just lost half its QPF. Finally. With what essentially amounts to capitulation from the GFS and NAM, I'll cut the top inch off my range for back home and call it coating-2". Lol and yet everyone still gets all giddy over what it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Lol and yet everyone still gets all giddy over what it shows. Every so often I'm gonna put that "Go Home NAM, You are drunk" graphic back up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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