AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's not looking good. Tonight is important for BL temperatures and we could cool down nicely but the clouds are moving in quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 .1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 This is the kind of forecast that you just put out, say "I hope it works" and then get ready to nowcast for because this thing's going to be all over the place tomorrow. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/16/entry-80-mid-atlantic-snow-forecast-for-february-13-onlyfinal/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 This is the kind of forecast that you just put out, say "I hope it works" and then get ready to nowcast for because this thing's going to be all over the place tomorrow . (especially the bolded) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Here's mine and it's exceptionally well crafted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Very bullish forecast, it's likely that the storm will begin as rain for everyone. The backside should be decent if the NAM and GFS are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Very bullish forecast, it's likely that the storm will begin as rain for everyone. The backside should be decent if the NAM and GFS are right. I'm riding the NAM like a blind cowboy with snow goggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Here's mine and it's exceptionally well crafted. I like Ellinwood's map much better...lol! (for my area anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Mt. Holly has an all new snow map out with some hope for many. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 21z srefs really came in wet. Brings .75 into phl and immediate burbs....with .5 from nyc to ukt to rdg to lns...shows majority of the precip type as snow with some wasted on front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Mt. Holly has an all new snow map out with some hope for many. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Ca-Ching! Jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Mt. Holly has an all new snow map out with some hope for many. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterDSS.shtml coming up with "nada" for all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 coming up with "nada" for all? its down at the bottom of the page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 coming up with "nada" for all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Ca-Ching! Jackpot! actually two areas of jackpots. One to the west and northwest where they get .3-.5 then an additional 1.7-1.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Based on that, I'd think they are planning to issue an advisory for S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 21z srefs really came in wet. Brings .75 into phl and immediate burbs....with .5 from nyc to ukt to rdg to lns...shows majority of the precip type as snow with some wasted on front end. many on the fly adjustments pending? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Based on that, I'd think they are planning to issue an advisory for S NJ. he forgot to post the day before which has .3-.5 to the west and northwest which brings them into 2-2.5 for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 many on the fly adjustments pending? eeee not sure...i do trust the srefs more than the nam, but they haven't been that great this year at all. Like others said tomorrow will be a nowcasting with how the moisture looks and temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 eeee not sure...i do trust the srefs more than the nam, but they haven't been that great this year at all. Like others said tomorrow will be a nowcasting with how the moisture looks and temperatures. Bingo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 NAM looks significantly warmer through 6 hrs already at 850 level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 NAM looks significantly warmer through 6 hrs already at 850 level. The area is already living on the edge, though the 850mb has been running warm lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 At hr 12, the 850 line is probably about 400-500 miles further north than hr 18 on the 18z. Incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 At hr 12, the 850 line is probably about 400-500 miles further north than hr 18 on the 18z. Incredible. It collapses south quickly at hr 15 but it's an illusion as the depth of the cold air is very shallow and is easily displaced by Warm Air Advection. Thread the needle event with no confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 A quick note about the SREFs. Eskimo Joe posted this today in the C PA thread/forum. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39113-central-pa-february-2013/?p=2115313 "I spoke with a met one of the Emergency Response Specialist Mets from Sterling during the last event about the SREF. He informed me that SREFs have a tendency to waffle 12 - 24 hours before events and should be used with caution. The exact cause is unknown at this time, but there is active research ongoing to find a fix for the issue. " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looks like it's coming in weaker and flatter. EDIT: Ends up about the same, maybe slightly further east than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Just a little slower to get the coastal going. No major changes but a little drier away from the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Looks like it's coming in weaker and flatter. EDIT: Ends up about the same, maybe slightly further east than 18z. yea but the bl is a heck of a lot warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I think, if the NAM is right Philly would get a 3-4hr snow period between like 7pm and 11pm...1-3" seems fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 This vort seems pretty strong. These suckers, imo, have a tendency to surprise. I think a local area that gets lucky, and I'm thinking someone in NJ towards C-E NJ could see 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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