famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'm going to keep a slightly wider than normal window open for TTN and say "coating to 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Its amazing how far apart it is from everything else this close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like Mt. Holly removed all chance of snow now? The map now says "no significant snowfall expected in the next 48 hours" here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The euro has been incredibly inconsistent on its handling of the 500 with this storm for the last couple of days. Haven't had much confidence in it. It may ultimately be right but it really hasn't been rock solid so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like Mt. Holly removed all chance of snow now? The map now says "no significant snowfall expected in the next 48 hours" here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php It's still on the "Day 2" map and I don't believe it's been promoted to the official forecast map yet. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 It's still on the "Day 2" map and I don't believe it's been promoted to the official forecast map yet. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/WinterDSS.shtml Thanks. I guess I don't know how to read - don't even think I ever knew that was there before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks like Mt. Holly removed all chance of snow now? The map now says "no significant snowfall expected in the next 48 hours" here: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/stormtotal.php That's their link from last year. They moved the location this year but didn't remove the old location. The new location can be accessed from their home page and then click on Winter Weather (upper right) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So what's beat case scenario down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So what's beat case scenario down here? for your locale stronger storm but further south so the heavy precip can dynamically cool your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So what's beat case scenario down here? I don't want to sound pessimistic and I haven't looked at everything, but my gut answer is "coating-1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 looks likes 15z serfs are more nw with the precip sheild, gets .5 almost back to philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B Dawk 20 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 looks likes 15z serfs are more nw with the precip sheild, gets .5 almost back to philly Temp looks "ok" if not ideal. Should get some paste at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 So what's beat case scenario down here? I don't want to sound pessimistic and I haven't looked at everything, but my gut answer is "coating-1". meh, sounds about right. Thanks ray! Hoping we can get the weekend to trend back west. I like where we sit on that one at this point.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NWS state college lowered amounts in lancaster county to 1-2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This thing keeps getting out of here faster and faster. Most of the precip looks to be over by midnight on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 This thing keeps getting out of here faster and faster. Most of the precip looks to be over by midnight on the NAM. Warmer too it appears at quick glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Bobby, It generally does a good job but it is especially useful for playing with advection routines (upwind sites) to help forecast temps - that was the original purpose of the program. It uses a blend of the NAM and GFS for precip....but it is only as good as the most recent model runs. It has a built in report that compares the forecast to actual (from my weather station) it also features a learning mechanism to help it learn from temp errors. Generally it works very well and is especially useful with start /stop times for precip and forecasting temps in your exact location. For more info check out their website at www.wxsim.com Question for you... how realistic has this been for you this Winter? I saw some storms of the past that seemed pretty realistic with what you had posted. Never used Wxsim data. Do you have verification data saved anywhere or a ball park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Think we'll see WWAs around these parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I *think* this is the new Mt. Holly map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Briefing up http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbTC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I *think* this is the new Mt. Holly map. That's the day 2 map that I posted on FB. Day 1 has a few spots for north with 0.1 but didn't count towards me. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 18z gfs ain't any better. it's closer to you but the bl is warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 HPC PM forecaster less bullish than Kocin DAYS 1/2...TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THU......CENTRAL APPALACHIANS/NRN MID-ATL STATES/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDTHE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE EASTNORTHEASTWARD AND WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WEDNIGHT AND OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BEA RELATIVELY FAST MOVER...WHICH LIKELY PRECLUDES SNOWFALLACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 8 INCHES.ON DAY ONE...MODERATE PROBABILITIES OF 4 INCHES ARE SHOWN IN THEMOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA AS THE NAM/GFS/MOST SREF MEMBERS SHOW AQUARTER TO FOUR TENTHS LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP WHERE IT IS COLDENOUGH FOR SNOW. THE MORE SUPPRESSED WAVE OF THE 12Z ECMWF REDUCEDQPF AMOUNTS TO UNDER A QUARTER INCH...SO A HIGH RISK IS NOT SHOWN.ON DAY 2 THE GFS/ECMWF/12Z GEFS MEAN/09Z SREF MEAN CLUSTER WELL ONTHE LOW TRACK SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. THE 12Z NAM WAS ON THENORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUITE OF TRACK SOLUTIONS WITH THE HIGHESTSNOW POTENTIAL IN LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND THE MORESUPPRESSED//FURTHER SOUTH UKMET WITH THE LEAST.THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A COUPLE OF INCHES AND LOW RISK IS MAINTAINEDAS SEVERAL SREF MEMBERS HAVE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSSSOUTHERN NJ/LONG ISLAND AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE 12ZECMWF HAS LESS A TENTH OF IN INCH FROM SOUTHERN PA TO LONGISLAND/EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RESULTING IN VERY LITTLE IFANY ACCUMULATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Glenn on NBC10 going rather bullish vis a vis nws..... Going 3-5 Philly metro into mid jersey and coating-2" down here and n&w of Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 RPM shows nobody getting 2"...yeah, it's the RPM but it isn't terrible at this point in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 With so many issues, temps, precip...Def. dont have high expectations with this one. I'd be happy with 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 "If you don't expect too much from me, you might not be let down" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 RPM shows nobody getting 2"...yeah, it's the RPM but it isn't terrible at this point in time. Yeah near the start of the last storm I think it was down to 2" for PHL which actually was pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Right know I'd go 2-4 on grassy surfaces based on a SREF/NAM/GFS blend. The US models have had a better handle on the strength of this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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