Mitchell Gaines Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Thread for the upcoming Wednesday storm. This could be something to keep us singles happy and add to the romance for couples . ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Good you got the thread, NAM seems to be slightly cooler ahead of the impending event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 12Z NAM hours 39-48: Lift, confluence zone, lift! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 i hate discussing the nam, but it looks like its primarily focusing in on the h5 low swinging just to our south from the southern plains. It's a pretty potent piece of vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah, probably a fantasy run, but looking at 700mb & RH this thing is going to show a copious amounts of precip over our area this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 A NAM QPF bomb incoming, big surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Difluent flow at 500mb at hour 60 as well. Curious to see how this ends up. And then how the GFS crushes all weenies' dreams in an hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Close to closing off a 500mb low at 60-66 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Insane VVs on top of our region, god I wish this was an accurate model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM to far north with primary in my view. I think the right idea is for a secondary along the NC coast tracking northeast with primary into east KY. Though attempts a correction to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks close to the 0Z GFS which was a good hit for SE PA. Matches the CRAS placement of SLP to a tee fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM has been slowly getting less amplified with each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 IF this run was 100% accurate (obviously not, and still correcting SE), Philly would still lose some snow to mix/rain. With those rates though and VVs even with some warm layers it would be a heavy wet snow for 6 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM to far north with primary in my view. I think the right idea is for a secondary along the NC coast tracking northeast with primary into east KY. Though attempts a correction to the coast. I thought it looked OK on its way to the coast. Though I'm not that convinced of the left hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Like i said a couple days ago. With the 50/50 low positioning and the kicker coming downstream i don't see that low getting any further north then se va extreme southern delmarva penn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 With the kicker on it's heels, does it make sense for the low to be pinching off at 500mb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 honestly, the nam isn't even worth 4 posts on its solution or anything it shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rickrd Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 any odds out there for NAM verifying this far out? i say 5/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 any odds out there for NAM verifying this far out? i say 5/2 About the same odds that colin comes back to the forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 honestly, the nam isn't even worth 4 posts on its solution or anything it shows. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 this If someone held a gun to your head and said choose between the CRAS or the NAM, what do you do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think the NAM is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Now that Mitchell started a thread on this storm potential, watch it end up being clear and mild. Adam will be sitting poolside, and Tony will be touring golf courses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Now that Mitchell started a thread on this storm potential, watch it end up being clear and mild. Adam will be sitting poolside, and Tony will be touring golf courses. Lol I could def see it trending worse. Mitchell should of held off the trigger till after 12z runs like I said and should of namesd the thread the Gaines bomber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I know this is probably a banable offense but NAM snow map with ratios..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 alright lets put the nam shenanigans aside...gfs is coming out discuss what it shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 36, shortwae in tx /ok looks stronger than 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 36, shortwae in tx /ok looks stronger than 6z. yea the whole flow on the east coast, hgts wise is raised. Less influence from the 50/50 low suppressing them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 comparing the 0z gfs with 12z looks pretty close. I would argue to say the 12z is phasing in the northern stream faster than the 0z with also higher hgts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 42, sw closes off ( albeit tightly and probably briefly over NW arkansas). flow along the coast is slightly more sw to ne, compared to a more ENE on the 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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