clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Use this link. Has phase diagrams for all the globals and a few things I've never heard of before. MJO is tricky. Skill is usually so so at best. However, if you check all the globals and ens, they all briskly move it through 1-2-3-4. I would say the odds favor it continuing. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml It's not a bible though. Moving through the unfavorable phases is far from a lock of warm. Plus, the strength of the signal is important. It's not all that strong as progged. Things like a -nao can trump the mjo expected condition very easily. La La land gfs keeps showing the best -nao of the winter coming up in 10+ days. Who knows. Thanks Bob. I remember when MJO was not moving as quickly as we would have liked or expected earlier this winter and now, like, it is truckin'. QVectorman was pretty articulate in his analysis of MJO phasing. My eyes will be tested, though, looking at the maps. But we do have -NAO on our side, god bless it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM looks terrible at 84 for weekend storm Nooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 PD3 looks dead again on the GFS...just not much development, northern stream crush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 not even a sprinkle at 108. This winter sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 In this crappy winter the VD storm is the best we are going to do. Flawed, mixed POS "event." Looking past those little turd storms for the big one has not worked at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That trough might go negative in time to give Iceland a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wow...really doesn't even develop anything offshore. Just a huge 1010mb bag of WTF 1000 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro wins yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That trough might go negative in time to give Iceland a nice storm. Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like the energy hitting the nw is pushing the trough along (unfavorably) and not letting things amp up like we were hoping. Is this a fair assessment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 In this crappy winter the VD storm is the best we are going to do. Flawed, mixed POS "event." Looking past those little turd storms for the big one has not worked at all. feels like a nina winter whatever it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like the energy hitting the nw is pushing the trough along (unfavorably) and not letting things amp up like we were hoping. Is this a fair assessment? Seems fair. Probably would have liked to see the energy dig further south and pop the western ridge rather than just blowing through. The spacing just seems to be too tight right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gorgeous setup at 153. +PNA, two s/w's with phase potential, big 50/50, negative or neutral NAO...Let's see how it goes all to hell. I'm glad you said it. At the very least the cutter will probably be close to a runner. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gorgeous setup at 153. +PNA, two s/w's with phase potential, big 50/50, negative or neutral NAO...Let's see how it goes all to hell. I'm glad you said it. At the very least the cutter will probably be close to a runner. Baby steps. Gonna cut it to Detroit Cleveland. Wouldn't be so funny if it wasn't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ****. Wxusaf, I accidentally deleted ur post. Damn iPhone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Haterz hate. Luckily I quoted it first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z has the departing 50-50 down to 944mbs. Wow. Just slow that damn thing down and park it please. Setup favors a west track but at least there are some things that can get in the way. Not ready to go all in yet. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Thanks for your informative response. Quick question. I have been under the impression that generally a sharper through gives you a little more leeway on the timing of these shortwaves as well as better amplification as opposed to a broader trough. I am curious if this is correct. that is a generalization but sharper is usually better, but there are so many moving parts in the equation its not just one thing. Timing is a huge issue, if you get a nice vort into the trough at the right time, it will amplify and the trough will sharper up. Of course if it goes negative too soon...cutter, of course unless you have a really good -NAO block... see it just depends. What you want from each of those independent factors depends to a large degree on the others. Lots of moving parts that have to come together in the right way. There is no simple answer. But if you want to simplify it to a few things we need to see to know the setup has promise, the trough has to dig to at least south of our latitude, you want the h5 vort to track to your south, and you generally want the ridge axis out west to be somewhere around the great basin. Those 3 at least set us up to have a chance. Of course a -NAO and good cold air source help and a million other meso scale things like the timing of the sw's and all end up deciding the final outcome. We can have the perfect setup, +PNA, -NAO, perfect ridge and trough position, and not get anything if the timing is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z has the departing 50-50 down to 944mbs. Wow. Just slow that damn thing down and park it please. Setup favors a west track but at least there are some things that can get in the way. Not ready to go all in yet. lol Love me some warm rain. Is it spring yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Love me some warm rain. Is it spring yet? Close enough. I have 2-3 weeks left on this job and i'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 that is a generalization but sharper is usually better, but there are so many moving parts in the equation its not just one thing. Timing is a huge issue, if you get a nice vort into the trough at the right time, it will amplify and the trough will sharper up. Of course if it goes negative too soon...cutter, of course unless you have a really good -NAO block... see it just depends. What you want from each of those independent factors depends to a large degree on the others. Lots of moving parts that have to come together in the right way. There is no simple answer. But if you want to simplify it to a few things we need to see to know the setup has promise, the trough has to dig to at least south of our latitude, you want the h5 vort to track to your south, and you generally want the ridge axis out west to be somewhere around the great basin. Those 3 at least set us up to have a chance. Of course a -NAO and good cold air source help and a million other meso scale things like the timing of the sw's and all end up deciding the final outcome. We can have the perfect setup, +PNA, -NAO, perfect ridge and trough position, and not get anything if the timing is off. Hence, why we have a good storm every 5 - 7 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Day 9-10 storm on the GFS is loltastic. Sure...we usually get snow from storms that are neutrally titled in Kansas and have the low center NE of Indianapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You can tell it's been a really bad stretch by the excitement over fantasy range storms simply showing back up on the models like they usually do all winter in a normal year. 384 isn't bad. Time to start playing with the 10C 850 line more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Day 9-10 storm on the GFS is loltastic. Sure...we usually get snow from storms that are neutrally titled in Kansas and have the low center NE of Indianapolis. You mean the 1032 H in Quebec isn't going to cut it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 384 isn't bad. Time to start playing with the 10C 850 line more often. SE pig ridge back in town. 582 line up into the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 You mean the 1032 H in Quebec isn't going to cut it? ICE! 2" of ice fookin counts at breaking the streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ICE! 2" of ice fookin counts at breaking the streak. No...check the 2m temps. GFS actually thinks it's going to snow in that situation. Well, I suppose there might be a warm layer between 850 and the surface, but it's so not worth it to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 PD3 is dead and any storm beyond 180 hrs is bs. This winter nina > nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 No...check the 2m temps. GFS actually thinks it's going to snow in that situation. Well, I suppose there might be a warm layer between 850 and the surface, but it's so not worth it to check. Fair enough...1,5" of snow then .5 ice then watch it go down the gutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'll take my chances with this and not worry about the mjo. I've watched more polar loops @ 500 this year than seinfeld episodes. The -nao has been showing over and over again for over a week. The signal keeps getting stronger. The nao is a tricky beast to forecast. A good -nao can pop up at relatively short leads. LR guidance is suspect at best but it's been consistent enough to pay attention to. nao1.JPG IF, and its a BIG if...the NAO goes strongly negative it could dominate the pattern this time of year. The NAO has its strongest correlation to cold and snow in our area this time of year and through into March. I am skeptical, however, since the NAO has not wanted to venture into strongly negative territory very often this winter. A weak NAO signal won't be enough to overcome the MJO in my opinion. But if the GFS is right and we get a strong NAO we might have a chance to get a storm to amplify far enough south for us...sort of a fluke type situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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