Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 there are still a fair amount of 6z ensemble members that are exciting but not as many as 00z. If there is no storm by 00z tonight...it might be punt time again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I am hoping euro will trend or come on target for pd3 today. There was some other storms as we approach march. Once the pattern breaks down, spring is in the air After next week, we may be done. Not that this winter ever really got going. Everything is riding on the weekend storm, and the chance of a storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 there are still a fair amount of 6z ensemble members that are exciting but not as many as 00z. If there is no storm by 00z tonight...it might be punt time again You don't punt a setup like this when its still more then 3 days away. If we get inside 72 hours, the energy for the storm is over well sampled areas and we still see no model movement towards a storm, THEN it might be time to call out the special teams. You don't punt just because its 3rd and 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 After next week, we may be done. Not that this winter ever really got going. Everything is riding on the weekend storm, and the chance of a storm next week. Agreed, the MJO is trucking again, so we have about a 10 day window now, then it gets into phase 4 and were toast. I think we still have a legit chance this weekend, then we have one and perhaps two chances following it next week. If the MJO really continues to fly we might get one last hail mary shot at snow mid March, but climo argues that would be more for areas NW of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 There is some time left for this to trend back to us, but when you see the progression it does nothing for confidence. We got only a few pieces left on this chessboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wasn't really talking about the depth of the trough. I think many times the models overplay that and wouldn't be surprised to see them draw back a little on that as we get closer. I was referring more to the fact that the trough is a little sharper and not as broad with what looks to be slightly better heights building in under the 50/50. All in all I am just looking for some possible signs towards a solution that brings it up the coast but I do agree at this time they look more like fish storms which makes the 00Z result even more surprising. Edit: Of course thinking about it for a moment these things I am seeing might be more a function of the 6 hour lag between frames. A lot of it does have to do with the 6 hour differential. Furthermore, having a nice trough position does not always help if the sw that develops the storm is not rounding the base of the trough at the correct time. You need it to be in synce. 0z was, 6z not so much. There are still several members that develop a storm, so I am not punting but it was a definite step back from 0z. 0z was about as strong a storm signal as you will ever see on an ensemble at that range. Plus, looking at one point in time is not going to give you the whole picture either. It might look great in a vacume but when you see how it evolves something pushes the trough too far east or suppresses the vort and it goes wrong from there. I know I posted a snapshot in my earlier response last night to the 0z GEFS but that was because someone had already posted the end result and I was simply adding the upper level support for why we saw that result. The trough on the 6z is a little too progressive, shifts east a bit too much and the storm ends up OTS. The 0z was less progressive, the trough stalled out more and allowed the system to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Agreed, the MJO is trucking again, so we have about a 10 day window now, then it gets into phase 4 and were toast. I think we still have a legit chance this weekend, then we have one and perhaps two chances following it next week. If the MJO really continues to fly we might get one last hail mary shot at snow mid March, but climo argues that would be more for areas NW of the cities. Can you tell me if the picked up pace of the MJO progression has a chance of stalling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 A lot of it does have to do with the 6 hour differential. Furthermore, having a nice trough position does not always help if the sw that develops the storm is not rounding the base of the trough at the correct time. You need it to be in synce. 0z was, 6z not so much. There are still several members that develop a storm, so I am not punting but it was a definite step back from 0z. 0z was about as strong a storm signal as you will ever see on an ensemble at that range. Plus, looking at one point in time is not going to give you the whole picture either. It might look great in a vacume but when you see how it evolves something pushes the trough too far east or suppresses the vort and it goes wrong from there. I know I posted a snapshot in my earlier response last night to the 0z GEFS but that was because someone had already posted the end result and I was simply adding the upper level support for why we saw that result. The trough on the 6z is a little too progressive, shifts east a bit too much and the storm ends up OTS. The 0z was less progressive, the trough stalled out more and allowed the system to amplify. Lets not forget that the models can't resolve sw placement very well inside of 84 let alone 100+. Won't take much of a sw either. Even a modest piece at the right time will get spinning really easy at the bottom of a trough like this. And the gulf is open for biz. My gut say we get multiple runs of interesting looks going forward but none can be deposited in the bank until we're inside of 84ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Can you tell me if the picked up pace of the MJO progression has a chance of stalling? Use this link. Has phase diagrams for all the globals and a few things I've never heard of before. MJO is tricky. Skill is usually so so at best. However, if you check all the globals and ens, they all briskly move it through 1-2-3-4. I would say the odds favor it continuing. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml It's not a bible though. Moving through the unfavorable phases is far from a lock of warm. Plus, the strength of the signal is important. It's not all that strong as progged. Things like a -nao can trump the mjo expected condition very easily. La La land gfs keeps showing the best -nao of the winter coming up in 10+ days. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM looks terrible at 84 for weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 A lot of it does have to do with the 6 hour differential. Furthermore, having a nice trough position does not always help if the sw that develops the storm is not rounding the base of the trough at the correct time. You need it to be in synce. 0z was, 6z not so much. There are still several members that develop a storm, so I am not punting but it was a definite step back from 0z. 0z was about as strong a storm signal as you will ever see on an ensemble at that range. Plus, looking at one point in time is not going to give you the whole picture either. It might look great in a vacume but when you see how it evolves something pushes the trough too far east or suppresses the vort and it goes wrong from there. I know I posted a snapshot in my earlier response last night to the 0z GEFS but that was because someone had already posted the end result and I was simply adding the upper level support for why we saw that result. The trough on the 6z is a little too progressive, shifts east a bit too much and the storm ends up OTS. The 0z was less progressive, the trough stalled out more and allowed the system to amplify. Thanks for your informative response. Quick question. I have been under the impression that generally a sharper through gives you a little more leeway on the timing of these shortwaves as well as better amplification as opposed to a broader trough. I am curious if this is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'll take my chances with this and not worry about the mjo. I've watched more polar loops @ 500 this year than seinfeld episodes. The -nao has been showing over and over again for over a week. The signal keeps getting stronger. The nao is a tricky beast to forecast. A good -nao can pop up at relatively short leads. LR guidance is suspect at best but it's been consistent enough to pay attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Use this link. Has phase diagrams for all the globals and a few things I've never heard of before. MJO is tricky. Skill is usually so so at best. However, if you check all the globals and ens, they all briskly move it through 1-2-3-4. I would say the odds favor it continuing. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml It's not a bible though. Moving through the unfavorable phases is far from a lock of warm. Plus, the strength of the signal is important. It's not all that strong as progged. Things like a -nao can trump the mjo expected condition very easily. La La land gfs keeps showing the best -nao of the winter coming up in 10+ days. Who knows. Thanks Bob. I remember when MJO was not moving as quickly as we would have liked or expected earlier this winter and now, like, it is truckin'. QVectorman was pretty articulate in his analysis of MJO phasing. My eyes will be tested, though, looking at the maps. But we do have -NAO on our side, god bless it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM looks terrible at 84 for weekend storm Nooooo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 PD3 looks dead again on the GFS...just not much development, northern stream crush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 not even a sprinkle at 108. This winter sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 In this crappy winter the VD storm is the best we are going to do. Flawed, mixed POS "event." Looking past those little turd storms for the big one has not worked at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Discouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That trough might go negative in time to give Iceland a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wow...really doesn't even develop anything offshore. Just a huge 1010mb bag of WTF 1000 miles east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Euro wins yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 That trough might go negative in time to give Iceland a nice storm. Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like the energy hitting the nw is pushing the trough along (unfavorably) and not letting things amp up like we were hoping. Is this a fair assessment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 In this crappy winter the VD storm is the best we are going to do. Flawed, mixed POS "event." Looking past those little turd storms for the big one has not worked at all. feels like a nina winter whatever it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like the energy hitting the nw is pushing the trough along (unfavorably) and not letting things amp up like we were hoping. Is this a fair assessment? Seems fair. Probably would have liked to see the energy dig further south and pop the western ridge rather than just blowing through. The spacing just seems to be too tight right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gorgeous setup at 153. +PNA, two s/w's with phase potential, big 50/50, negative or neutral NAO...Let's see how it goes all to hell. I'm glad you said it. At the very least the cutter will probably be close to a runner. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Gorgeous setup at 153. +PNA, two s/w's with phase potential, big 50/50, negative or neutral NAO...Let's see how it goes all to hell. I'm glad you said it. At the very least the cutter will probably be close to a runner. Baby steps. Gonna cut it to Detroit Cleveland. Wouldn't be so funny if it wasn't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 ****. Wxusaf, I accidentally deleted ur post. Damn iPhone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Haterz hate. Luckily I quoted it first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 12z has the departing 50-50 down to 944mbs. Wow. Just slow that damn thing down and park it please. Setup favors a west track but at least there are some things that can get in the way. Not ready to go all in yet. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Thanks for your informative response. Quick question. I have been under the impression that generally a sharper through gives you a little more leeway on the timing of these shortwaves as well as better amplification as opposed to a broader trough. I am curious if this is correct. that is a generalization but sharper is usually better, but there are so many moving parts in the equation its not just one thing. Timing is a huge issue, if you get a nice vort into the trough at the right time, it will amplify and the trough will sharper up. Of course if it goes negative too soon...cutter, of course unless you have a really good -NAO block... see it just depends. What you want from each of those independent factors depends to a large degree on the others. Lots of moving parts that have to come together in the right way. There is no simple answer. But if you want to simplify it to a few things we need to see to know the setup has promise, the trough has to dig to at least south of our latitude, you want the h5 vort to track to your south, and you generally want the ridge axis out west to be somewhere around the great basin. Those 3 at least set us up to have a chance. Of course a -NAO and good cold air source help and a million other meso scale things like the timing of the sw's and all end up deciding the final outcome. We can have the perfect setup, +PNA, -NAO, perfect ridge and trough position, and not get anything if the timing is off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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