lsukev Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS is also showing more opportunities beyond PD. It's kinda like a carrot on a stick, isn't it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hell of a storm signal at this range. About all you can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Does Wes like this threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 LOL at Ji freaking out over the gfs op run an hour ago only to have the GEFS give the best storm signal I have seen in 2 years. At 100 hours plus I will take the GEFS mean over the op run, especially with this strong of a signal. Again, not spiking the ball yet, but Ji you need to chill and ride the train all the way to the station on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 now that is a storm signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GGEM has an inland runner still... I still love this threat as our best chance in a long long time. I also think we have a shot at something after that if the -nao hangs around a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 I agree with earthlight so far through 90... looks like something might be brewing... EDIT: well it looked that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The GEFS 06Z at hour 108 has a great look (Even better then the 00Z) leading into the potential PD3. Edit: And once again the ensembles have a strong signal for PD3. Now all we need is to get the Euro on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I am punting on the VD storm, maybe we get an inch of wet snow, but that doesn't do it for me. My focus is on this weekend. The 6z GFS run looks worse than yesterday's 6z run, but it is bringing that trough straight down to FL again (and further east). No way that is happening that quickly. The 6z NAM though looks better than the 6z GFS at least in terms of set-up (i.e., what's happening with the southern stream). So I am on board with some amount of snow this weekend, let's see what develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The GEFS 06Z at hour 108 has a great look (Even better then the 00Z) leading into the potential PD3. Edit: And once again the ensembles have a strong signal for PD3. Now all we need is to get the Euro on board. I don't really see that...much farther OTS than 0z. 0z was an impressive look. 18z yesterday was pretty far OTS. Euro ensembles look better than the Op, but still not great for us. Basically a Miller-B scenario at our latitude and fairly far OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't really see that...much farther OTS than 0z. 0z was an impressive look. 18z yesterday was pretty far OTS. Euro ensembles look better than the Op, but still not great for us. Basically a Miller-B scenario at our latitude and fairly far OTS. You don't think the setup @108 leading into the potential PD3 looks better? I do agree 00Z had a better look after that time period but I really thought this look was better myself. Note: There is a 6 hour lag between these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just having the trough deeper doesn't necessarily mean it's better. It's still a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just having the trough deeper doesn't necessarily mean it's better. It's still a fish. In a way it can make it worse if you ask me... Especially if it digs east more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't really see that...much farther OTS than 0z. 0z was an impressive look. 18z yesterday was pretty far OTS. Euro ensembles look better than the Op, but still not great for us. Basically a Miller-B scenario at our latitude and fairly far OTS. Do you and some other meteorologists feel that the neutral ENSO state is keeping us locked into this "meh" pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Do you and some other meteorologists feel that the neutral ENSO state is keeping us locked into this "meh" pattern? I think zwyts has described the ENSO problems affecting us quite well. We needed the Nino to peak more strongly over the summer and into fall. It just went right back to neutral. So the southern stream was never able to get going and we're still stuck in a more Nina-ish pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just having the trough deeper doesn't necessarily mean it's better. It's still a fish. Wasn't really talking about the depth of the trough. I think many times the models overplay that and wouldn't be surprised to see them draw back a little on that as we get closer. I was referring more to the fact that the trough is a little sharper and not as broad with what looks to be slightly better heights building in under the 50/50. All in all I am just looking for some possible signs towards a solution that brings it up the coast but I do agree at this time they look more like fish storms which makes the 00Z result even more surprising. Edit: Of course thinking about it for a moment these things I am seeing might be more a function of the 6 hour lag between frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I am hoping euro will trend or come on target for pd3 today. There was some other storms as we approach march. Once the pattern breaks down, spring is in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 there are still a fair amount of 6z ensemble members that are exciting but not as many as 00z. If there is no storm by 00z tonight...it might be punt time again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I am hoping euro will trend or come on target for pd3 today. There was some other storms as we approach march. Once the pattern breaks down, spring is in the air After next week, we may be done. Not that this winter ever really got going. Everything is riding on the weekend storm, and the chance of a storm next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 there are still a fair amount of 6z ensemble members that are exciting but not as many as 00z. If there is no storm by 00z tonight...it might be punt time again You don't punt a setup like this when its still more then 3 days away. If we get inside 72 hours, the energy for the storm is over well sampled areas and we still see no model movement towards a storm, THEN it might be time to call out the special teams. You don't punt just because its 3rd and 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 After next week, we may be done. Not that this winter ever really got going. Everything is riding on the weekend storm, and the chance of a storm next week. Agreed, the MJO is trucking again, so we have about a 10 day window now, then it gets into phase 4 and were toast. I think we still have a legit chance this weekend, then we have one and perhaps two chances following it next week. If the MJO really continues to fly we might get one last hail mary shot at snow mid March, but climo argues that would be more for areas NW of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 There is some time left for this to trend back to us, but when you see the progression it does nothing for confidence. We got only a few pieces left on this chessboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Wasn't really talking about the depth of the trough. I think many times the models overplay that and wouldn't be surprised to see them draw back a little on that as we get closer. I was referring more to the fact that the trough is a little sharper and not as broad with what looks to be slightly better heights building in under the 50/50. All in all I am just looking for some possible signs towards a solution that brings it up the coast but I do agree at this time they look more like fish storms which makes the 00Z result even more surprising. Edit: Of course thinking about it for a moment these things I am seeing might be more a function of the 6 hour lag between frames. A lot of it does have to do with the 6 hour differential. Furthermore, having a nice trough position does not always help if the sw that develops the storm is not rounding the base of the trough at the correct time. You need it to be in synce. 0z was, 6z not so much. There are still several members that develop a storm, so I am not punting but it was a definite step back from 0z. 0z was about as strong a storm signal as you will ever see on an ensemble at that range. Plus, looking at one point in time is not going to give you the whole picture either. It might look great in a vacume but when you see how it evolves something pushes the trough too far east or suppresses the vort and it goes wrong from there. I know I posted a snapshot in my earlier response last night to the 0z GEFS but that was because someone had already posted the end result and I was simply adding the upper level support for why we saw that result. The trough on the 6z is a little too progressive, shifts east a bit too much and the storm ends up OTS. The 0z was less progressive, the trough stalled out more and allowed the system to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Agreed, the MJO is trucking again, so we have about a 10 day window now, then it gets into phase 4 and were toast. I think we still have a legit chance this weekend, then we have one and perhaps two chances following it next week. If the MJO really continues to fly we might get one last hail mary shot at snow mid March, but climo argues that would be more for areas NW of the cities. Can you tell me if the picked up pace of the MJO progression has a chance of stalling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 A lot of it does have to do with the 6 hour differential. Furthermore, having a nice trough position does not always help if the sw that develops the storm is not rounding the base of the trough at the correct time. You need it to be in synce. 0z was, 6z not so much. There are still several members that develop a storm, so I am not punting but it was a definite step back from 0z. 0z was about as strong a storm signal as you will ever see on an ensemble at that range. Plus, looking at one point in time is not going to give you the whole picture either. It might look great in a vacume but when you see how it evolves something pushes the trough too far east or suppresses the vort and it goes wrong from there. I know I posted a snapshot in my earlier response last night to the 0z GEFS but that was because someone had already posted the end result and I was simply adding the upper level support for why we saw that result. The trough on the 6z is a little too progressive, shifts east a bit too much and the storm ends up OTS. The 0z was less progressive, the trough stalled out more and allowed the system to amplify. Lets not forget that the models can't resolve sw placement very well inside of 84 let alone 100+. Won't take much of a sw either. Even a modest piece at the right time will get spinning really easy at the bottom of a trough like this. And the gulf is open for biz. My gut say we get multiple runs of interesting looks going forward but none can be deposited in the bank until we're inside of 84ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Can you tell me if the picked up pace of the MJO progression has a chance of stalling? Use this link. Has phase diagrams for all the globals and a few things I've never heard of before. MJO is tricky. Skill is usually so so at best. However, if you check all the globals and ens, they all briskly move it through 1-2-3-4. I would say the odds favor it continuing. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml It's not a bible though. Moving through the unfavorable phases is far from a lock of warm. Plus, the strength of the signal is important. It's not all that strong as progged. Things like a -nao can trump the mjo expected condition very easily. La La land gfs keeps showing the best -nao of the winter coming up in 10+ days. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 NAM looks terrible at 84 for weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 A lot of it does have to do with the 6 hour differential. Furthermore, having a nice trough position does not always help if the sw that develops the storm is not rounding the base of the trough at the correct time. You need it to be in synce. 0z was, 6z not so much. There are still several members that develop a storm, so I am not punting but it was a definite step back from 0z. 0z was about as strong a storm signal as you will ever see on an ensemble at that range. Plus, looking at one point in time is not going to give you the whole picture either. It might look great in a vacume but when you see how it evolves something pushes the trough too far east or suppresses the vort and it goes wrong from there. I know I posted a snapshot in my earlier response last night to the 0z GEFS but that was because someone had already posted the end result and I was simply adding the upper level support for why we saw that result. The trough on the 6z is a little too progressive, shifts east a bit too much and the storm ends up OTS. The 0z was less progressive, the trough stalled out more and allowed the system to amplify. Thanks for your informative response. Quick question. I have been under the impression that generally a sharper through gives you a little more leeway on the timing of these shortwaves as well as better amplification as opposed to a broader trough. I am curious if this is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I'll take my chances with this and not worry about the mjo. I've watched more polar loops @ 500 this year than seinfeld episodes. The -nao has been showing over and over again for over a week. The signal keeps getting stronger. The nao is a tricky beast to forecast. A good -nao can pop up at relatively short leads. LR guidance is suspect at best but it's been consistent enough to pay attention to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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