NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 One member of the 18Z GEFS for the PD3 storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Sir, I don't want to crash your party as I believe this storm will happen but that map is from one member of the GFS ensemble. The mean is offshore like the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Sir, I don't want to crash your party as I believe this storm will happen but that map is from one member of the GFS ensemble. The mean is offshore like the OP run. Right where we want it. (At this range) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Sir, I don't want to crash your party as I believe this storm will happen but that map is from one member of the GFS ensemble. The mean is offshore like the OP run. Yea that is from P001 which of course is the snowiest member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 well, i'm not gonna make it for GFS/Euro to get to PD3...its gonna be huge. I'm gonna wake up to see this thread exploding about how huge the Euro is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 well, i'm not gonna make it for GFS/Euro to get to PD3...its gonna be huge. I'm gonna wake up to see this thread exploding about how huge the Euro is. Good morning, you didn't miss much on the 00Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 what a disaster. Nothing ever trends right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 what a disaster. Nothing ever trends right what do you mean? that's the problem everything is trending right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 its so close but keeps going the wrong way each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 its so close but keeps going the wrong way each run no way the gfs was winning this battle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Sucks but the low becomes one hell of a 50/50 going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The low is no further east than when I started following it. Another good one to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GFS is also showing more opportunities beyond PD. It's kinda like a carrot on a stick, isn't it?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Hell of a storm signal at this range. About all you can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Does Wes like this threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 LOL at Ji freaking out over the gfs op run an hour ago only to have the GEFS give the best storm signal I have seen in 2 years. At 100 hours plus I will take the GEFS mean over the op run, especially with this strong of a signal. Again, not spiking the ball yet, but Ji you need to chill and ride the train all the way to the station on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 now that is a storm signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 GGEM has an inland runner still... I still love this threat as our best chance in a long long time. I also think we have a shot at something after that if the -nao hangs around a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2013 Author Share Posted February 12, 2013 I agree with earthlight so far through 90... looks like something might be brewing... EDIT: well it looked that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The GEFS 06Z at hour 108 has a great look (Even better then the 00Z) leading into the potential PD3. Edit: And once again the ensembles have a strong signal for PD3. Now all we need is to get the Euro on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsnowman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I am punting on the VD storm, maybe we get an inch of wet snow, but that doesn't do it for me. My focus is on this weekend. The 6z GFS run looks worse than yesterday's 6z run, but it is bringing that trough straight down to FL again (and further east). No way that is happening that quickly. The 6z NAM though looks better than the 6z GFS at least in terms of set-up (i.e., what's happening with the southern stream). So I am on board with some amount of snow this weekend, let's see what develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The GEFS 06Z at hour 108 has a great look (Even better then the 00Z) leading into the potential PD3. Edit: And once again the ensembles have a strong signal for PD3. Now all we need is to get the Euro on board. I don't really see that...much farther OTS than 0z. 0z was an impressive look. 18z yesterday was pretty far OTS. Euro ensembles look better than the Op, but still not great for us. Basically a Miller-B scenario at our latitude and fairly far OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't really see that...much farther OTS than 0z. 0z was an impressive look. 18z yesterday was pretty far OTS. Euro ensembles look better than the Op, but still not great for us. Basically a Miller-B scenario at our latitude and fairly far OTS. You don't think the setup @108 leading into the potential PD3 looks better? I do agree 00Z had a better look after that time period but I really thought this look was better myself. Note: There is a 6 hour lag between these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just having the trough deeper doesn't necessarily mean it's better. It's still a fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just having the trough deeper doesn't necessarily mean it's better. It's still a fish. In a way it can make it worse if you ask me... Especially if it digs east more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I don't really see that...much farther OTS than 0z. 0z was an impressive look. 18z yesterday was pretty far OTS. Euro ensembles look better than the Op, but still not great for us. Basically a Miller-B scenario at our latitude and fairly far OTS. Do you and some other meteorologists feel that the neutral ENSO state is keeping us locked into this "meh" pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Do you and some other meteorologists feel that the neutral ENSO state is keeping us locked into this "meh" pattern? I think zwyts has described the ENSO problems affecting us quite well. We needed the Nino to peak more strongly over the summer and into fall. It just went right back to neutral. So the southern stream was never able to get going and we're still stuck in a more Nina-ish pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Just having the trough deeper doesn't necessarily mean it's better. It's still a fish. Wasn't really talking about the depth of the trough. I think many times the models overplay that and wouldn't be surprised to see them draw back a little on that as we get closer. I was referring more to the fact that the trough is a little sharper and not as broad with what looks to be slightly better heights building in under the 50/50. All in all I am just looking for some possible signs towards a solution that brings it up the coast but I do agree at this time they look more like fish storms which makes the 00Z result even more surprising. Edit: Of course thinking about it for a moment these things I am seeing might be more a function of the 6 hour lag between frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I am hoping euro will trend or come on target for pd3 today. There was some other storms as we approach march. Once the pattern breaks down, spring is in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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