hokierulz98 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This is even crueler for the DC folks. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnowdepth150.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 When you think what Dec and most of Jan brought this has been a remarkable turn around, likely most dramatic since 2006-07. What we wait on the time is some further west. It almost looks like even if it went right over Ocean City, Md that it would still be cold enough so temps dont look like the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Oh-so-close to pulling the phase (see around 132-h), but not quite. It looks kind of similar to the 00Z with the end result (which was OTS as well), but the trough is notably sharper so we don't get totally whiffed. Potential is still there, but yeah that was painfully close but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 JMA has no snow for PD3 Best thing I've heard all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Gfs is exactly where I would want it right now. Don't worry about details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lesson learned for me. In a Nina year everybody on the East Coast gets hammered except for DC, so always go with the model that shows a nice dry circle around DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This is even crueler for the DC folks. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfssnowdepth150.gif LOL! That's just comedy gold is what that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Gfs is exactly where I would want it right now. Don't worry about details. What about the Euro....is that where you want it? Not being coy...just asking. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 What about the Euro....is that where you want it? Not being coy...just asking. MDstorm Of course not but honestly it's had a horrible year. Been very inconsistent and lost at times. Furthermore it's really not that far off. It's just not putting it all together but the setup is there. It's no lock its always a long shot but we do have a chance at a significant system. Details at this range are useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Of course not but honestly it's had a horrible year. Been very inconsistent and lost at times. Furthermore it's really not that far off. It's just not putting it all together but the setup is there. It's no lock its always a long shot but we do have a chance at a significant system. Details at this range are useless. Yea, the euro isn't far from the gfs @ 500. And the beauty of such a sharp trough (if it verifies) is that even some harmless piece of energy coming down the back will naturally spin up at the base with little effort. The ul energy on the gfs is barely anything. If the trough wasn't so amped nothing would even come of it for the most part. Give us the setup and take our chances. I think the more interesting part as well is timing. Too early and it runs the apps (or worse) and too late and it clobbers a freighter in the n atl. But there is a decent sized window of time as the trough shifts slowly westward. GFS is going to kill our nerves. It's already clear that it's probably going to run some energy down the back of the trough each run. Every change in timing = a different result. This place is going to be epically happy and in dark despair every 6 hours. Would be nice to see the euro do something but my gut says it starts picking up on some of the same stuff the gfs is tomorrow sometime. Maybe tonight. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yea, the euro isn't far from the gfs @ 500. And the beauty of such a sharp trough (if it verifies) is that even some harmless piece of energy coming down the back will naturally spin up at the base with little effort. The ul energy on the gfs is barely anything. If the trough wasn't so amped nothing would even come of it for the most part. Give us the setup and take our chances. I think the more interesting part as well is timing. Too early and it runs the apps (or worse) and too late and it clobbers a freighter in the n atl. But there is a decent sized window of time as the trough shifts slowly westward. GFS is going to kill our nerves. It's already clear that it's probably going to run some energy down the back of the trough each run. Every change in timing = a different result. This place is going to be epically happy and in dark despair every 6 hours. Would be nice to see the euro do something but my gut says it starts picking up on some of the same stuff the gfs is tomorrow sometime. Maybe tonight. Who knows. I have liked the signal for that time period for a long time. The trough is finally deep enough and in the right spot. It doesn't always work out but the setup is good and we have a real shot. I'm not going to get too high or low over model runs until we're into the 72 hour range. That's when I would like to see the right trends start to emerge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 i just wrote ncep and asked them to expand the NAM to 384 LOL...first of all, you can't trust the NAM after day 2 (60 hrs), let alone out to 384. Secondly, the extension of the NAM is essentially what the DGEX is, with the GFS supplying the grid boundary conditions. Sort of related, the parallel NAM (online) has been a significant improvement over the operational version. EMC folks are telling me the switch to the new NAM may be sooner than later. Can't be a minute too soon! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 LOL...first of all, you can't trust the NAM after day 2 (60 hrs), let alone out to 384. Secondly, the extension of the NAM is essentially what the DGEX is, with the GFS supplying the grid boundary conditions. Sort of related, the parallel NAM (online) has been a significant improvement over the operational version. EMC folks are telling me the switch to the new NAM may be sooner than later. Can't be a minute too soon! :-) Is the parallel available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Is the parallel available? Good question. I can see it at work, but the links may be internal during the testing period. Unless we see it off the EMC/NCO modeling page, it's probably not available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Good question. I can see it at work, but the links may be internal during the testing period. Unless we see it off the EMC/NCO modeling page, it's probably not available. Perhaps you can give us updates on the parallel nam and what it's showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 There's really a parallel NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 There's really a parallel NAM? Yes. Much in the same way as the parallel GFS earlier last year before it became operational. I didn't look at it much at work today (busier focusing on the operational runs), but I did notice from the QPF progs that thd parallel NAM wasn't as robust with precip over our area for the 2/13 system compared to the operational run. I will see if I can post a link tomorrow if it is available for the public.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 I will see if I can post a link tomorrow if it is available for the public.. That would be really cool and a very bad idea at the same time. If there is a link we will be comparing 2 nams at the same time. Pure unfiltered madness will ensue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 One member of the 18Z GEFS for the PD3 storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Sir, I don't want to crash your party as I believe this storm will happen but that map is from one member of the GFS ensemble. The mean is offshore like the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Sir, I don't want to crash your party as I believe this storm will happen but that map is from one member of the GFS ensemble. The mean is offshore like the OP run. Right where we want it. (At this range) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Sir, I don't want to crash your party as I believe this storm will happen but that map is from one member of the GFS ensemble. The mean is offshore like the OP run. Yea that is from P001 which of course is the snowiest member. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 well, i'm not gonna make it for GFS/Euro to get to PD3...its gonna be huge. I'm gonna wake up to see this thread exploding about how huge the Euro is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 well, i'm not gonna make it for GFS/Euro to get to PD3...its gonna be huge. I'm gonna wake up to see this thread exploding about how huge the Euro is. Good morning, you didn't miss much on the 00Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 what a disaster. Nothing ever trends right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 what a disaster. Nothing ever trends right what do you mean? that's the problem everything is trending right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 its so close but keeps going the wrong way each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 its so close but keeps going the wrong way each run no way the gfs was winning this battle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 Sucks but the low becomes one hell of a 50/50 going forward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2013 Share Posted February 12, 2013 The low is no further east than when I started following it. Another good one to monitor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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