Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lol, certainly in his own mind, and probably in the minds of most here until I actually get excited about a storm threat. Then you'll all love me again. It's going to be a rough few years for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I dont like any threat for our latitude that is a late developer that requires a timed phase...they usually trend north and develop too late or go OTS we need an overrunning component...1/25/00's are extremely rare That's what I hated about the gfs this morning. The evolution as depicted is highly improbable. The way precip blossoms just to our southwest is way too risky. Even 1/25/2000 was already a well esstablished system, just a matter of coming up or not. When it comes to depending on a sysytem to literally mature when it's on our doorsteps painfully reminds of 12/30/2000. There can always be a precedent, but I agree we need an overrunning component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Lol, certainly in his own mind, and probably in the minds of most here until I actually get excited about a storm threat. Then you'll all love me again. No offense Wes, but how old are you? You sure there will be time for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's going to be a rough few years for you. The last three have been tough. This snow famine is the pits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 No offense Wes, but how old are you? You sure there will be time for that? Well played! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That's what I hated about the gfs this morning. The evolution as depicted is highly improbable. The way precip blossoms just to our southwest is way too risky. Even 1/25/2000 was already a well esstablished system, just a matter of coming up or not. When it comes to depending on a sysytem to literally mature when it's on our doorsteps painfully reminds of 12/30/2000. There can always be a precedent, but I agree we need an overrunning component. It's a really sharp trough though with some ull energy. Just not robust early on. Look @ 700. Good pull off the gulf and lift. It could be multiple vorts for all we know. One that pull modest overrunning followed by one that blows up (or a total whiff. it's tough to expect a good solution anytime soon). Anytime you get a sharp trough like this from the arctic circle all the way to the gom, many things can happen. It's kinda why I've been scratching my head a little with the euro. Looks prime @ 500 overall but nothing active of note anywhere until the trough swings through and things start popping where only a snow weenie on a fishing boat would care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I pretty much agree. They are rare birds. I'd be ready to almost punt it except that the UKMET also has it and it's not a bad model. Best news I've heard in two years. Something legitimate to watch. I likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We can do well with phased solutions but we need the northern branch to be digging in, slowing down, and for the phase to begin well south of our lattitude. These screaming west to east lakes vorts phasing off the mid atlantic coast are a lost cause for us usually. We need a northern system that is digging down the west side of a trough and phases into a STJ system. Those are our big dogs. What are your thoughts for our area on Wednesday night. I think we have a decent chances for several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro ens mean offshore as well for everyone. looks like we get about .1" with the front or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 What are your thoughts for our area on Wednesday night. I think we have a decent chances for several inches. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39300-v-day-storm/page-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 What are your thoughts for our area on Wednesday night. I think we have a decent chances for several inches. I think we are in a good spot, so long as expectations are reasonable. This doesn't look like a major snow, but a couple inches in our area seems possible. I don't see much reason this gets suppressed, the northern branch is not squashing as much right now, and the globals are starting to pick up on that. I also think we have just enough elevation in our area that these marginal events can work out for us pretty well. I think a small accumulation is very possible and even and outside chance at a moderate 3-5" thump event if we get a NAM like solution. I am trying to keep it low key since I know how much the DC area people are suffering right now, but I do like our area for the VD threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I feel kinda sorry for Wes. Covering winter weather around here is like covering The Chicago Cubs. You might get a few wins, but in a 90 game loss year, it doesn't mean much. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 euro ens mean offshore as well for everyone. looks like we get about .1" with the front or something. that "ghost" reflection of precip on the ensemble can be a good thing, its possible its from a few ensemble runs hinting at a more amplified solution giving that precip there for no apparent reason. Or like you said its just a front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It's a really sharp trough though with some ull energy. Just not robust early on. Look @ 700. Good pull off the gulf and lift. It could be multiple vorts for all we know. One that pull modest overrunning followed by one that blows up (or a total whiff. it's tough to expect a good solution anytime soon). Anytime you get a sharp trough like this from the arctic circle all the way to the gom, many things can happen. It's kinda why I've been scratching my head a little with the euro. Looks prime @ 500 overall but nothing active of note anywhere until the trough swings through and things start popping where only a snow weenie on a fishing boat would care. Yeah, I'm confused because I would have figured the Euro would have been the one model to show something while the GFS would be high and dry. The trough is very deep, so the meteorology with this set up is over my head. Whether theres a storm or not I was surprised the 2 meter temps were not colder for the weekend on today's Euro. With such a sharp trough and low thicknesses I would have expected colder readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 that "ghost" reflection of precip on the ensemble can be a good thing, its possible its from a few ensemble runs hinting at a more amplified solution giving that precip there for no apparent reason. Or like you said its just a front. in this case i think it's a front. it was showing up on the op on and off plus the precip is before the main event gets going offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 oh well euro has been lost a lot this year, lets hope it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think we are in a good spot, so long as expectations are reasonable. This doesn't look like a major snow, but a couple inches in our area seems possible. I don't see much reason this gets suppressed, the northern branch is not squashing as much right now, and the globals are starting to pick up on that. I also think we have just enough elevation in our area that these marginal events can work out for us pretty well. I think a small accumulation is very possible and even and outside chance at a moderate 3-5" thump event if we get a NAM like solution. I am trying to keep it low key since I know how much the DC area people are suffering right now, but I do like our area for the VD threat. Yeah, I didn't want to say too much either knowing how frustrating it's been for many. I always root for everyone in the region to do well so maybe things will improve a little for areas further south and everyone can get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think we are in a good spot, so long as expectations are reasonable. This doesn't look like a major snow, but a couple inches in our area seems possible. I don't see much reason this gets suppressed, the northern branch is not squashing as much right now, and the globals are starting to pick up on that. I also think we have just enough elevation in our area that these marginal events can work out for us pretty well. I think a small accumulation is very possible and even and outside chance at a moderate 3-5" thump event if we get a NAM like solution. I am trying to keep it low key since I know how much the DC area people are suffering right now, but I do like our area for the VD threat. Haven't really looked at the soundings for our generally area was wondering if you have? I'm guessing we are pretty toasty as well where we need some good rates to overcome the BL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Haven't really looked at the soundings for our generally area was wondering if you have? I'm guessing we are pretty toasty as well where we need some good rates to overcome the BL? Only the NAM, we are around 33 degrees during most of the precip at the surface and well below all layers above it, we would be snow. I would say anyone above 500 feet north of a line from Harpers Ferry to Reisterstown to West Chester would be just about all snow and probably not have much trouble accumulating. It would be very wet so 10-1 ratios at best but still...something. NAM would actually be a nice 5" type wet thump in our area, especially the higher hills around your area. From now on though I will only respond to VD storm stuff in the other thread, dont want to mess things up over here. Besides I doubt the majority of people from the area to our south want to hear about our snow potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro has been bad except for a few minor storms like sandy and memo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Just a thought... but it may not be a coincidence that the models that have a stronger VD system are also the ones that have a better PD system. There may be a relationship there. If so... the trend is in our direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Only the NAM, we are around 33 degrees during most of the precip at the surface and well below all layers above it, we would be snow. I would say anyone above 500 feet north of a line from Harpers Ferry to Reisterstown to West Chester would be just about all snow and probably not have much trouble accumulating. It would be very wet so 10-1 ratios at best but still...something. NAM would actually be a nice 5" type wet thump in our area, especially the higher hills around your area. From now on though I will only respond to VD storm stuff in the other thread, dont want to mess things up over here. Besides I doubt the majority of people from the area to our south want to hear about our snow potential. Thanks. Lost track and thought we were in the VD discussion. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Please don't jump on me guys excited about our potential for this weekend but does it look like 18z 84 hr NAM and yes I know it's the 84 hr NAM but it sure looks like it wants to dig a lot more out west compared to 12z GFS at the same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 JMA didnt even run today? Did they have a earthquake or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Damn, I didn't expect 84 hour NAM extrapolation for another 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Damn, I didn't expect 84 hour NAM extrapolation for another 24 hours. i just wrote ncep and asked them to expand the NAM to 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Damn, I didn't expect 84 hour NAM extrapolation for another 24 hours. you're getting old! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 i just wrote ncep and asked them to expand the NAM to 384 liar, they have you blocked I'm sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 JMA says no way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Must be wrong. Accuweather is already touting a big EC storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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