WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 And the giant 1010mb low spawns a 991mb low east of the benchmark at 216. Looks like a Miller B that misses us but (*fingers crossed!!*) gives SNE some much needed snow. Probs we get pity flurries while SNE gets to add to the spring snowpack at 240 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 And the giant 1010mb low spawns a 991mb low east of the benchmark at 216. Looks like a Miller B that misses us but (*fingers crossed!!*) gives SNE some much needed snow. Probs we get pity flurries while SNE gets to add to the spring snowpack at 240 hr. yea the euro and gfs have had different solutions for the last few days, with the Euro having more seperation between the 2 waves and the new england low being less inhibiting, the GFS has been advertising that the New ENgland low would bomb and sit there and dominate, and the next wave would basically get absorbed and eventually redevelop another low off SE New ENgland. Today the models are converging on the GFS scenario. I still think our best chance is the following 2 waves after the March 1-2 system. Hopefully as that system over New England finally relaxes and moves out, we get something to amplify behind it during that window of opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 i don't follow him. this was the only time i've mentioned him there: https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/287620310860189696 Think it's time for me to unfollow him, though it's nice entertainment at times. Anyway, I do hope the -NAO can help out and be our streak buster. I think we all are going just a bit nuts here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Talk about a big ol' bag of WTF at hour 192 on the Euro. About 5000 sq mile 1010 mb low... Perhaps another indication not to invest much energy in day 7+ computer solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 To be honest, I'm almost afraid to post in the Mid Atlantic forum because of how desperate the snow fans have become. I'm nervous to say it but I still think there is a 2007-like signal showing up Friday afternoon for N VA-MD-DC. It's not quite the same strength and doesn't have the same amount of moisture, but there is a shot of decent VVs/snow growth during the afternoon before the profiles warm aloft. Also, the low levels would wet bulb down during the snow to allow for some accumulation. If you just glanced at Friday, you would think it's no big deal...and maybe that's right. But the GFS/NAM continue to suggest a possible quick shot of accumulating wet snow down there, IMO. I love the Mount Laurel split on the models right now, haha... then northern suburbs benefit with the developing coastal possibly. Timing is sort of important (I guess it can't be as slow as the very wrong NAM solution) but what's more important here are the VVs. I think if we develop a nice band of mid level VVs with marginal profiles, it would come down as mostly snow before any warm up aloft. I'm not worried about the low levels with this one. The dews should be low still with this last piece of arctic air coming in today/preceding it, and youll be happy to hear the shot comes in between 12z and 18z friday on this euro run...its a modest 0.1-0.2" qpf shot verbatim, but its there nonetheless...it dies before reaching further northeast towards you (naturally) Maybe we actually have an outside chance of breaking our 2" streak Friday. Even a nice 1-1.5" that actually sticks on the roads would be sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I never wrote off the friday event. I haven't been all jacked up about it but the departing hp starts things off right. All comes down to how much moisture can be pushed into it. There's going to be a lot of hallucinations tomorrow night and friday morning. There will be some nice returns in the southern ohv and even nicer ones further south prior to the precip getting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Perhaps another indication not to invest much energy in day 7+ computer solutions? The solution in and of itself is not a reason to not invest in medium/long range progs...as chris87 and dtk remind us, if a model shows a solution, it is physically possible. But, as we all know, medium/long range progs should be used for generalities, not specifics. Maybe we actually have an outside chance of breaking our 2" streak Friday. Even a nice 1-1.5" that actually sticks on the roads would be sweet. Now that I look back, my personal IMBY streak is over 2 years for a 1.5" (!) event. Just pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Now that I look back, my personal IMBY streak is over 2 years for a 1.5" (!) event. Just pathetic. Pretty painful and hard to believe, maybe it ends Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 LWX afternoon AFD tosses us a small bone for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Now that I look back, my personal IMBY streak is over 2 years for a 1.5" (!) event. Just pathetic. You got me looking at my own climo. Other than the brutal streak, the thing that is striking about the last three winters is just how awful February, our top snow month, has been. My obs: Feb '11: 0.3" Feb '12: 0.3" Feb '13: 0.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 I want to say that 18z NAM should looks a little better based off the strength of the high and its position for our area.. also a bit more QPF in the Plains on teh 18z run than on teh 12z... grasping for snow straws Through 30 at least IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Even without as much backside energy the EURO still tries to develop some kind of weird low Day 9-10...Just imagine if it actually had stronger energy coming out like its previous runs. I still would keep an eye out on the Early March 1-2 storm because while we have that rotting ULL over the Lakes we have a strong black and +PNA forming which together could almost force this storm to form. It's the reason why some model runs have that ULL pinwheeling back around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Precip anemic on the 18z NAM. At least Chicago gets some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 LWX afternoon AFD tosses us a small bone for Friday It's so frustrating to read about the possibility of coastal development and it being rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 We got reverse nam'd. We'll be measuring our precip by the flake and pellet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It's so frustrating to read about the possibility of coastal development and it being rain. It makes me sick to my stomach knowing mostly rain from a coastal in February. Maybe we can get a little front end love. We'll see. BTW--The P (Plato) Storm should have been named Pleeplus (DME--a great show) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It makes me sick to my stomach knowing mostly rain from a coastal in February. Maybe we can get a little front end love. We'll see. BTW--The P (Plato) Storm should have been named Pleeplus (DME--a great show) I've tried hard not to complain here because I'm a believer in never letting anyone see you suffer, but we've already had a couple of situations this year where we had the track but not the cold air. We need a forced reboot. If Steve McKenna was in charge of snow, we'd be up to our necks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I guess if you want to look on the bright side...if the gl low wasn't there there would be no coastal in this case. So, the feautre that's screwing it all up is the same feature that's creating it in the first place. So that makes it ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 the Euro is probably the most horrendous than any run of the season imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 the Euro is probably the most horrendous than any run of the season imho Don't let 1 bad run of the euro mess with your mind. This storm is still 1 week away and a lot can happen. Mitch, this forum needs you to turn into a glass half full kind of guy for the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Don't let 1 bad run of the euro mess with your mind. This storm is still 1 week away and a lot can happen. Mitch, this forum needs you to turn into a glass half full kind of guy for the next 2 weeks. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Don't let 1 bad run of the euro mess with your mind. This storm is still 1 week away and a lot can happen. Mitch, this forum needs you to turn into a glass half full kind of guy for the next 2 weeks. you know life is good when the only thing you have to complain about is the weather I'm done with this winter it wasn't our year, maybe next year c'est la vie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 you know life is good when the only thing you have to complain about is the weather I'm done with this winter it wasn't our year, maybe next year c'est la vie Well, the pattern is active, messy, and blocky. At least there's a lot of ways to accidentally get some snow. I'm going even odds on a 2"+ event for some of us or a virtual shutout between now and march 10th. The models may want to make us cry with gl lows and wasted coastals but you can't deny the blocking and consistent nice placements of hp's in se canada. LR guessing isn't worth it anyway. Just 5 days ago the Friday storm was a 3-6 front end pasting. Even the beloved euro said it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Well, the pattern is active, messy, and blocky. At least there's a lot of ways to accidentally get some snow. I'm going even odds on a 2"+ event for some of us or a virtual shutout between now and march 10th. The models may want to make us cry with gl lows and wasted coastals but you can't deny the blocking and consistent nice placements of hp's in se canada. LR guessing isn't worth it anyway. Just 5 days ago the Friday storm was a 3-6 front end pasting. Even the beloved euro said it was. I still think Fri/ Sat is going to be something.....maybe not snow, but some winter wx of some kind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I still think Fri/ Sat is going to be something.....maybe not snow, but some winter wx of some kind you really want sleet or frz rain for winter wx?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I, too, am still holding out that we can have some winter weather on Frday. Slop is okay. Just make it "look" like winter for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 the Euro is probably the most horrendous than any run of the season imho You really are exaggerating here. Wait until 0z or the ones for the rest of the week. They may be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 ensembles are still nice looking for euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Well, the pattern is active, messy, and blocky. At least there's a lot of ways to accidentally get some snow. I'm going even odds on a 2"+ event for some of us or a virtual shutout between now and march 10th. The models may want to make us cry with gl lows and wasted coastals but you can't deny the blocking and consistent nice placements of hp's in se canada. LR guessing isn't worth it anyway. Just 5 days ago the Friday storm was a 3-6 front end pasting. Even the beloved euro said it was. That's about DC climo odds from here.. tho it drops like a rock the next week. Of course mount Dulles can get heavy snow into May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Ok some fun facts headed into march. Good news... Bwi has recorded 5"+ 42 times in 130 years. 32% prob. 10"+ 18 times. 14% prob. 20" 4 times. Also 1960 is showing up in the analogs and that was one of the 20" cases. Stop reading here is u want to have hope Bad news.... Of those 18 times bwi had 10" in march only one since 1964. Before 1964 17 times in 81 years or 21%. After 1 in 49 years. April snows bwi had over an inch 11 times from 1888 to 1945 and not once since. Obviously our march April snow climo has changed for the worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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