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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread Part 2


yoda

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How does the 26th look?

Possible some messy mix with the front end of the mw low but then another coastal develops and soaks us. Interestingly, the stacked 500 & 850 low kinda sit and spin and die over upstate ny. There is some dirty wrap around Wed-Thurs. Not a common evolution at all. I suppose a vort could rotate around the cyclonic flow and surprise us late next week. Then again, the solutions will change a couple hundred times before them.
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Possible some messy mix with the front end of the mw low but then another coastal develops and soaks us. Interestingly, the stacked 500 & 850 low kinda sit and spin and die over upstate ny. There is some dirty wrap around Wed-Thurs. Not a common evolution at all. I suppose a vort could rotate around the cyclonic flow and surprise us late next week. Then again, the solutions will change a couple hundred times before them.

 

Friday afternoon looks decent?  hour 57 is borderline snow at DCA...maybe sleet with warm nose up high.....any chance or will this fall apart?...cartopper?

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Friday afternoon looks decent? hour 57 is borderline snow at DCA...maybe sleet with warm nose up high.....any chance or will this fall apart?...cartopper?

All comes down to rates. I think we gotta go another day or so and see if the the front end piece that breaks off from the primary has enough juice. If we get into a period of decent precip early then I think we all have a chance at something. If precip shield all ragged and broken up then we can put a fork in ourselves. At least the column will likely support frozen for a time early on. What falls in it is tough to say.

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forget snow till March

I think we have 3 shots in March.  Around the 1-2 if the low over new england can get out of the way enough to let something develop south of us.  THe next wave around the 6th and then probably one last chance around the 10th before the NAO breaks down.  I think if DC is looking to break the 2" streak we have a decent chance of cashing in on one of those 3.  I like the last 2 the best right now, the first may be suppressed, the last two might have more of a shot as the low over the northeast pulls away. 

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He must be taking a beating from some DC folks today, so here is some fun with JB on Twitter:

 

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

So no misinterpretation.. I love the capital weather gang great for weather! I would ask them tho to go look at DC Feb/Mar snow against NAO

 

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

You will find your 'magic link" to big DC winters are usually the warm enso (86-87,02-03,65-66,09-10) and/or neg NAO

 

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

Neg NAO now for mid atlantic Dangerous since NAO Feb15-Apr strongest link to cold/snow with center in mid atl

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He must be taking a beating from some DC folks today, so here is some fun with JB on Twitter:

 

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

So no misinterpretation.. I love the capital weather gang great for weather! I would ask them tho to go look at DC Feb/Mar snow against NAO

 

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

You will find your 'magic link" to big DC winters are usually the warm enso (86-87,02-03,65-66,09-10) and/or neg NAO

 

Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi

Neg NAO now for mid atlantic Dangerous since NAO Feb15-Apr strongest link to cold/snow with center in mid atl

 

Someone should tell JB this is a new phenomenon of the last 30 years....prior to that median and mean were much closer

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