clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Euro was trying to pop the coastal on Sunday I posted about a couple of days ago. Its not gonna be strong enough for those of us out west. But you guys to the east may see something out of it. Something to keep an eye on anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 So was this Friday...very similar situation. I think that is very much a risk for the Feb 29-30 event as well...Great Lakes lows are a killer in this Nina-esque pattern. Very true but this one has a better chance in some respects (not sure that's saying much). The buzzsaw of death isn't as strong and flow @ 500 is a bit more favorable for moving a chunk our way. Low expectations of course but the general setup bears watching at the very least. Hey! Maybe it trends better over time!! Wouldn't that be something?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 idk folks, this is all getting pretty pathetic after 3 months at this point it's a fluke or nothing, and considering how many flukes we get around here, nothing remains the strongest contender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Looking at the euro and gfs ensembles, the signal is still good for the March 1 system on the EC not so much on the GFS. The difference is the handling of the Feb 26 cutter. The euro is more progressive with that, while the GFS turns it into a moster and crushes anything behind it. Either way the setup from March 1-10 still looks great, of course its coming right about when we run out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 idk folks, this is all getting pretty pathetic after 3 months at this point it's a fluke or nothing, and considering how many flukes we get around here, nothing remains the strongest contender thx deb although I wouldn't call it a fluke in the lw pattern. More like cashing in instead of completely wasting it. We've done nothing but waste every possible window so far. I'll take a roll of nickles at the window and call it a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Looking at the euro and gfs ensembles, the signal is still good for the March 1 system on the EC not so much on the GFS. The difference is the handling of the Feb 26 cutter. The euro is more progressive with that, while the GFS turns it into a moster and crushes anything behind it. Either way the setup from March 1-10 still looks great, of course its coming right about when we run out of time. Yeah, the first half of March is looking pretty cold relative to normal. Even without any real snow, I think spring is late this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 thx deb although I wouldn't call it a fluke in the lw pattern. More like cashing in instead of completely wasting it. We've done nothing but waste every possible window so far. I'll take a roll of nickles at the window and call it a season. and that's the problem, trying to buck a seasonal trend that has been horrid it's in that sense I suggest that anything of consequence would be a fluke look, I'm as disgusted as everyone else, but I've finally grown tired of chasing 7+ day events by the end of FEB no matter how "good" they look if we had an inch of snow for every good look on the computers at 7+ days this year, we'd all have our average snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hey, what do you know... as soon as the heavier precip comes in on the 12z NAM in the 60 hr range... bye bye CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Phineas is undefeated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 For some reason, Friday really is upsetting. If we could just get heavier precip, that would be an opportunity for a good winter event. The whole weekend still bears watching though. If not for snow, maybe for sleet or freezing rain. I have to be honest. At this point, I think I'd be happier to see a completely hostile pattern, warm temps on the models. I've had enough of "better patterns" and "chances". Of course, I can't control the weather or the models, but given the choice and the track record and the fact that I've basically lost any faith, I'm ready to divorce this winter and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hey, what do you know... as soon as the heavier precip comes in on the 12z NAM in the 60 hr range... bye bye CAD That CAD is often undermodeled even at this range. It's worth watching. Doesn't look like snow by any stretch, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 That CAD is often undermodeled even at this range. It's worth watching. Doesn't look like snow by any stretch, though. The disco from LWX this morning explains perfectly why the CAD is being kicked out and def makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That CAD is often undermodeled even at this range. It's worth watching. Doesn't look like snow by any stretch, though. 1030+ hp in an ok spot. Look @ 10m temps. You should keep an eye on this. Yea, warm air is invading above but still. You are in a good spot for a frozen variety. We know the drill, starts as snow and changes over when it's good and ready, not when forecasters say it will. The wildcard is how heavy the precip is. Won't know that till nearly gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The disco from LWX this morning explains perfectly why the CAD is being kicked out and def makes sense That explanation seems to be a little sketchy based on the latest NAM progs. The precip is definitely coming at us from a sw-ne direction, not w-e. And that's a pretty strong high sitting up in se Canada. I'm not sure why our winds would not be ne instead of se or even south. That seems like a large wind field to give to a 1006 low in Wisconsin and a 1014 low pressure area at the mouth of the Mississippi. They are the pros, so there's that. But still, I'll bet right now that it's tougher to warm than what we are seeing modeled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 This upcoming storm looks pretty brutal. Don't waste your time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 For some reason, Friday really is upsetting. If we could just get heavier precip, that would be an opportunity for a good winter event. The whole weekend still bears watching though. If not for snow, maybe for sleet or freezing rain. I have to be honest. At this point, I think I'd be happier to see a completely hostile pattern, warm temps on the models. I've had enough of "better patterns" and "chances". Of course, I can't control the weather or the models, but given the choice and the track record and the fact that I've basically lost any faith, I'm ready to divorce this winter and move on. I think the most frustrating part is how nice the CAD signature looks. All the models are in good agreement on that part. The cold air is really locked well into Virginia with that beautiful U shape look for hours in advance of the precip. It is like the cold air is just waiting for the precip but it takes so long for it to overrun the cold air. When it finally makes it in it has an extremely weak look and is very light. Hopefully the models start bumping up the QPF as we get closer. I think your area has a better chance with the front end portion than others farter notheast. It looks like the precip takes forever to get farter north into my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 maue has taken too many lessons from the big JB. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/304253723654361089 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 maue has taken too many lessons from the big JB. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/304253723654361089 is maue on this board? I guess I'm not a Board regular after all if he is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 maue has taken too many lessons from the big JB. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/304253723654361089 Does that storm give us any precip as depicted? I see it goes OTS between 216-240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 maue has taken too many lessons from the big JB. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/304253723654361089 He posts great maps on Twitter and on occasion will link to a good read. 95% of the time, however, his stream is unreadable due to all the politics and global warming junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Does that storm give us any precip as depicted? I see it goes OTS between 216-240. nope, barely anything north of the nc/va border.. most heavier stuff closer to the sc/nc border and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 maue has taken too many lessons from the big JB. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/304253723654361089 That is a WeatherBell map, so it makes perfect sense. I bet JB drew that one just for Maue to hype. Anyway, has anyone bought in for the March 1 deal? If so, can someone loan me a few chips? I burned the remainder of mine last week on JI's VD storm. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 That is a WeatherBell map, so it makes perfect sense. I bet JB drew that one just for Maue to hype. Anyway, has anyone bought in for the March 1 deal? If so, can someone loan me a few chips? I burned the remainder of mine last week on JI's VD storm. ;-) I might be in on the March 5-6 deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I might be in on the March 5-6 deal Alright. Let's lock that one in and break the streak! I swear 2 inches has to fall on the DMV....at some point in our lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The ever-present GL lows to make doubly certain there is no cold air on the maps for when moisture arrives through 162 is actually comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Truncation murders the Feb 29-30 storm, with the NY upper low serving as an accessory to the crime. Want that low a bit farther NW so the storm can stay closer to the coast and pull it back in. The duck is still on the pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The ever-present GL lows to make doubly certain there is no cold air on the maps for when moisture arrives through 162 is actually comical.Pesky 'lil critters. They won't go away. Why the persistence? Just our sorry crappy pattern this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 maue has taken too many lessons from the big JB. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/3042537236543610 Who is this guy? And 973 is pretty extraordinary though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Truncation murders the Feb 29-30 storm, with the NY upper low serving as an accessory to the crime. Want that low a bit farther NW so the storm can stay closer to the coast and pull it back in. The duck is still on the pond. The duck is on somebody's plate. These runs are just brutal. Coastals with heavy rain and G/L lows making sure it's rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The duck is on somebody's plate. These runs are just brutal. Coastals with heavy rain and G/L lows making sure it's rain for us. You really have to admire all of the ways we've been had this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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