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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread Part 2


yoda

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Yea. I don't usually get into regional wars but I have lots of friends in the NYC area and they were so whiny about missing that one storm god forbid and then they got 10" and 20" the next 2 weeks and they still acted like it was only so so because they didn't get the 50" snowpack Maryland did and it wasnt fair. They have started to think of themselves like they should always do way better then Philly south and climo says that's not the case.

 

 

Yeah their avg is like 3-4" higher than IAD and a good 6-7" less than your area...they've def been lucky recently. But pretty much everyone from Philly north has been lucky recently. DC/BWI had '09-'10 but missed out on '10-'11 and got shafted in '08-'09 while PHL/NYC did near or slightly above avg. We've had a lack of El Ninos recently which is probably the leading cause along with some bad luck in Ninas and neutrals for DC/BWI. We probably have a few '99-'00 and '98-'99 type winters coming to make up for it.

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I don't mind at all that n of us get more snow on average. It's a no brainer. Forget inches and think about percentages. We're getting smoked by all directions of the compass for 2 years. That's a bitter pill.

Find me the closest major location that is missing climo snow by a larger % than dca last 2 years. Florida doesn't count.

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The 20 inch storm they got the end of Feb. 2010 that missed us still irks me. I don't care that I had over 60 inches for the month up to that point. I wanted that storm. The Boxing Day storm goes without saying, but I'm still pissed about 12/30/2000. Those three storms make me much more bitter towards NY than I am towards Boston. Like PSU said Boston is supposed to get it NY is another story.

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The 20 inch storm they got the end of Feb. 2010 that missed us still irks me. I don't care that I had over 60 inches for the month up to that point. I wanted that storm. The Boxing Day storm goes without saying, but I'm still pissed about 12/30/2000. Those three storms make me much more bitter towards NY than I am towards Boston. Like PSU said Boston is supposed to get it NY is another story.

 

 

That was a nasty storm to watch if you werent in the snow, no matter what direction you were in. I got over 2 inches of rain from that storm. Not often that NYC is getting a blizzard of 20" of snow in February while 1000 feet in interior SNE is 40F with 2"+ of rain. I have no grounds to complain with the obscene seasonal totals of the past decade or so overall, but that storm still makes me cringe.

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I tell myself the odds of having in my book 2 snowless winters in a row are extremely low. 2.2" of snow in 2 years is ridiculous. With what looks like a pretty nice setup with a +PNA-

-AO/-NAO coming up in the first week of March. Something will eventually pop right? Lol. We might be drawing closer everyday towards spring but winter is not over yet!!!

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I tell myself the odds of having in my book 2 snowless winters in a row are extremely low. 2.2" of snow in 2 years is ridiculous. With what looks like a pretty nice setup with a +PNA-

-AO/-NAO coming up in the first week of March. Something will eventually pop right? Lol. We might be drawing closer everyday towards spring but winter is not over yet!!!

wow, I knew  it was bad, but that bad?   Is that at DCA? (The 2.2)

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I think we have all handled this historic snow drought very well all things considered.

It's not like we had a choice. But you're right, most people have kept their sense of humor about it. It really has been fascinating watching all the different ways we get screwed. But sooner or later there will be a surprise. Maybe Friday? Can never say definitely.

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So NAM trying to spruce something up at the end of the wrong. NICE cAD sig

I'll preface it with the obligatory "it's the NAM", but it keeps throwing a hair more moisture into an airmass that by its own projections doesn't get above freezing until at least Saturday. I really think if we can get some precip in on Friday morning we see some snow. There's a couple of SREFS that are pretty wet. I'd like to see that become reality just to see what might happen.

I've thrown caution to the wind and am just going with whatever looks the best. As Ian said, I'm numb at this point. Snow disappointment bounces off me like bullets off Superman.

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First time in years I actually read Ji's posts. And it was funny. I agree with WinterWX. We all know the cad will hold on a little longer than modeled. I think NW of the city sees some snow on Friday. Wont amount to anything though. 

 

As far as New England getting more snow. They are supposed to. And they get to freeze their nuts off in the spring while we are fishing and playing golf. Dont get me wrong. I love Boston. One of my favorite cities. But not a chance in hell I would live there.

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I don't believe in backlash but the GFS looks a smidge interesting Sat night/sun morning. Comma head blows up over us. Not cold enough yet but close enough to wonder. Fookin lakes low. A nice vort pass and even Bob Chill won't talk about it.

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I don't believe in backlash but the GFS looks a smidge interesting Sat night/sun morning. Comma head blows up over us. Not cold enough yet but close enough to wonder. Fookin lakes low. A nice vort pass and even Bob Chill won't talk about it.

I brought it up earlier today with the 12z euro. Its hard to pick out the details. Euro ran the vort through nc and off the coast. Gfs similar but temps suckier. The entire setup is a mess. My gut says here is more potential than we think. But what does that mean? T-1 on grass? Or surprise precip max of 1-3? Or zippo?

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The 26th bears watching. Low may cut far enough west to allow the 1030+hp in se Canada to go to work with the front end slug. Pretty good setup for some front end as is right now.

So was this Friday...very similar situation.  I think that is very much a risk for the Feb 29-30 event as well...Great Lakes lows are a killer in this Nina-esque pattern.  

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