HighStakes Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 3:03 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: For some reason, Friday really is upsetting. If we could just get heavier precip, that would be an opportunity for a good winter event. The whole weekend still bears watching though. If not for snow, maybe for sleet or freezing rain. I have to be honest. At this point, I think I'd be happier to see a completely hostile pattern, warm temps on the models. I've had enough of "better patterns" and "chances". Of course, I can't control the weather or the models, but given the choice and the track record and the fact that I've basically lost any faith, I'm ready to divorce this winter and move on. I think the most frustrating part is how nice the CAD signature looks. All the models are in good agreement on that part. The cold air is really locked well into Virginia with that beautiful U shape look for hours in advance of the precip. It is like the cold air is just waiting for the precip but it takes so long for it to overrun the cold air. When it finally makes it in it has an extremely weak look and is very light. Hopefully the models start bumping up the QPF as we get closer. I think your area has a better chance with the front end portion than others farter notheast. It looks like the precip takes forever to get farter north into my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 maue has taken too many lessons from the big JB. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/304253723654361089 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 3:51 PM, Ian said: maue has taken too many lessons from the big JB. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/304253723654361089 is maue on this board? I guess I'm not a Board regular after all if he is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 3:51 PM, Ian said: maue has taken too many lessons from the big JB. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/304253723654361089 Does that storm give us any precip as depicted? I see it goes OTS between 216-240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 3:51 PM, Ian said: maue has taken too many lessons from the big JB. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/304253723654361089 He posts great maps on Twitter and on occasion will link to a good read. 95% of the time, however, his stream is unreadable due to all the politics and global warming junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 3:55 PM, WxUSAF said: Does that storm give us any precip as depicted? I see it goes OTS between 216-240. nope, barely anything north of the nc/va border.. most heavier stuff closer to the sc/nc border and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 3:51 PM, Ian said: maue has taken too many lessons from the big JB. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/304253723654361089 That is a WeatherBell map, so it makes perfect sense. I bet JB drew that one just for Maue to hype. Anyway, has anyone bought in for the March 1 deal? If so, can someone loan me a few chips? I burned the remainder of mine last week on JI's VD storm. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 4:10 PM, Scraff said: That is a WeatherBell map, so it makes perfect sense. I bet JB drew that one just for Maue to hype. Anyway, has anyone bought in for the March 1 deal? If so, can someone loan me a few chips? I burned the remainder of mine last week on JI's VD storm. ;-) I might be in on the March 5-6 deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 4:11 PM, yoda said: I might be in on the March 5-6 deal Alright. Let's lock that one in and break the streak! I swear 2 inches has to fall on the DMV....at some point in our lifetime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The ever-present GL lows to make doubly certain there is no cold air on the maps for when moisture arrives through 162 is actually comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Truncation murders the Feb 29-30 storm, with the NY upper low serving as an accessory to the crime. Want that low a bit farther NW so the storm can stay closer to the coast and pull it back in. The duck is still on the pond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 4:24 PM, NE Balti Zen said: The ever-present GL lows to make doubly certain there is no cold air on the maps for when moisture arrives through 162 is actually comical.Pesky 'lil critters. They won't go away. Why the persistence? Just our sorry crappy pattern this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 3:51 PM, Ian said: maue has taken too many lessons from the big JB. https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/3042537236543610 Who is this guy? And 973 is pretty extraordinary though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 4:37 PM, WxUSAF said: Truncation murders the Feb 29-30 storm, with the NY upper low serving as an accessory to the crime. Want that low a bit farther NW so the storm can stay closer to the coast and pull it back in. The duck is still on the pond. The duck is on somebody's plate. These runs are just brutal. Coastals with heavy rain and G/L lows making sure it's rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 4:49 PM, stormtracker said: The duck is on somebody's plate. These runs are just brutal. Coastals with heavy rain and G/L lows making sure it's rain for us. You really have to admire all of the ways we've been had this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 4:44 PM, stormtracker said: Who is this guy? And 973 is pretty extraordinary though. he works with JB at weatherbell.. makes the model images etc. it is pretty big tho it's also day 8-9.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 4:49 PM, stormtracker said: The duck is on somebody's plate. These runs are just brutal. Coastals with heavy rain and G/L lows making sure it's rain for us. Almost drought free in the MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 5:12 PM, zwyts said: How does the 26th look?Possible some messy mix with the front end of the mw low but then another coastal develops and soaks us. Interestingly, the stacked 500 & 850 low kinda sit and spin and die over upstate ny. There is some dirty wrap around Wed-Thurs. Not a common evolution at all. I suppose a vort could rotate around the cyclonic flow and surprise us late next week. Then again, the solutions will change a couple hundred times before them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 5:18 PM, zwyts said: i just looked at soundings...ouch... I'm not too hung up on soundings. I'm not saying I expect much but it's a very complicated evolution with secondary devlopment, strong mw low, damming hp to the north. It's a big mess that will probably drop a big mess of rain but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 forget snow till March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 GGEM is trying to do something march 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 5:18 PM, zwyts said: i just looked at soundings...ouch... Whole run looked like an abomination to me. Cold, but not cold enough. Awful late winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 the 1993 superstorm is back on the 00z euro control and close call on the ECMWF OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 if you guys saw the euro control maps for 198-240 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 5:22 PM, zwyts said: Friday afternoon looks decent? hour 57 is borderline snow at DCA...maybe sleet with warm nose up high.....any chance or will this fall apart?...cartopper? NAM has .25+ before a changeover DCA-north and west. Would look like sleet mostly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 5:22 PM, zwyts said: Friday afternoon looks decent? hour 57 is borderline snow at DCA...maybe sleet with warm nose up high.....any chance or will this fall apart?...cartopper? All comes down to rates. I think we gotta go another day or so and see if the the front end piece that breaks off from the primary has enough juice. If we get into a period of decent precip early then I think we all have a chance at something. If precip shield all ragged and broken up then we can put a fork in ourselves. At least the column will likely support frozen for a time early on. What falls in it is tough to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 If we can't get snow maybe we can get a crap load of rain to drown the new generation of stink bugs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 5:20 PM, Ji said: forget snow till March I think we have 3 shots in March. Around the 1-2 if the low over new england can get out of the way enough to let something develop south of us. THe next wave around the 6th and then probably one last chance around the 10th before the NAO breaks down. I think if DC is looking to break the 2" streak we have a decent chance of cashing in on one of those 3. I like the last 2 the best right now, the first may be suppressed, the last two might have more of a shot as the low over the northeast pulls away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 5:46 PM, Kmlwx said: If we can't get snow maybe we can get a crap load of rain to drown the new generation of stink bugs. I've sort of considered making them our winter mascot, if not mantra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 5:24 PM, Ji said: the 1993 superstorm is back on the 00z euro control and close call on the ECMWF OP Dude, pull yourself together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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