ravensrule Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 good news is the euro mean doesn't have that giant rainstorm.. instead some low that goes right over us but 850s are cold. bad news is there's like no precip over the US for a week after that. maybe there's a bug. it's literally wall to wall nothing thru 360. I am really starting to think Phineas is up there with Wes as one of the best met's on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The absolute last thing this forum needs is the euro control being free. It goes out to 360 and shows blizzards every 15 minutes. We could pile up the model snow, though. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Friday is looking more and more like we will have the temps, at least a good portion of the morning, but can we get any precip. That song and dance is getting old quick. The latest SREFS are fairly moist looking, but the mean is the result of several really wet members and some bone dry ones. Early morning snows are nice. I've given up on a snow storm or snow cover. I'd be more than happy with a landscaper whitener in the daylight hours. Morning is better for that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I am really starting to think Phineas is up there with Wes as one of the best met's on the board. phineas and leesburg are underrated but dangerous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Friday is looking more and more like we will have the temps, at least a good portion of the morning, but can we get any precip. That song and dance is getting old quick. The latest SREFS are fairly moist looking, but the mean is the result of several really wet members and some bone dry ones. Early morning snows are nice. I've given up on a snow storm or snow cover. I'd be more than happy with a landscaper whitener in the daylight hours. Morning is better for that anyway. NAM has a nice CAD sig too....at 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 just predict a trace to 1" for every 'snow event' and you'll be the best forecaster ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 just predict a trace to 1" for every 'snow event' and you'll be the best forecaster ever I think that's pretty spot on, except you need to predict no snow on all forecasts beyond 5 days. You will be dead on about 98% of the time, if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 NAM has a nice CAD sig too....at 84 hours. Yes it is the NAM, but it does have around 0.1 precip for the 24 ending at 84 and ground temps at no point above 32 for the time period. Someone also said the Euro put out a bit of precip Friday. I don't know, but I guess you never know. First we had the precip and the temps, then it started removing the temps, then the precip, now the temps are back more in line with the early versions of the storm, maybe the precip slowly returns? Yeah, I actually typed that with a straight face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Just noticed the NWS forecasts now bring precip potential Thurs night (before there were none) and now have Friday as snow/rain with high of 33 (before was snow to rain and high of 40). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Note the differences in location of the ULL near the Lakes. If that doesn't get far enough east not enough cold air comes down. The GFS eventually shows a huge snowstorm because that ULL gets far enough east. Common ji, thought you'd be able to realize this.... The March 2001 storm did a wiggle with an ULL over SE Canada and shortwave in the south. GFS/EURO do similar things just and way different locations. EURO = raging rainstorm GFS= blizzard setup. It all comes down to how far east that ULL gets... euro.gif gfs1.gif There doesn't seem to be much of a differnce in the placement of that ULL on the EURO and GFS. Minor differences really mean a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 euro showing the wettest location on fri with temps marginal or better is bwi @ .11. DCA, JYO, IAD are less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 i almost killed myself after the march 2001 bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 i almost killed myself after the march 2001 bust What are you doing nowadays since you deleted your fb weather page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 What are you doing nowadays since you deleted your fb weather page? Here is my post from feb 13....not sure what I was thinking. What if we get an inch with some ice on top of it...would that constitute a snowstorm? Im going all in for the feb 21-22 system. If we dont get a snowstorm....im shutting the page down and finding a new hobby like knitting. I am guaranteeing this stor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Here is my post from feb 13....not sure what I was thinking. What if we get an inch with some ice on top of it...would that constitute a snowstorm? Im going all in for the feb 21-22 system. If we dont get a snowstorm....im shutting the page down and finding a new hobby like knitting. I am guaranteeing this stor mini jb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 phineas and leesburg are underrated but dangerous Common sense is very underrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 i almost killed myself after the march 2001 bust Maybe Wes has some connections with the developers at NCEP so we can see if the second time's the charm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 18z gfs shows 1-2 inches of pure snow Fri afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 18z gfs still has an ok vort near texarkana and ok block to the N @ d8. It's not going west at least if you believe it even exists. Ok Ji, you can take it from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wow truncation looks like a random map from the vault at 204. Worthless after 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 18z gfs shows 1-2 inches of pure snow Fri afternoon That's a tight little window for that to happen. There might be about 6 hours of moderate snow as modeled. There is also the warm layer at around 8000 feet. I don't know what effect that will have.And then the CAD erodes rather quickly after the initial burst of snow. Fingers crossed for the 1 to 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 This from NWS Blacksburg is confusing. Not sure what they are looking at for Friday. In one sentence they mention significant winter event but then say ice accumulations less than tenth of an inch probably hundreds of an inch. I don't see this being a big deal right now like I once did. The main feature to be concerned with during this period will be the passage of yet another challenging and likely significant winter weather event for Thursday night and Friday as the cold front nears our area. Warm moist air aloft will begin to build into the area Thursday night...however cold and dry high pressure east of the Appalachians will keep our surface temperatures below freezing through most of the night. Believe precipitation entering the area late Thursday evening will start off as snow...however as warmer air continues to build in above the surface...will see snow transition to sleet and freezing rain for much of the area shortly after midnight. At this point...looking for a tenth of an inch or less in ice accumulations...with highest accumulations found along portions of the Blue Ridge into the Greenbrier valley and the Alleghany Highlands. A few hundredths of an inch of icing is expected for much of the piedmonts region. Believe this icing event will significantly impact the Friday morning commute across the area...and latest forecast model guidance suggests that temperatures will not rise significantly above freezing until approaching noon...making for slow melting. Temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 30s for Friday afternoon highs. By Friday night...expect drying conditions as the cold front moves east of the area...with high pressure building in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 While we enjoy our .11 ....18z Gfs gives Boston 2-3 feet of snow this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 While we enjoy our .11 ....18z Gfs gives Boston 2-3 feet of snow this weekend I hate that place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 While we enjoy our .11 ....18z Gfs gives Boston 2-3 feet of snow this weekend Maybe it will fall into the ocean, so we do not have to be so miserable any longer watching them get blasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 They are supposed to get to get more snow then us. Comparing us to New England is just going to lead to pain. Now NYC having the run they are on is a little weird. NYC should get in on the southern edge of some of new England's storms but at the same time in a more normal year they should miss a few to the south or maybe get a storm that hugs the coast and they change over while we get snow. Those 2 latter types have gone extinct and now all we have are the New England storms. Feb 5-6, 2010 was pretty painful for NYC....but you are right they have been on a heater recently. Though Feb 8-9 this year was probably tough to swallow in how close they were to historic totals...they still got a nice solid event (11" I think?) but literally 20 miles away saw 2-3 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 my mother's family were from Stratford, CT as a child, we would go up for a week in the summer, but it was really no different than suburban Baltimore and Bridgeport, a few miles away, was like Sparrows Point, the east side of Balt. City I don;t have any bad memories, but then the last time I was there was the weekend Elvis Presley died so I'm sure things have changed! i lived in a place where a bunch of people i went to school with lived on roads named after their family etc. but most also didnt go to college and worked on the farm or at the bar the rest of their lives. weird social vibe all around in new england imo. nice people but odd. maybe it's because my dream was never to settle down and put my kids in good schools and stare at deer all day. i'd much rather live in this area though perhaps i've just become a city person. snow is a small part of life--as if you need a reminder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think we have all handled this historic snow drought very well all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Feb 5-6, 2010 was pretty painful for NYC....but you are right they have been on a heater recently. Though Feb 8-9 this year was probably tough to swallow in how close they were to historic totals...they still got a nice solid event (11" I think?) but literally 20 miles away saw 2-3 feet. Yea. I don't usually get into regional wars but I have lots of friends in the NYC area and they were so whiny about missing that one storm god forbid and then they got 10" and 20" the next 2 weeks and they still acted like it was only so so because they didn't get the 50" snowpack Maryland did and it wasnt fair. They have started to think of themselves like they should always do way better then Philly south and climo says that's not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think we have all handled this historic snow drought very well all things considered. im guessing a lot of people just went numb eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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