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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread Part 2


yoda

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For some reason, Friday really is upsetting.  If we could just get heavier precip, that would be an opportunity for a good winter event.

 

The whole weekend still bears watching though.  If not for snow, maybe for sleet or freezing rain.

 

I have to be honest.  At this point, I think I'd be happier to see a completely hostile pattern, warm temps on the models.  I've had enough of "better patterns" and "chances".  Of course, I can't control the weather or the models, but given the choice and the track record and the fact that I've basically lost any faith, I'm ready to divorce this winter and move on.

I think the most frustrating part is how nice the CAD signature looks. All the models are in good agreement on that part. The cold air is really locked well into Virginia with that beautiful U shape look for hours in advance of the precip. It is like the cold air is just waiting for the precip but it takes so long for it to overrun the cold air. When it finally makes it in it has an extremely weak look and is very light. Hopefully the models start bumping up the QPF as we get closer. I think your area has a better chance with the front end portion than others farter notheast. It looks like the precip takes forever to get farter north into my area.

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Does that storm give us any precip as depicted?  I see it goes OTS between 216-240.  

nope, barely anything north of the nc/va border.. most heavier stuff closer to the sc/nc border and south.

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maue has taken too many lessons from the big JB.

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/304253723654361089

 

That is a WeatherBell map, so it makes perfect sense.  I bet JB drew that one just for Maue to hype.  Anyway, has anyone bought in for the March 1 deal?  If so, can someone loan me a few chips?  I burned the remainder of mine last week on JI's VD storm.  ;-) 

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That is a WeatherBell map, so it makes perfect sense.  I bet JB drew that one just for Maue to hype.  Anyway, has anyone bought in for the March 1 deal?  If so, can someone loan me a few chips?  I burned the remainder of mine last week on JI's VD storm.  ;-) 

 

I might be in on the March 5-6 deal

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Truncation murders the Feb 29-30 storm, with the NY upper low serving as an accessory to the crime.  Want that low a bit farther NW so the storm can stay closer to the coast and pull it back in.  The duck is still on the pond.  

The duck is on somebody's plate.

 

These runs are just brutal.   Coastals with heavy rain and G/L lows making sure it's rain for us.

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How does the 26th look?

Possible some messy mix with the front end of the mw low but then another coastal develops and soaks us. Interestingly, the stacked 500 & 850 low kinda sit and spin and die over upstate ny. There is some dirty wrap around Wed-Thurs. Not a common evolution at all. I suppose a vort could rotate around the cyclonic flow and surprise us late next week. Then again, the solutions will change a couple hundred times before them.
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Friday afternoon looks decent? hour 57 is borderline snow at DCA...maybe sleet with warm nose up high.....any chance or will this fall apart?...cartopper?

All comes down to rates. I think we gotta go another day or so and see if the the front end piece that breaks off from the primary has enough juice. If we get into a period of decent precip early then I think we all have a chance at something. If precip shield all ragged and broken up then we can put a fork in ourselves. At least the column will likely support frozen for a time early on. What falls in it is tough to say.

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forget snow till March

I think we have 3 shots in March.  Around the 1-2 if the low over new england can get out of the way enough to let something develop south of us.  THe next wave around the 6th and then probably one last chance around the 10th before the NAO breaks down.  I think if DC is looking to break the 2" streak we have a decent chance of cashing in on one of those 3.  I like the last 2 the best right now, the first may be suppressed, the last two might have more of a shot as the low over the northeast pulls away. 

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