Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 EURO is doing the March 4-6 2001 "wiggle" I call it, except it's doing it WAY too far west. We need the initial low to be farther east like GFS. what are you looking at. At 168...the ULL that would create the storm is still near Cali Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Huge rain event. If only it was a few weeks later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 maybe Feb 28 is too early....maybe its the other ULLin Calif lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 its musically impossible for the low to do this with the 570 heights near Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 its musically impossible for the low to do this with the 570 heights near Greenland gotta kill that lakes low somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 All that matters are the ensembles at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 gotta kill that lakes low somehow. That's been the problem and probably will be the problem with the feb 28 low. Still acting like a nina on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wrap around on day 10??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wrap around on day 10??? more like wrap it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 take a good hard look at d8-10 because it's the last time you will see this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 take a good hard look at d8-10 because it's the last time you will see this solution Oh, it'll probably work out just fine. I don't have precip maps, but I imagine that would be about 3 inches of rain with temps in the upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 NWS usually likes to go with a GFS/Euro compromise on storm track. I would take that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 BOth options are believable, the models are not going to get the details that will determine the exact storm track right at this range. But the signal for a storm is there. Of course given the seasonal trend its best to go in expected our area to get screwed somehow, but at least its one last thing to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 BOth options are believable, the models are not going to get the details that will determine the exact storm track right at this range. But the signal for a storm is there. Of course given the seasonal trend its best to go in expected our area to get screwed somehow, but at least its one last thing to track. euro also has a powerful low at 240 in the desert S/w. Maybe that is our storm in the 28th storm is just an appetizer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 we have till Mar 10 to get a storm. Otherwise, euro runs start at 1:45 am instead of 12:45am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Our best chance would be as the NAO breaks down. If we do get a +PNA at the same time we still have the -NAO, chances are the way that breaks down is with a major amplified system on the east coast. Usually the last wave is the one that deepends the furthest south. NOT always but often times that gives us the best chance. Of course we are quickly running out of time also, so this is a double edged sword. We are running out of "nexts" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 we have till Mar 10 to get a storm. Otherwise, euro runs start at 1:45 am instead of 12:45am No kidding. Feb sun angle has nothing on the extra hour of sun post DST. I'm still waiting to see what happens with PDIII. The setup is supposed to be more explosive than early Fed 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 euro control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 euro also has a powerful low at 240 in the desert S/w. Maybe that is our storm in the 28th storm is just an appetizer Did you look at the H5 on the euro? It ends up with its solution by doing a pinwheel with the H5 low from the day 5 cutter up over the lakes. I have seen that on models hundreds of times but rarely does it happen in reality. ALso, the H5 cuts off and tracks from TN over central NC then exits off Norfolk VA. That is not a bad track, actually about perfect for us. THe problem is the initial surface low has developed so far west it cuts, as it would, but that H5 track would suggest to me there should be a secondary development way before the Euro surface indicates. Either way that H5 suggests to me there is major potential, without much adjustment. I also want to see the ensembles when they update. Last night the Euro ensembles had a much more GFS like solution. There is no way the models are going to show a major storm for us for every run for the next 7 days. I still think this looks like a good setup. At this range that just means we have a small chance at a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 euro control oooh. not 1..not 2...3 coastals? 192, 240, and 324. It's like Feb 2010 only bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 euro also has a powerful low at 240 in the desert S/w. Maybe that is our storm in the 28th storm is just an appetizer That storm that would follow the March 1 event could have potential but it is so dependent upon all the events before it. You are right the day 10 Euro looks like it might have something brewing but that is so far out, and is so unlikely to actually look that way in 10 days, its not worth getting into it. But I do think we have a couple chances in early March before the NAO breaks down, the last one probably being our best. Given its March they are still low probability, its just a shame we did not get this PNA/NAO configuration to line up during January or February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 what are you looking at. At 168...the ULL that would create the storm is still near Cali Ji the low near the Lakes is way farther east on the GFS, that sets up the intial confluence zone. We would need that much farther East. The wave that creates the storm is in the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Are there free, crappy ECMWF graphics available for the Euro control or is it pay per view only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Are there free, crappy ECMWF graphics available for the Euro control or is it pay per view only? the euro control is crap.. no reason to look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Note the differences in location of the ULL near the Lakes. If that doesn't get far enough east not enough cold air comes down. The GFS eventually shows a huge snowstorm because that ULL gets far enough east. Common ji, thought you'd be able to realize this.... The March 2001 storm did a wiggle with an ULL over SE Canada and shortwave in the south. GFS/EURO do similar things just and way different locations. EURO = raging rainstorm GFS= blizzard setup. It all comes down to how far east that ULL gets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 didn't see it mentioned yet. Euro has an area of vorticity passing underneath us on Sunday with a couple patches of measurable precip over and south of DC. 850's cold enough so I assume snow with tyipcal bl issues. There seems to be some interaction with the low spinning over the great lakes and maybe the front off the coast. I can't really tell. Maps hurt my eyes. Probably nothing but I'll never discount a vort passing south through NC and off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 the euro control is crap.. no reason to look Hey ABC1234 will not be happy with you, it has sniffed out 2 storms first since 1870. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 the euro control is crap.. no reason to look The CRAS is available. So the Euro control shoud be, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 good news is the euro mean doesn't have that giant rainstorm.. instead some low that goes right over us but 850s are cold. bad news is there's like no precip over the US for a week after that. maybe there's a bug. it's literally wall to wall nothing thru 360. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The CRAS is available. So the Euro control shoud be, too. The absolute last thing this forum needs is the euro control being free. It goes out to 360 and shows blizzards every 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.