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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread Part 2


yoda

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I don't believe in backlash but the GFS looks a smidge interesting Sat night/sun morning. Comma head blows up over us. Not cold enough yet but close enough to wonder. Fookin lakes low. A nice vort pass and even Bob Chill won't talk about it.

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I don't believe in backlash but the GFS looks a smidge interesting Sat night/sun morning. Comma head blows up over us. Not cold enough yet but close enough to wonder. Fookin lakes low. A nice vort pass and even Bob Chill won't talk about it.

I brought it up earlier today with the 12z euro. Its hard to pick out the details. Euro ran the vort through nc and off the coast. Gfs similar but temps suckier. The entire setup is a mess. My gut says here is more potential than we think. But what does that mean? T-1 on grass? Or surprise precip max of 1-3? Or zippo?

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The 26th bears watching. Low may cut far enough west to allow the 1030+hp in se Canada to go to work with the front end slug. Pretty good setup for some front end as is right now.

So was this Friday...very similar situation.  I think that is very much a risk for the Feb 29-30 event as well...Great Lakes lows are a killer in this Nina-esque pattern.  

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So was this Friday...very similar situation.  I think that is very much a risk for the Feb 29-30 event as well...Great Lakes lows are a killer in this Nina-esque pattern.  

 

 

Very true but this one has a better chance in some respects (not sure that's saying much). The buzzsaw of death isn't as strong and flow @ 500 is a bit more favorable for moving a chunk our way. Low expectations of course but the general setup bears watching at the very least. Hey! Maybe it trends better over time!! Wouldn't that be something??

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Looking at the euro and gfs ensembles, the signal is still good for the March 1 system on the EC not so much on the GFS.  The difference is the handling of the Feb 26 cutter.  The euro is more progressive with that, while the GFS turns it into a moster and crushes anything behind it.  Either way the setup from March 1-10 still looks great, of course its coming right about when we run out of time. 

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idk folks, this is all getting pretty pathetic after 3 months

at this point it's a fluke or nothing, and considering how many flukes we get around here, nothing remains the strongest contender

thx deb

although I wouldn't call it a fluke in the lw pattern. More like cashing in instead of completely wasting it. We've done nothing but waste every possible window so far. I'll take a roll of nickles at the window and call it a season.

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Looking at the euro and gfs ensembles, the signal is still good for the March 1 system on the EC not so much on the GFS.  The difference is the handling of the Feb 26 cutter.  The euro is more progressive with that, while the GFS turns it into a moster and crushes anything behind it.  Either way the setup from March 1-10 still looks great, of course its coming right about when we run out of time. 

Yeah, the first half of March is looking pretty cold relative to normal.  Even without any real snow, I think spring is late this year.

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thx deb

although I wouldn't call it a fluke in the lw pattern. More like cashing in instead of completely wasting it. We've done nothing but waste every possible window so far. I'll take a roll of nickles at the window and call it a season.

and that's the problem, trying to buck a seasonal trend that has been horrid

it's in that sense I suggest that anything of consequence would be a fluke

look, I'm as disgusted as everyone else, but I've finally grown tired of chasing 7+ day events by the end of FEB no matter how "good" they look

if we had an inch of snow for every good look on the computers at 7+ days this year, we'd all have our average snowfall

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For some reason, Friday really is upsetting.  If we could just get heavier precip, that would be an opportunity for a good winter event.

 

The whole weekend still bears watching though.  If not for snow, maybe for sleet or freezing rain.

 

I have to be honest.  At this point, I think I'd be happier to see a completely hostile pattern, warm temps on the models.  I've had enough of "better patterns" and "chances".  Of course, I can't control the weather or the models, but given the choice and the track record and the fact that I've basically lost any faith, I'm ready to divorce this winter and move on.

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That CAD is often undermodeled even at this range. It's worth watching. Doesn't look like snow by any stretch, though.

1030+ hp in an ok spot. Look @ 10m temps. You should keep an eye on this. Yea, warm air is invading above but still. You are in a good spot for a frozen variety. We know the drill, starts as snow and changes over when it's good and ready, not when forecasters say it will. The wildcard is how heavy the precip is. Won't know that till nearly gametime.

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The disco from LWX this morning explains perfectly why the CAD is being kicked out and def makes sense

 

That explanation seems to be a little sketchy based on the latest NAM progs.  The precip is definitely coming at us from a sw-ne direction, not w-e.  And that's a pretty strong high sitting up in se Canada.  I'm not sure why our winds would not be ne instead of se or even south.  That seems like a large wind field to give to a 1006 low in Wisconsin and a 1014 low pressure area at the mouth of the Mississippi.

 

They are the pros, so there's that.  But still, I'll bet right now that it's tougher to warm than what we are seeing modeled right now.

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