Ian Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I don't believe in backlash but the GFS looks a smidge interesting Sat night/sun morning. Comma head blows up over us. Not cold enough yet but close enough to wonder. Fookin lakes low. A nice vort pass and even Bob Chill won't talk about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Boston only gets 3 inches of liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 4:17 AM, Ji said: Boston only gets 3 inches of liquid What a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Another coastal low appears Day 6 into Day 7... and again we are too warm... annoying winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Good news is it looks like Boston mixes a bit so probably only about 2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 4:20 AM, yoda said: Another coastal low appears Day 6 into Day 7... and again we are too warm... annoying winter And again there is a low sitting over the Great Lakes. Woo hoo for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 March snowfalls are overrated anyway. Heavy to shovel and quickly turns into a sloppy mess. Even March 93 was mostly gone within 4-5 days in the IAD area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 4:14 AM, Ian said: I don't believe in backlash but the GFS looks a smidge interesting Sat night/sun morning. Comma head blows up over us. Not cold enough yet but close enough to wonder. Fookin lakes low. A nice vort pass and even Bob Chill won't talk about it. I brought it up earlier today with the 12z euro. Its hard to pick out the details. Euro ran the vort through nc and off the coast. Gfs similar but temps suckier. The entire setup is a mess. My gut says here is more potential than we think. But what does that mean? T-1 on grass? Or surprise precip max of 1-3? Or zippo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 00z major nor'easter feb 28-1. For the southeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 7:28 AM, Ji said: 00z major nor'easter feb 28-1. For the southeast another 216 hr snowstorm that wont materialize!! This winter cannot end soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 7:28 AM, Ji said: 00z major nor'easter feb 28-1. For the southeast Solutions are bouncing around 1000s of miles on the track but the signal is still there. Have to just wait until we are inside 120 before knowing if we have a shot. My gut says once the Pna pops we get 3 chances march 1-10 the last maybe the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 6z GFS obliges with a fantasy storm right in the middle of that march 1-10 window. Also, regarding the rest of that run, I may change my screen name to Great Lakes low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 7:28 AM, Ji said: 00z major nor'easter feb 28-1. For the southeast Don't forget it does a fujiwara and backs into New England. We can't deprive them their birthright. Getting sloppy ji. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The 26th bears watching. Low may cut far enough west to allow the 1030+hp in se Canada to go to work with the front end slug. Pretty good setup for some front end as is right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 1:03 PM, Bob Chill said: The 26th bears watching. Low may cut far enough west to allow the 1030+hp in se Canada to go to work with the front end slug. Pretty good setup for some front end as is right now. So was this Friday...very similar situation. I think that is very much a risk for the Feb 29-30 event as well...Great Lakes lows are a killer in this Nina-esque pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Euro was trying to pop the coastal on Sunday I posted about a couple of days ago. Its not gonna be strong enough for those of us out west. But you guys to the east may see something out of it. Something to keep an eye on anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 1:05 PM, WxUSAF said: So was this Friday...very similar situation. I think that is very much a risk for the Feb 29-30 event as well...Great Lakes lows are a killer in this Nina-esque pattern. Very true but this one has a better chance in some respects (not sure that's saying much). The buzzsaw of death isn't as strong and flow @ 500 is a bit more favorable for moving a chunk our way. Low expectations of course but the general setup bears watching at the very least. Hey! Maybe it trends better over time!! Wouldn't that be something?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 idk folks, this is all getting pretty pathetic after 3 months at this point it's a fluke or nothing, and considering how many flukes we get around here, nothing remains the strongest contender Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Looking at the euro and gfs ensembles, the signal is still good for the March 1 system on the EC not so much on the GFS. The difference is the handling of the Feb 26 cutter. The euro is more progressive with that, while the GFS turns it into a moster and crushes anything behind it. Either way the setup from March 1-10 still looks great, of course its coming right about when we run out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 2:17 PM, mitchnick said: idk folks, this is all getting pretty pathetic after 3 months at this point it's a fluke or nothing, and considering how many flukes we get around here, nothing remains the strongest contender thx deb although I wouldn't call it a fluke in the lw pattern. More like cashing in instead of completely wasting it. We've done nothing but waste every possible window so far. I'll take a roll of nickles at the window and call it a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 2:20 PM, psuhoffman said: Looking at the euro and gfs ensembles, the signal is still good for the March 1 system on the EC not so much on the GFS. The difference is the handling of the Feb 26 cutter. The euro is more progressive with that, while the GFS turns it into a moster and crushes anything behind it. Either way the setup from March 1-10 still looks great, of course its coming right about when we run out of time. Yeah, the first half of March is looking pretty cold relative to normal. Even without any real snow, I think spring is late this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 2:21 PM, Bob Chill said: thx deb although I wouldn't call it a fluke in the lw pattern. More like cashing in instead of completely wasting it. We've done nothing but waste every possible window so far. I'll take a roll of nickles at the window and call it a season. and that's the problem, trying to buck a seasonal trend that has been horrid it's in that sense I suggest that anything of consequence would be a fluke look, I'm as disgusted as everyone else, but I've finally grown tired of chasing 7+ day events by the end of FEB no matter how "good" they look if we had an inch of snow for every good look on the computers at 7+ days this year, we'd all have our average snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 Hey, what do you know... as soon as the heavier precip comes in on the 12z NAM in the 60 hr range... bye bye CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Phineas is undefeated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 For some reason, Friday really is upsetting. If we could just get heavier precip, that would be an opportunity for a good winter event. The whole weekend still bears watching though. If not for snow, maybe for sleet or freezing rain. I have to be honest. At this point, I think I'd be happier to see a completely hostile pattern, warm temps on the models. I've had enough of "better patterns" and "chances". Of course, I can't control the weather or the models, but given the choice and the track record and the fact that I've basically lost any faith, I'm ready to divorce this winter and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 2:44 PM, yoda said: Hey, what do you know... as soon as the heavier precip comes in on the 12z NAM in the 60 hr range... bye bye CAD That CAD is often undermodeled even at this range. It's worth watching. Doesn't look like snow by any stretch, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 3:06 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: That CAD is often undermodeled even at this range. It's worth watching. Doesn't look like snow by any stretch, though. The disco from LWX this morning explains perfectly why the CAD is being kicked out and def makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 3:06 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: That CAD is often undermodeled even at this range. It's worth watching. Doesn't look like snow by any stretch, though. 1030+ hp in an ok spot. Look @ 10m temps. You should keep an eye on this. Yea, warm air is invading above but still. You are in a good spot for a frozen variety. We know the drill, starts as snow and changes over when it's good and ready, not when forecasters say it will. The wildcard is how heavy the precip is. Won't know that till nearly gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 On 2/20/2013 at 3:19 PM, yoda said: The disco from LWX this morning explains perfectly why the CAD is being kicked out and def makes sense That explanation seems to be a little sketchy based on the latest NAM progs. The precip is definitely coming at us from a sw-ne direction, not w-e. And that's a pretty strong high sitting up in se Canada. I'm not sure why our winds would not be ne instead of se or even south. That seems like a large wind field to give to a 1006 low in Wisconsin and a 1014 low pressure area at the mouth of the Mississippi. They are the pros, so there's that. But still, I'll bet right now that it's tougher to warm than what we are seeing modeled right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 This upcoming storm looks pretty brutal. Don't waste your time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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