mattie g Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Phase 1 initiated Tracker...that was funny as hell when you first posted it, but now it's just scary. Except for Chill's reluctance to follow LR threats now, that is unbelieveably and frighteningly spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Is something trying to develop in the gulf this Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 48 hours: People begin posting the NAM and seeing more CAD than modeled Everyone rhat hasnt punted expects the next SREFs to be colder and wetter 12 hours: RAP shows it colder and wetter, desperate weenies unpunt and begin posing the HRRR and RAP run by run. People post obs 1° below modeled Posts about rates and sun angle appear Someone posts about Henry Margusity and jokes about his hype map Mid Atlantic Cycle of Life 240 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. Psu will say huge potential is there, and this one is REALLY it this time 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart Phase 1 initiated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Is something trying to develop in the gulf this Sunday? Won't matter. Constant barrage of lp in the lakes/n plains area takes us out of the game. Even if it did it would be rain. Unti the train of cutters either dissappears or one cuts further east (not likely because of blocking) we don't have much to talk about. I heard d10+ is looking ripe though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Won't matter. Constant barrage of lp in the lakes/n plains area takes us out of the game. Even if it did it would be rain. Unti the train of cutters either dissappears or one cuts further east (not likely because of blocking) we don't have much to talk about. I heard d10+ is looking ripe though. Yup. Constant g/l lows. It's comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 day 8 looks really nice with a nice vort over tx/ok border and lp breaking out. nice block to our north. I'll let the d10 guys handle it from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS pops a big Feb 29-30 storm, but it's mostly a fish. Gives us some snow before it heads OTS. Western s/w kicks it along just a little bit. I'd take this run as a win at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS day 8/9 threat # (insert large number here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS brings a new western kicker into the Day 8-9 storm which doesnt allow for the crazy lob phase ala March 4-6 2001 the 00z GFS was showing. Still shows a decent storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS pops a big Feb 29-30 storm, but it's mostly a fish. Gives us some snow before it heads OTS. Western s/w kicks it along just a little bit. I'd take this run as a win at this stage. screwed by truncation. Everything has screwed us this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 day 8 looks really nice with a nice vort over tx/ok border and lp breaking out. nice block to our north. I'll let the d10 guys handle it from here. thanks. Ill take it from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 thanks. Ill take it from here I'm counting on you. Don't screw this one up and for god sakes don't post it on fb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The 12z Op GFS took a step towards the Euro Ensemble evolution of the system, and that is all I am taking from this. I agree with wxusa its a win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'm counting on you. Don't screw this one up and for god sakes don't post it on fb. You are too late. He already posted about the storm 19 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GEFS has a fish as well and the mean implies quite a bit of spread in the solutions. Still, can't take away from the fact that this is the best looking set up (if verified) we'll have had all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 At you age i am highly doubtful you get to see another year like that . in your mid/late 30's, you're no spring chickadee either so 09/10 winter will undoubtedly be your "once in a lifetime" winter, at least as long as you live in these miserable parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 in your mid/late 30's, you're no spring chickadee either so 09/10 winter will undoubtedly be your "once in a lifetime" winter, at least as long as you live in these miserable parts Hell...my newborn daughter probably won't see a winter like that one, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Hell...my newborn daughter probably won't see a winter like that one, either. well, I was thinking the same thing but didn't want the "youngsters" on the board to get bummed how's that girly-girl doing? a relative of mine just had a boy a few weeks ago and all he does is eat and grow; none of the newborn stuff fit him when he was born and now he's maxed out with the 3 month stuff in < 1 month! anyway, I hate newborn babies because they all have more hair than I do <kidding> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Do we get any precip Friday morning on the Euro when our temps are still cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Do we get any precip Friday morning on the Euro when our temps are still cold? a little but sfc temps and timing look pretty iffy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS pops a big Feb 29-30 storm, but it's mostly a fish. Gives us some snow before it heads OTS. Western s/w kicks it along just a little bit. I'd take this run as a win at this stage. Feb 29-30? Can't tell if joking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 well, I was thinking the same thing but didn't want the "youngsters" on the board to get bummed how's that girly-girl doing? a relative of mine just had a boy a few weeks ago and all he does is eat and grow; none of the newborn stuff fit him when he was born and now he's maxed out with the 3 month stuff in < 1 month! anyway, I hate newborn babies because they all have more hair than I do <kidding> She's great! She eats and grows like a weed, too, but she was so small when she came out that she looks like she's only a couple weeks old And she has more hair than most grown men do - she was born with a serious mop on her head! On-topic post: I'm not getting sucked into any of the long-range stuff. We've seen it come and go all winter, and despite there being STJ involvement, I won't bite outside of two days unless the enlightened do so first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I have had alot of crappy winters but ive also had 95-96,2002-2003,2009-10. 3 once in a life time winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 appears Euro gives Leesburg close to an inch of snow between Friday 12z and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On-topic post: I'm not getting sucked into any of the long-range stuff. We've seen it come and go all winter, and despite there being STJ involvement, I won't bite outside of two days unless the enlightened do so first... that's how i feel at this pt.. and i think how many feel. models have little to no skill past d7-10 when it comes to specifics yet we spend the majority of our wx board lives in that range these days. we need a good storm and then some headed into mar. that's probably all i'll say for now.. im going to try not to even talk about that period till it's closer ... waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 appears Euro gives Leesburg close to an inch of snow between Friday 12z and 18z how did this become another .1" qpf event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 appears Euro gives Leesburg close to an inch of snow between Friday 12z and 18z Then we need to cut that in half and then it will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 how did this become another .1" qpf event? That's our destiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 EURO is doing the March 4-6 2001 "wiggle" I call it, except it's doing it WAY too far west. We need the initial low to be farther east like GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 You can see how strong the "potential" storm could be with that type of phase @ 222 hrs on the EURO, if we can just get the initial confluence farther east it would be something. 984mbs over WV, and it's not done bombing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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