Yeoman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 phineas and leesburg are underrated but dangerous Common sense is very underrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 i almost killed myself after the march 2001 bust Maybe Wes has some connections with the developers at NCEP so we can see if the second time's the charm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 18z gfs shows 1-2 inches of pure snow Fri afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 18z gfs still has an ok vort near texarkana and ok block to the N @ d8. It's not going west at least if you believe it even exists. Ok Ji, you can take it from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wow truncation looks like a random map from the vault at 204. Worthless after 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 18z gfs shows 1-2 inches of pure snow Fri afternoon That's a tight little window for that to happen. There might be about 6 hours of moderate snow as modeled. There is also the warm layer at around 8000 feet. I don't know what effect that will have.And then the CAD erodes rather quickly after the initial burst of snow. Fingers crossed for the 1 to 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 This from NWS Blacksburg is confusing. Not sure what they are looking at for Friday. In one sentence they mention significant winter event but then say ice accumulations less than tenth of an inch probably hundreds of an inch. I don't see this being a big deal right now like I once did. The main feature to be concerned with during this period will be the passage of yet another challenging and likely significant winter weather event for Thursday night and Friday as the cold front nears our area. Warm moist air aloft will begin to build into the area Thursday night...however cold and dry high pressure east of the Appalachians will keep our surface temperatures below freezing through most of the night. Believe precipitation entering the area late Thursday evening will start off as snow...however as warmer air continues to build in above the surface...will see snow transition to sleet and freezing rain for much of the area shortly after midnight. At this point...looking for a tenth of an inch or less in ice accumulations...with highest accumulations found along portions of the Blue Ridge into the Greenbrier valley and the Alleghany Highlands. A few hundredths of an inch of icing is expected for much of the piedmonts region. Believe this icing event will significantly impact the Friday morning commute across the area...and latest forecast model guidance suggests that temperatures will not rise significantly above freezing until approaching noon...making for slow melting. Temperatures are expected to rise into the upper 30s for Friday afternoon highs. By Friday night...expect drying conditions as the cold front moves east of the area...with high pressure building in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 While we enjoy our .11 ....18z Gfs gives Boston 2-3 feet of snow this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 While we enjoy our .11 ....18z Gfs gives Boston 2-3 feet of snow this weekend I hate that place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 While we enjoy our .11 ....18z Gfs gives Boston 2-3 feet of snow this weekend Maybe it will fall into the ocean, so we do not have to be so miserable any longer watching them get blasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 They are supposed to get to get more snow then us. Comparing us to New England is just going to lead to pain. Now NYC having the run they are on is a little weird. NYC should get in on the southern edge of some of new England's storms but at the same time in a more normal year they should miss a few to the south or maybe get a storm that hugs the coast and they change over while we get snow. Those 2 latter types have gone extinct and now all we have are the New England storms. Feb 5-6, 2010 was pretty painful for NYC....but you are right they have been on a heater recently. Though Feb 8-9 this year was probably tough to swallow in how close they were to historic totals...they still got a nice solid event (11" I think?) but literally 20 miles away saw 2-3 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 my mother's family were from Stratford, CT as a child, we would go up for a week in the summer, but it was really no different than suburban Baltimore and Bridgeport, a few miles away, was like Sparrows Point, the east side of Balt. City I don;t have any bad memories, but then the last time I was there was the weekend Elvis Presley died so I'm sure things have changed! i lived in a place where a bunch of people i went to school with lived on roads named after their family etc. but most also didnt go to college and worked on the farm or at the bar the rest of their lives. weird social vibe all around in new england imo. nice people but odd. maybe it's because my dream was never to settle down and put my kids in good schools and stare at deer all day. i'd much rather live in this area though perhaps i've just become a city person. snow is a small part of life--as if you need a reminder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think we have all handled this historic snow drought very well all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Feb 5-6, 2010 was pretty painful for NYC....but you are right they have been on a heater recently. Though Feb 8-9 this year was probably tough to swallow in how close they were to historic totals...they still got a nice solid event (11" I think?) but literally 20 miles away saw 2-3 feet. Yea. I don't usually get into regional wars but I have lots of friends in the NYC area and they were so whiny about missing that one storm god forbid and then they got 10" and 20" the next 2 weeks and they still acted like it was only so so because they didn't get the 50" snowpack Maryland did and it wasnt fair. They have started to think of themselves like they should always do way better then Philly south and climo says that's not the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think we have all handled this historic snow drought very well all things considered. im guessing a lot of people just went numb eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Yea. I don't usually get into regional wars but I have lots of friends in the NYC area and they were so whiny about missing that one storm god forbid and then they got 10" and 20" the next 2 weeks and they still acted like it was only so so because they didn't get the 50" snowpack Maryland did and it wasnt fair. They have started to think of themselves like they should always do way better then Philly south and climo says that's not the case. Yeah their avg is like 3-4" higher than IAD and a good 6-7" less than your area...they've def been lucky recently. But pretty much everyone from Philly north has been lucky recently. DC/BWI had '09-'10 but missed out on '10-'11 and got shafted in '08-'09 while PHL/NYC did near or slightly above avg. We've had a lack of El Ninos recently which is probably the leading cause along with some bad luck in Ninas and neutrals for DC/BWI. We probably have a few '99-'00 and '98-'99 type winters coming to make up for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I don't mind at all that n of us get more snow on average. It's a no brainer. Forget inches and think about percentages. We're getting smoked by all directions of the compass for 2 years. That's a bitter pill. Find me the closest major location that is missing climo snow by a larger % than dca last 2 years. Florida doesn't count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The 20 inch storm they got the end of Feb. 2010 that missed us still irks me. I don't care that I had over 60 inches for the month up to that point. I wanted that storm. The Boxing Day storm goes without saying, but I'm still pissed about 12/30/2000. Those three storms make me much more bitter towards NY than I am towards Boston. Like PSU said Boston is supposed to get it NY is another story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The 20 inch storm they got the end of Feb. 2010 that missed us still irks me. I don't care that I had over 60 inches for the month up to that point. I wanted that storm. The Boxing Day storm goes without saying, but I'm still pissed about 12/30/2000. Those three storms make me much more bitter towards NY than I am towards Boston. Like PSU said Boston is supposed to get it NY is another story. That was a nasty storm to watch if you werent in the snow, no matter what direction you were in. I got over 2 inches of rain from that storm. Not often that NYC is getting a blizzard of 20" of snow in February while 1000 feet in interior SNE is 40F with 2"+ of rain. I have no grounds to complain with the obscene seasonal totals of the past decade or so overall, but that storm still makes me cringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I tell myself the odds of having in my book 2 snowless winters in a row are extremely low. 2.2" of snow in 2 years is ridiculous. With what looks like a pretty nice setup with a +PNA- -AO/-NAO coming up in the first week of March. Something will eventually pop right? Lol. We might be drawing closer everyday towards spring but winter is not over yet!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I tell myself the odds of having in my book 2 snowless winters in a row are extremely low. 2.2" of snow in 2 years is ridiculous. With what looks like a pretty nice setup with a +PNA- -AO/-NAO coming up in the first week of March. Something will eventually pop right? Lol. We might be drawing closer everyday towards spring but winter is not over yet!!! wow, I knew it was bad, but that bad? Is that at DCA? (The 2.2) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think we have all handled this historic snow drought very well all things considered. It's not like we had a choice. But you're right, most people have kept their sense of humor about it. It really has been fascinating watching all the different ways we get screwed. But sooner or later there will be a surprise. Maybe Friday? Can never say definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 So NAM trying to spruce something up at the end of the wrong. NICE cAD sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Looks like a bit of freezing rain possibly. 850's look warm, but I guess that is to be expected with that ignorant GL low sitting there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 glorious purples are still over the plains. we're taking one for the team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 wow, I knew it was bad, but that bad? Is that at DCA? (The 2.2) My house in Manassas, Va. I measure every event and this is what I have received in 2 years and lots of change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 So NAM trying to spruce something up at the end of the wrong. NICE cAD sig But it's not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 So NAM trying to spruce something up at the end of the wrong. NICE cAD sig I'll preface it with the obligatory "it's the NAM", but it keeps throwing a hair more moisture into an airmass that by its own projections doesn't get above freezing until at least Saturday. I really think if we can get some precip in on Friday morning we see some snow. There's a couple of SREFS that are pretty wet. I'd like to see that become reality just to see what might happen. I've thrown caution to the wind and am just going with whatever looks the best. As Ian said, I'm numb at this point. Snow disappointment bounces off me like bullets off Superman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Glad I arrived in time for Ji's historic meltdown. tonight's GFS run could be JI's last without handcuffs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 First time in years I actually read Ji's posts. And it was funny. I agree with WinterWX. We all know the cad will hold on a little longer than modeled. I think NW of the city sees some snow on Friday. Wont amount to anything though. As far as New England getting more snow. They are supposed to. And they get to freeze their nuts off in the spring while we are fishing and playing golf. Dont get me wrong. I love Boston. One of my favorite cities. But not a chance in hell I would live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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