WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 FWIW...Ukie has a GFS-like monster for PD3 and GGEM has a huge storm too, but an inland runner. Euro on the weak/north side of the guidance, but certainly a possible solution given about 1/3rd of the GEFS members had a similar solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro has a nice cutter after the PDwaste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro will come along. Most of the LR models like this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well, if the GFS can be right with one of these systems I sure hope it's this weekend's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 DT salivating over the UKMET lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 FWIW...Ukie has a GFS-like monster for PD3 and GGEM has a huge storm too, but an inland runner. Euro on the weak/north side of the guidance, but certainly a possible solution given about 1/3rd of the GEFS members had a similar solution. The GFS type solution more often than not doesn't pan out on these type of systems but with the UKMET firmly in the GFS corner, I think either solution is probably equally likely. Sometimes it pays to be gutless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Euro will come along. Most of the LR models like this one When you start talking like that it scares me, your track record sometimes is ,well, just is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 When you start talking like that it scares me, your track record sometimes is ,well, just is. Watch out Norman, when I bring the trolling hammer down on you, there will be no mercy. You got some nerve trolling me. You can't even nail down a storm 136 hours out. You sure you used to work for HPC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 When you start talking like that it scares me, your track record sometimes is ,well, just is. The tracker bus is probably the same place the titanic is right now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 When you start talking like that it scares me, your track record sometimes is ,well, just is. LOL Wes dishing it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 DT going ape**** over a model that tends to overdevelop east coast storms. The UK is pretty to look at tho. We all should be extrapolating the NAM around this time tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 LOL Wes dishing it out Welcome to the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 DT going ape**** over a model that tends to overdevelop east coast storms. The UK is pretty to look at tho. We all should be extrapolating the NAM around this time tomorrow! DT likes to get the FB people all frothy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 DT likes to get the FB people all frothy I don't understand it...especially this far out....especially with the UKMET. Then tomorrow (or tonight), he'll have to let them down hard. He's still waaaay better than Wes Junker though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 DT going ape**** over a model that tends to overdevelop east coast storms. The UK is pretty to look at tho. We all should be extrapolating the NAM around this time tomorrow! I am running the old NGM from my 10 year old desktop and extrapolating that to 300 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I am running the old NGM from my 10 year old desktop and extrapolating that to 300 hours. I miss the NGM. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I miss the NGM.Seriously. Went out nicely with 3/1/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I don't understand it...especially this far out....especially with the UKMET. Then tomorrow (or tonight), he'll have to let them down hard. He's still waaaay better than Wes Junker though. Is Wes that old weekend guy from Channel 2 in Baltimore. That guy was such a snow weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Is Wes that old weekend guy from Channel 2 in Baltimore. That guy was such a snow weenie. Norm lewis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Get the troff orientation a little further west were good. We could have used that several times this winter it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 DT going ape**** over a model that tends to overdevelop east coast storms. The UK is pretty to look at tho. We all should be extrapolating the NAM around this time tomorrow! "if" i was a meteorologist, i wouldn't focus on details this far out. i'd look at the overall setup. i think that's what separates the contenders and the pretenders when it comes to forecasting. the prize fighters are better at judging the overall pattern instead of weenie'ing over each model run. takes a lot of patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Watch out Norman, when I bring the trolling hammer down on you, there will be no mercy. You got some nerve trolling me. You can't even nail down a storm 136 hours out. You sure you used to work for HPC? DT going ape**** over a model that tends to overdevelop east coast storms. The UK is pretty to look at tho. We all should be extrapolating the NAM around this time tomorrow! and then different groups on FB use his page for weather on their page and say OMg go to the grocery store huge storm coming this weekend, in this case someone used his 12z gfs graphics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I miss the NGM. Seriously. when the NGM was a hit, then you knew it would snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I dont like any threat for our latitude that is a late developer that requires a timed phase...they usually trend north and develop too late or go OTS we need an overrunning component...1/25/00's are extremely rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 DT going ape**** over a model that tends to overdevelop east coast storms. The UK is pretty to look at tho. We all should be extrapolating the NAM around this time tomorrow! I think most of us understand its a long shot, even if all the models had a storm at this point it would still be at best a 50/50 proposition. BUT...we have had 2 years of just crap to look at, and we have 2 models with a nice hit, one is an inland runner and one is OTS...its a chance, maybe low percentage but a real chance at a significant event and I think its worth of some excitement as long as we undertand its still more likely to miss then hit. Sometimes, looking through the KU book at all the near misses where everything was lined up good, moster high in new england, -NAO, +PNA, miller a moster STJ system out of the gulf and somehow we still get screwed by either a primary up west of us or just too far east of us or develops too late to really get us hard. There are so many ways for these things to go wrong even when the setup is right. Its like a golf swing, 100 moving parts and if any one of them goes wrong, its all crap. I like the setup, its got a chance, and thats all we can ever really say at 100 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I miss the NGM. Seriously. Just for fun I wish there was a site that ran the old ETA, NGM, and AVN/MRF just so we can look at them and see what we would have been thinking if this was the 1990's just to track how much progress we have made. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I dont like any threat for our latitude that is a late developer that requires a timed phase...they usually trend north and develop too late or go OTS we need an overrunning component...1/25/00's are extremely rare True, because the general bias of the models tends to be to place h5 features too far south at 72 hours plus, and also to phase too quickly. Often times as we get closer the meso scale things that can make a clean phase tricky and messy start to show up and the models pick up on it, and thus we see the correction "north" with the impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I don't understand it...especially this far out....especially with the UKMET. Then tomorrow (or tonight), he'll have to let them down hard. He's still waaaay better than Wes Junker though. Lol, certainly in his own mind, and probably in the minds of most here until I actually get excited about a storm threat. Then you'll all love me again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I dont like any threat for our latitude that is a late developer that requires a timed phase...they usually trend north and develop too late or go OTS we need an overrunning component...1/25/00's are extremely rare I pretty much agree. They are rare birds. I'd be ready to almost punt it except that the UKMET also has it and it's not a bad model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We can do well with phased solutions but we need the northern branch to be digging in, slowing down, and for the phase to begin well south of our lattitude. These screaming west to east lakes vorts phasing off the mid atlantic coast are a lost cause for us usually. We need a northern system that is digging down the west side of a trough and phases into a STJ system. Those are our big dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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