mdsnowlover Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I love the long range talk on what might go right, but the 6z was a primer on one of the many things that can go wrong, aside from what mdsnowlover pointed out, that run brings significant cold into the area and crushes any possible threats in the March 1-6 range to roughly Cuba. Cold and dry for early March would be a swift kick to the jewels. ETA: Not at all saying it as depicted is "right" nor saying it is "wrong", just noting that run shows a solution that would explain how we could maintain the current streak of futility. excellent obserfations above my skill level. I just commented on the different track of the low from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I love the long range talk on what might go right, but the 6z was a primer on one of the many things that can go wrong, aside from what mdsnowlover pointed out, that run brings significant cold into the area and crushes any possible threats in the March 1-6 range to roughly Cuba. Cold and dry for early March would be a swift kick to the jewels. ETA: Not at all saying it as depicted is "right" nor saying it is "wrong", just noting that run shows a solution that would explain how we could maintain the current streak of futility. Yeah, I do too. But like you say it only matters if is were to somehow actually come to fruition. It is nice to get geeked up about potential but it still being out where models don't excel has to be taken into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 euro ensemble mean and surface still look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Nice CAD signature shows up on 6z gfs for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 You did not just post about the "Storm that Must Not Be Named"... That was a monster storm it just cut off too far north for us. That is always a risk. Look at the ku book close misses. Even with a great setup things can go wrong. Ill take my chances though. This time we just need the h5 to cut off to our south. Guidance right now says it should be further south then the 2001 storm but of course the models thought the same then too. We have a real shot at a significant storm that's all we can take from the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I think Randy knew I would say this, but the Day 9-10 pattern on the ensembles looks AMAZING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I think Randy knew I would say this, but the Day 9-10 pattern on the ensembles looks AMAZING. maybe, but I think the focus should be on what can go wrong because this year has always found the way for it to go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 maybe, but I think the focus should be on what can go wrong because this year has always found the way for it to go wrong Yeah, more likely Ian gets to satisfy his severe jollies like the Op Euro shows than we snow weenies get a 4th quarter bone thrown to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z GFS Day +11 analogs. Familiar dates showing up: Feb 13, 2010 (3-4 days after the 2nd blizzard), Feb 27, 2010 (huge storm for NY/SNE that just missed us), March 3, 2001 (may it's name live in infamy). Big caveat here...Miller B's!!! So, big storm chances and big bust chances. Yay for SNE though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Yeah, more likely Ian gets to satisfy his severe jollies like the Op Euro shows than we snow weenies get a 4th quarter bone thrown to us. I figure maybe we get a storm as the pattern breaks down. Maybe march 8-10? Since it is unlikely we will have a 3/7/07 or 3/9/99 air mass it would probably be mix or rain for the costal plain down here and snow north and west. That is my hope. So maybe I get a chance to chase above 1000' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z GFS Day +11 analogs. Familiar dates showing up: Feb 13, 2010 (3-4 days after the 2nd blizzard), Feb 27, 2010 (huge storm for NY/SNE that just missed us), March 3, 2001 (may it's name live in infamy). Big caveat here...Miller B's!!! So, big storm chances and big bust chances. Yay for SNE though! well if those dates don't convince everyone we will be close again but no cigar, I don't know what will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z Superensemble mean analogs were similar, but reordered a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I figure maybe we get a storm as the pattern breaks down. Maybe march 8-10? Since it is unlikely we will have a 3/7/07 or 3/9/99 air mass it would probably be mix or rain for the costal plain down here and snow north and west. That is my hope. So maybe I get a chance to chase above 1000' I for one hope you get a good snow without chasing Matt. You've worked hard, and had a very positive outlook in the face of one kick to the nads after another. I personally have less than zero faith in any modeled pattern, storm, anything at long range, but as always I remain hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Stepped away from this board for 4 days, come back and we're still talking about the D+10 pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Euro ensemble 240 looks great, I know last time an ensemble looked great the whole thing crapped out a day later...so lets see if this signal follows through on ensuing runs but we couldnt ask for a better signal this far out for a big storm. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens500mbHGHTNA216.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 sorry about the huge image, my computerat work is acting weird (POS) and now it won't even let me delete the image. Mods if you can please remove it since the link is right there. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Image looks fine to me, not huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z GFS Day +11 analogs. Familiar dates showing up: Feb 13, 2010 (3-4 days after the 2nd blizzard), Feb 27, 2010 (huge storm for NY/SNE that just missed us), March 3, 2001 (may it's name live in infamy). Big caveat here...Miller B's!!! So, big storm chances and big bust chances. TYay for SNE though! The good news is the Euro ensembles suggest a very different evolution. They both have a big storm signal but the Euro ensemble look from last night to me looks like a much better setup for our area. More miller A out of the southeast or at the very least a Miller b that develops significantly further south. Euro is slower with the evolution and swings the energy further south under the block. The GFS seems to be faster with the energy and never allows good spacing behind the cutter, and thus develops a miller b off New England. I wish we could do the analogs from the Euro day 10 ensemble. I am willing to bet we would get some more favorable outcomes from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Considering we've wasted every single marginal or even ok pattern without breaking a lame 2" streak, I just can't bring myself to do the ghost chase. I agree that it looks ok for now but D10+ is as reliable as taking off on time at LaGuardia. Maybe we squeeze some mercy flakes from one of the cutters/redevelopers. I'll stick with those and let everybody else have fun with d10 for a while. Mixing it up a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 This entire thread could easily be transported to Dec 1st, or Jan 1st, or Feb 1st and fit right in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Mid Atlantic Cycle of Life 240 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. Psu will say huge potential is there, and this one is REALLY it this time 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart Phase 1 initiated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 This entire thread could easily be transported to Dec 1st, or Jan 1st, or Feb 1st and fit right in. the only thing left is a cold spring to to neatly "salt the wound" of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'm out Randy. My weenie dazzling analysis with fruitless finishes is done for the year in the long lr. Viable threat inside of 120 and I'm going to post the crap out of the thread. Before that I'm just doin hit and runs for now. I'll bust a flashlight out from time to time but the laser is in it's box in the attic unless we accidentally get a viable threat inside of 5 days. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 the only thing left is a cold spring to to neatly "salt the wound" of this winter CoastalWx said Euro weeklies are AOB normal for March in the general forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Like Clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 CoastalWx said Euro weeklies are AOB normal for March in the general forum. I would say "good news", but they pretty much sucked this winter whenever they showed something good for us I'll figure on cold and damp and deal with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy_Valley Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Mid Atlantic Cycle of Life 240 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. Psu will say huge potential is there, and this one is REALLY it this time 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart Phase 1 initiated This is the funniest, right on the spot post for this winter ever! So much so that I finally made my first post in 2 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'm good with AOB for March and for the entire Spring for that matter as long as we don't have temps in the 80s before May and temps in the 90s before mid-June. Wishful thinking, yes, but I'm tired of the relentless heat from recent summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'm good with AOB for March and for the entire Spring for that matter as long as we don't have temps in the 80s before May and temps in the 90s before mid-June. Wishful thinking, yes, but I'm tired of the relentless heat from recent summers. the period from 2/28/09-2/10/10 was undoubtedly the best in my life a decent snow storm to end a string of lousy winters, a cool/comfortable summer (relatively speaking), ending with an historic winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 the period from 2/28/09-2/10/10 was undoubtedly the best in my life a decent snow storm to end a string of lousy winters, a cool/comfortable summer (relatively speaking), ending with an historic winter At you age i am highly doubtful you get to see another year like that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.