MDstorm Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The PAC getting out of the sh**ter is real I think beyond 2/28...the big question with any storm (aside from the obvious detail of the track) will be how far south cold air is available. The NAO blocking should be stout as well. Thanks Will for your input. It looks like precip will not be a problem down here, but temps will be the real issue. It is a shame (esp with the upcoming negative NAO)that the real cold air is on the other side of the pole. You seem to be in the cross hairs of a potentially very snowy pattern over the next 2-4 weeks.....really taking advantage of both your longitude and latitude. Throw a little this way if you can. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 SEEFS are getting precip in here by dawn Friday with 850"s and surface below freezing. Ok, start the ridicule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 SEEFS are getting precip in here by dawn Friday with 850"s and surface below freezing. Ok, start the ridicule. Well, after all of the drying out the models are getting wetter for Friday...so who knows...maybe some sort of trick is waiting. It is only Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Thanks Will for your input. It looks like precip will not be a problem down here, but temps will be the real issue. It is a shame (esp with the upcoming negative NAO)that the real cold air is on the other side of the pole. You seem to be in the cross hairs of a potentially very snowy pattern over the next 2-4 weeks.....really taking advantage of both your longitude and latitude. Throw a little this way if you can. MDstorm Yes I agree. Should be fairly wet over the next 2-3 weeks. Southern stream very active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The 240hr storm (the wave on the EURO OP) is also showing up on the GFS, GEFS, EURO ens....Something to track, a lot of the individual GFS members show a big cold storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 not sure about the ~2/28 threat...I assume it will cut or fizzle out, but it could be real if the PNA spikes quick enough....I'd say for my backyard between now and 3/10, there is about an 80% I will get 0-2" and 20" >2" I agree with will and PSU, the pattern starts looking really interesting from around 28th on with the torugh getting in a good place in the pacific, ridging along the west coast and high heights across canada and greenland. I think you are too low with your 2" probability. It's a pretty good pattern. Too bad it waiting until March to show up. When the ridging gets back to into the west, we probably will also have some modestly cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The pattern starts looking really interesting from around 28th on with the torugh getting in a good place in the pacific, ridging along the west coast and high heights across canada and greenland. I think you are too low with your 2" probability. It's a pretty good pattern. Too bad it waiting until March to show up. When the ridging gets back to into the west, we probably will also have some modestly cold air to work with. Wes likes the pattern <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The PAC getting out of the sh**ter is real I think beyond 2/28...the big question with any storm (aside from the obvious detail of the track) will be how far south cold air is available. The NAO blocking should be stout as well. After giving it some further thought, perhaps the deepest cold beong on the other side of the pole may not be that bad. The amount of cold is always a concern for us down here but if the NAO goes severly negative and stays there for an extended period time there should still be enough cold left to give us a decent chance whereas if the deepest cold was on our side of the pole with such a strong block and good Pacific all the cold would be forced under the block potentially suppressing the storm track and overwhelming the pattern with cold leaving us high and dry. I'll take my chances withe a negative NAO and good Pacific and let the chips fall where they may. I hope this is a distinct possibilty rather than me just wishcasting in desperate times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I want snow on my Easter eggs... but with our luck it will probably just Passover Good one!!! I think we all involuntarily gave up snow for Lent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I agree with will and PSU, the pattern starts looking really interesting from around 28th on with the torugh getting in a good place in the pacific, ridging along the west coast and high heights across canada and greenland. I think you are too low with your 2" probability. It's a pretty good pattern. Too bad it waiting until March to show up. When the ridging gets back to into the west, we probably will also have some modestly cold air to work with. I hope you're right...I think me and you really lose realistic chances after 3/10....I haven't gotten a 2" storm after March 9th since 1993 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Well that is basically the same position the Ravens were in at Denver. I guess its to much to ask for to have 2 miracles within 2 months. I too agree with the window in early March but the amount of available cold is worrisome .Its funny you referenced the 58 storm because I was just thinking about that the other day. I would have loved to experience that storm. Can you imagine almost 30 inches of heavy wet snow in March in northern MD. I read that some areas in southern PA got 4ft. The same rates we had here the other night for 1 hour lasted for hours on end. Westminster did record 30" some reports from our area were close to 40. 50" in southeast pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I hope you're right...I think me and you really lose realistic chances after 3/10....I haven't gotten a 2" storm after March 9th since 1993 This pattern looks really good but you are right realistically it's coming at the tail end of when it has any chance of mattering for dc. Luckily it looks like you have a solid 10 days and several waves that could get that one fluke to break our streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 This pattern looks really good but you are right realistically it's coming at the tail end of when it has any chance of mattering for dc. Luckily it looks like you have a solid 10 days and several waves that could get that one fluke to break our streak. March 1-3 looks ripe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Westminster did record 30" some reports from our area were close to 40. 50" in southeast pa. It is too bad IAD only goes back to 1962....I think there is a good chance that 1957-58 and 1960-61 may have matched or topped IAD's 62" in 95-96....very close I think....at least upper 50s both those winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Looks like lots of rain on the GFS through Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 WOW. Ji & others vets (ji especially, I'll never forget you & Noreaster posting model updates leading up to that storm)...I CANT be the only one who noticed this, can I?! ...... Tonight's 00z GFS @ 204-264 hours looks so similar to March 4-6 2001 it's freaking scary. As Ji would say as well the storm may be 10 days out, but the setup starts around Day 7;) March 4-6 2001 500mb: Tonight's 00z GFS; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 march 1-5 huge on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 00z GFS still likes Feb 28-Feb 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 march 1-5 huge on gfs haha! I beat you by one post. I know that wouldn't have slipped by you. Holy crap, 12 years later, could it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 haha! I beat you by one post. I know that wouldn't have slipped by you. Holy crap, 12 years later, could it be? You did not just post about the "Storm that Must Not Be Named"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I give this one to Ji. He posted about this in the real world first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 You did not just post about the "Storm that Must Not Be Named"... The pattern for the storm on the GFS starts at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 haha! I beat you by one post. I know that wouldn't have slipped by you. Holy crap, 12 years later, could it be? 12 years later? I got zero march 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I give this one to Ji. He posted about this in the real world first. I call him mini JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 12 years later? I got zero march 2001 yea me neither, 12 years later to make the fantasy a reality. You got to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Some winters get bailed out very late 1977,78,79,83,87,93,94,96,2000,03,06,10 were all good or better so once every 3/4 years. 2013-14 will be Rockin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 If I may say frankly, lolz for looking at the analogs for a 228 hr GFS. Grasping for every straw we can... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 If I may say frankly, lolz for looking at the analogs for a 228 hr GFS. Grasping for every straw we can... To be fair a lot of mets are liking the long range ENSEMBLES and how the pattern offers possibly the best potential of the year. Now, I understand it's far out, but its realistically the closest chance for snow because all the storms before the 28th probably won't take the right track/have enough cold air. I simply was astounded how strikingly similar the 500mb on the 00z GFS was to March 4-6 2001. I mean it was practically identical, almost as close as can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 totally different solution on 6z. Low cuts to lakes and another low forms in the south and inland runner. Too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I love the long range talk on what might go right, but the 6z was a primer on one of the many things that can go wrong, aside from what mdsnowlover pointed out, that run brings significant cold into the area and crushes any possible threats in the March 1-6 range to roughly Cuba. Cold and dry for early March would be a swift kick to the jewels. ETA: Not at all saying it as depicted is "right" nor saying it is "wrong", just noting that run shows a solution that would explain how we could maintain the current streak of futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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