mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 3:46 PM, ravensrule said: At you age i am highly doubtful you get to see another year like that . in your mid/late 30's, you're no spring chickadee either so 09/10 winter will undoubtedly be your "once in a lifetime" winter, at least as long as you live in these miserable parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 5:52 PM, mitchnick said: in your mid/late 30's, you're no spring chickadee either so 09/10 winter will undoubtedly be your "once in a lifetime" winter, at least as long as you live in these miserable parts Hell...my newborn daughter probably won't see a winter like that one, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 5:53 PM, mattie g said: Hell...my newborn daughter probably won't see a winter like that one, either. well, I was thinking the same thing but didn't want the "youngsters" on the board to get bummed how's that girly-girl doing? a relative of mine just had a boy a few weeks ago and all he does is eat and grow; none of the newborn stuff fit him when he was born and now he's maxed out with the 3 month stuff in < 1 month! anyway, I hate newborn babies because they all have more hair than I do <kidding> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Do we get any precip Friday morning on the Euro when our temps are still cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 6:15 PM, WxUSAF said: Do we get any precip Friday morning on the Euro when our temps are still cold? a little but sfc temps and timing look pretty iffy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 4:39 PM, WxUSAF said: GFS pops a big Feb 29-30 storm, but it's mostly a fish. Gives us some snow before it heads OTS. Western s/w kicks it along just a little bit. I'd take this run as a win at this stage. Feb 29-30? Can't tell if joking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 5:59 PM, mitchnick said: well, I was thinking the same thing but didn't want the "youngsters" on the board to get bummed how's that girly-girl doing? a relative of mine just had a boy a few weeks ago and all he does is eat and grow; none of the newborn stuff fit him when he was born and now he's maxed out with the 3 month stuff in < 1 month! anyway, I hate newborn babies because they all have more hair than I do <kidding> She's great! She eats and grows like a weed, too, but she was so small when she came out that she looks like she's only a couple weeks old And she has more hair than most grown men do - she was born with a serious mop on her head! On-topic post: I'm not getting sucked into any of the long-range stuff. We've seen it come and go all winter, and despite there being STJ involvement, I won't bite outside of two days unless the enlightened do so first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I have had alot of crappy winters but ive also had 95-96,2002-2003,2009-10. 3 once in a life time winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 appears Euro gives Leesburg close to an inch of snow between Friday 12z and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 6:21 PM, mattie g said: On-topic post: I'm not getting sucked into any of the long-range stuff. We've seen it come and go all winter, and despite there being STJ involvement, I won't bite outside of two days unless the enlightened do so first... that's how i feel at this pt.. and i think how many feel. models have little to no skill past d7-10 when it comes to specifics yet we spend the majority of our wx board lives in that range these days. we need a good storm and then some headed into mar. that's probably all i'll say for now.. im going to try not to even talk about that period till it's closer ... waste of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 6:23 PM, Ji said: appears Euro gives Leesburg close to an inch of snow between Friday 12z and 18z how did this become another .1" qpf event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 6:23 PM, Ji said: appears Euro gives Leesburg close to an inch of snow between Friday 12z and 18z Then we need to cut that in half and then it will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 6:26 PM, Ian said: how did this become another .1" qpf event? That's our destiny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 EURO is doing the March 4-6 2001 "wiggle" I call it, except it's doing it WAY too far west. We need the initial low to be farther east like GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 You can see how strong the "potential" storm could be with that type of phase @ 222 hrs on the EURO, if we can just get the initial confluence farther east it would be something. 984mbs over WV, and it's not done bombing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 6:49 PM, Highzenberg said: EURO is doing the March 4-6 2001 "wiggle" I call it, except it's doing it WAY too far west. We need the initial low to be farther east like GFS. what are you looking at. At 168...the ULL that would create the storm is still near Cali Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Huge rain event. If only it was a few weeks later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 maybe Feb 28 is too early....maybe its the other ULLin Calif lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 its musically impossible for the low to do this with the 570 heights near Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 6:57 PM, Ji said: its musically impossible for the low to do this with the 570 heights near Greenland gotta kill that lakes low somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 All that matters are the ensembles at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 6:58 PM, Ian said: gotta kill that lakes low somehow. That's been the problem and probably will be the problem with the feb 28 low. Still acting like a nina on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wrap around on day 10??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 7:03 PM, weathervswife said: Wrap around on day 10??? more like wrap it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 take a good hard look at d8-10 because it's the last time you will see this solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 7:25 PM, Bob Chill said: take a good hard look at d8-10 because it's the last time you will see this solution Oh, it'll probably work out just fine. I don't have precip maps, but I imagine that would be about 3 inches of rain with temps in the upper 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 NWS usually likes to go with a GFS/Euro compromise on storm track. I would take that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 BOth options are believable, the models are not going to get the details that will determine the exact storm track right at this range. But the signal for a storm is there. Of course given the seasonal trend its best to go in expected our area to get screwed somehow, but at least its one last thing to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 8:04 PM, psuhoffman said: BOth options are believable, the models are not going to get the details that will determine the exact storm track right at this range. But the signal for a storm is there. Of course given the seasonal trend its best to go in expected our area to get screwed somehow, but at least its one last thing to track. euro also has a powerful low at 240 in the desert S/w. Maybe that is our storm in the 28th storm is just an appetizer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 we have till Mar 10 to get a storm. Otherwise, euro runs start at 1:45 am instead of 12:45am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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