EastCoast NPZ Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 hm says to "keep your eyes open" on the east coast with a neg nao and positive pna for approximately the next two weeks. Said the last time the nao went as negative as it supposedly may was with Sandy. And just like with Sandy, all that we'll see is another cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 GFS showing hints of something closed/cutoff to our south in this time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 lakes low does start to push east by 240 with nice ull near tx ph. my guess is it will cut or shear out. man.. lots of qpf for the plains in this pattern on models. please please please! : That lines up with projected MJO. Could be a cool and dreary spring coming. Not good after another disastrous winter for you city folk. Edit: Unless you like cold and dreary springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That lines up with projected MJO. Could be a cool and dreary spring coming. Not good after another disastrous winter for you city folk. Edit: Unless you like cold and dreary springs. I'll take an EC trough in Mar/April if it means a ridge in May/June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Feb 31 can work Ian you know there are only 30 days in Feb....well except leap years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 that wave on the 240hr EURO looks like it would have a chance...dont kill me for saying that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 SNE going to get blasted again , this is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 This is a pretty good setup/pattern here on the 12z EURO 240hr ENSEMBLE MEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 IN case you are wondering what happens after the Euro 240....the EURO Control shows a superstorm.....probably strongest storm since 1993. 850's below zero for entire event despite lack of High If this was only under 240 hours away, I might believe it. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 If this was only under 240 hours away, I might believe it. MDstorm it actually develops at hour 220:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 it actually develops at hour 220:) You got me on that one. Plus JB did say an east coast superstorm was likely before March 5. It better be more super than the March 2001 storm. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 If this was only under 240 hours away, I might believe it. MDstorm I'm all in. Already mortgaged the kids college fund. What's a few more chips to throw away. Repeat 93 for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Not really lack of high. High is in tx, with isobars coming out of Canada toward us Sent from my ADR6425LVW using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 the pattern gets good around 2/28....the PAC sucks before then.....that is probably our next window, though we probably wont take advantage given the rut we are in....it could be the 2/27-3/1 storm, but more likely a storm after that..hopefully we see something develop in the 3/1-3/8 range so even the coastal plain can get accumulating snow...not sure what happens after that, but it probably doesnt matter for me.....at least it looks like we will have a window that 1st week of march....so we shouldnt cancel yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 lol Edit: at the comments prior to Matt's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 lol Edit: at the comments prior to Matt's it is a reach, but that is obviously the last gasp for you and me unless some totally weird bizarre thing happens like some superstorm... we haven't taken advantage of any opportunity yet, so we are probably screwed, but at least we can say we might have a slim chance....in a lot of past years it was pretty easy to cancel by now when all the modeling screamed 60s/70s and no blocking....this year there is reason to pay attention even though the rug will get pulled out again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 it is a reach, but that is obviously the last gasp for you and me unless some totally weird bizarre thing happens like some superstorm... we haven't taken advantage of any opportunity yet, so we are probably screwed, but at least we can say we might have a slim chance....in a lot of past years it was pretty easy to cancel by now when all the modeling screamed 60s/70s and no blocking....this year there is reason to pay attention even though the rug will get pulled out again... Yeah I hear ya. I think there is probably some potential there as well just that looking at D10 seems like all we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yeah I hear ya. I think there is probably some potential there as well just that looking at D10 seems like all we do. we have no choice anymore...there is about 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter, we are down 24-3 and need a TD and then an onside kick and another TD just to cover the spread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The MJO inducing a bit of SE ridge really hurt the Feb 20-27 period for the southeast and M.A. The Atlantic is progged to be pretty good...esp the the unique Hudson Bay block. If we could have had a bit of a western ridge with that and the active southern stream, that's how you get those PDII type setups...obviously an extreme example, but you get the idea. It supplies the cold more efficiently into the southeast and keeps the primary storm track underneath the OH valley. The western ridge progged for early March is pretty impressive as modeled on the Ec ensembles. Obviously that is pretty far out, so we'll have to wait and see how it looks as we get closer, but that is what you want to see for trying to get a late season event in the M.A. I wish we had one last arctic reinforcement before that, but all the deep cold is on the wrong side of the pole. But at least there would be a shot in that pattern. So I'd agree with zwyts that the Mar 1-7 period is prob the best to look at...doesn't mean something can't happen earlier, but the longwave pattern favors a bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 we have no choice anymore...there is about 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter, we are down 24-3 and need a TD and then an onside kick and another TD just to cover the spread The fact is we need a Joe Flacco/Jacoby Jones against the Broncos...except its vs. Mother Nature instead. The winter has sucked, better than last year, but still awful. We need to realize that unless its a Nino winter, we all better buy a winter vacation house in the northeast ASAP to get our snow fix. I know personally I need it. Too bad the wife gives a rats a$$ about snow. I just had the divorce papers drawn up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 At the.risk of being a weenie here I think the early march window for a major east coast storm is real. It's not a model blip its supported by the way this type of pattern is likely to evolve. We have blocking and if we do get a Pna ridge then the most likely way that breaks down in march is a big storm. I'm buying it but that doesn't mean we get snow. As will pointed out there won't be much cold so we would need some love from the h5 low most likely a la 1958. It's all we have left so might as well watch and see. It's 4th down 3 seconds left at our own 20 down by 7. Go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'll take a loss and field goal. The more favorable lw pattern showed up for weeks. It's here now. For better or for worse. Let's do this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 At the.risk of being a weenie here I think the early march window for a major east coast storm is real. It's not a model blip its supported by the way this type of pattern is likely to evolve. We have blocking and if we do get a Pna ridge then the most likely way that breaks down in march is a big storm. I'm buying it but that doesn't mean we get snow. As will pointed out there won't be much cold so we would need some love from the h5 low most likely a la 1958. It's all we have left so might as well watch and see. It's 4th down 3 seconds left at our own 20 down by 7. Go big or go home. Well that is basically the same position the Ravens were in at Denver. I guess its to much to ask for to have 2 miracles within 2 months. I too agree with the window in early March but the amount of available cold is worrisome .Its funny you referenced the 58 storm because I was just thinking about that the other day. I would have loved to experience that storm. Can you imagine almost 30 inches of heavy wet snow in March in northern MD. I read that some areas in southern PA got 4ft. The same rates we had here the other night for 1 hour lasted for hours on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Well that is basically the same position the Ravens were in at Denver. I guess its to much to ask for to have 2 miracles within 2 months. I too agree with the window in early March but the amount of available cold is worrisome .Its funny you referenced the 58 storm because I was just thinking about that the other day. I would have loved to experience that storm. Can you imagine almost 30 inches of heavy wet snow in March in northern MD. I read that some areas in southern PA got 4ft. The same rates we had here the other night for 1 hour lasted for hours on end. I think DCA got 5", but NW DC probably got 15-20" National Arboretum got 19"...200-300' elevation made a huge difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Morgantown PA got 50" of snow from the March 58 Blizzard....I enjoy spring storms because they can be violent and I absolutely adore closed ULLs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 not sure about the ~2/28 threat...I assume it will cut or fizzle out, but it could be real if the PNA spikes quick enough....I'd say for my backyard between now and 3/10, there is about an 80% I will get 0-2" and 20" >2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Morgantown PA got 50" of snow from the March 58 Blizzard....I enjoy spring storms because they can be violent and I absolutely adore closed ULLs Yes, That's the name of the town I couldn't remeber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 not sure about the ~2/28 threat...I assume it will cut or fizzle out, but it could be real if the PNA spikes quick enough....I'd say for my backyard between now and 3/10, there is about an 80% I will get 0-2" and 20" >2" The PAC getting out of the sh**ter is real I think beyond 2/28...the big question with any storm (aside from the obvious detail of the track) will be how far south cold air is available. The NAO blocking should be stout as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I want snow on my Easter eggs... but with our luck it will probably just Passover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I want snow on my Easter eggs... but with our luck it will probably just Passover Well Passover is very early this year so maybe we have a shot of seeing some snow on macaroons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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