psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 sorry about the huge image, my computerat work is acting weird (POS) and now it won't even let me delete the image. Mods if you can please remove it since the link is right there. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Image looks fine to me, not huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z GFS Day +11 analogs. Familiar dates showing up: Feb 13, 2010 (3-4 days after the 2nd blizzard), Feb 27, 2010 (huge storm for NY/SNE that just missed us), March 3, 2001 (may it's name live in infamy). Big caveat here...Miller B's!!! So, big storm chances and big bust chances. TYay for SNE though! The good news is the Euro ensembles suggest a very different evolution. They both have a big storm signal but the Euro ensemble look from last night to me looks like a much better setup for our area. More miller A out of the southeast or at the very least a Miller b that develops significantly further south. Euro is slower with the evolution and swings the energy further south under the block. The GFS seems to be faster with the energy and never allows good spacing behind the cutter, and thus develops a miller b off New England. I wish we could do the analogs from the Euro day 10 ensemble. I am willing to bet we would get some more favorable outcomes from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Considering we've wasted every single marginal or even ok pattern without breaking a lame 2" streak, I just can't bring myself to do the ghost chase. I agree that it looks ok for now but D10+ is as reliable as taking off on time at LaGuardia. Maybe we squeeze some mercy flakes from one of the cutters/redevelopers. I'll stick with those and let everybody else have fun with d10 for a while. Mixing it up a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 This entire thread could easily be transported to Dec 1st, or Jan 1st, or Feb 1st and fit right in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Mid Atlantic Cycle of Life 240 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. Psu will say huge potential is there, and this one is REALLY it this time 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart Phase 1 initiated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 This entire thread could easily be transported to Dec 1st, or Jan 1st, or Feb 1st and fit right in. the only thing left is a cold spring to to neatly "salt the wound" of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'm out Randy. My weenie dazzling analysis with fruitless finishes is done for the year in the long lr. Viable threat inside of 120 and I'm going to post the crap out of the thread. Before that I'm just doin hit and runs for now. I'll bust a flashlight out from time to time but the laser is in it's box in the attic unless we accidentally get a viable threat inside of 5 days. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 the only thing left is a cold spring to to neatly "salt the wound" of this winter CoastalWx said Euro weeklies are AOB normal for March in the general forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Like Clockwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 CoastalWx said Euro weeklies are AOB normal for March in the general forum. I would say "good news", but they pretty much sucked this winter whenever they showed something good for us I'll figure on cold and damp and deal with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Happy_Valley Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Mid Atlantic Cycle of Life 240 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. Psu will say huge potential is there, and this one is REALLY it this time 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart Phase 1 initiated This is the funniest, right on the spot post for this winter ever! So much so that I finally made my first post in 2 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'm good with AOB for March and for the entire Spring for that matter as long as we don't have temps in the 80s before May and temps in the 90s before mid-June. Wishful thinking, yes, but I'm tired of the relentless heat from recent summers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'm good with AOB for March and for the entire Spring for that matter as long as we don't have temps in the 80s before May and temps in the 90s before mid-June. Wishful thinking, yes, but I'm tired of the relentless heat from recent summers. the period from 2/28/09-2/10/10 was undoubtedly the best in my life a decent snow storm to end a string of lousy winters, a cool/comfortable summer (relatively speaking), ending with an historic winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 the period from 2/28/09-2/10/10 was undoubtedly the best in my life a decent snow storm to end a string of lousy winters, a cool/comfortable summer (relatively speaking), ending with an historic winter At you age i am highly doubtful you get to see another year like that . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Phase 1 initiated Tracker...that was funny as hell when you first posted it, but now it's just scary. Except for Chill's reluctance to follow LR threats now, that is unbelieveably and frighteningly spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Is something trying to develop in the gulf this Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 48 hours: People begin posting the NAM and seeing more CAD than modeled Everyone rhat hasnt punted expects the next SREFs to be colder and wetter 12 hours: RAP shows it colder and wetter, desperate weenies unpunt and begin posing the HRRR and RAP run by run. People post obs 1° below modeled Posts about rates and sun angle appear Someone posts about Henry Margusity and jokes about his hype map Mid Atlantic Cycle of Life 240 168 hours out Wxusaf says this looks like the best set up in a century Wes, one of the most respected and listened to mets who will be modest and says he has no skill, will say the ensemble analogs look great! Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Ji will say screw PD3, THIS one is it. Randy will put his chips all in Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go. Zwyts will say all he wants is a car topper and not to expect much more. Psu will say huge potential is there, and this one is REALLY it this time 120 hours out Euro doesn't show sh*t, psu will say don't pay attention to the models, the signal is so strong that they will show it Ji will give up Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Wes will say it has a chance, but maybe not Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go Dave will post the UKMET and call condition Alpo 84 hours out No model will show it, but it'll be close 85% of the subforum will punt Ji will get back in and says JMA shows a hit Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. ravensrule will post about balls Wes will disown the threat entirely and troll Randy Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 60 hours out GGEM, NOGAPS and 18z DGEX will show the storm. Euro/GFS/UKMET will show a cold front with marginal temps. Phineas Theorem creeps in. Wxusaf will show the GEFS and give false hope Psu will disown the storm Wes will go dark Ian will post a right on target sarcastic remark and be ridiculed for it. Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 12 hours out Ian will be right Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go 0 dark thirty Bob Chill will focus like a laser and not let this one go NO storm, GFS will show a killer pattern at 240 hours.....restart Phase 1 initiated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Is something trying to develop in the gulf this Sunday? Won't matter. Constant barrage of lp in the lakes/n plains area takes us out of the game. Even if it did it would be rain. Unti the train of cutters either dissappears or one cuts further east (not likely because of blocking) we don't have much to talk about. I heard d10+ is looking ripe though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Won't matter. Constant barrage of lp in the lakes/n plains area takes us out of the game. Even if it did it would be rain. Unti the train of cutters either dissappears or one cuts further east (not likely because of blocking) we don't have much to talk about. I heard d10+ is looking ripe though. Yup. Constant g/l lows. It's comical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 day 8 looks really nice with a nice vort over tx/ok border and lp breaking out. nice block to our north. I'll let the d10 guys handle it from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS pops a big Feb 29-30 storm, but it's mostly a fish. Gives us some snow before it heads OTS. Western s/w kicks it along just a little bit. I'd take this run as a win at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS day 8/9 threat # (insert large number here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS brings a new western kicker into the Day 8-9 storm which doesnt allow for the crazy lob phase ala March 4-6 2001 the 00z GFS was showing. Still shows a decent storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GFS pops a big Feb 29-30 storm, but it's mostly a fish. Gives us some snow before it heads OTS. Western s/w kicks it along just a little bit. I'd take this run as a win at this stage. screwed by truncation. Everything has screwed us this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 day 8 looks really nice with a nice vort over tx/ok border and lp breaking out. nice block to our north. I'll let the d10 guys handle it from here. thanks. Ill take it from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 thanks. Ill take it from here I'm counting on you. Don't screw this one up and for god sakes don't post it on fb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The 12z Op GFS took a step towards the Euro Ensemble evolution of the system, and that is all I am taking from this. I agree with wxusa its a win in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'm counting on you. Don't screw this one up and for god sakes don't post it on fb. You are too late. He already posted about the storm 19 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GEFS has a fish as well and the mean implies quite a bit of spread in the solutions. Still, can't take away from the fact that this is the best looking set up (if verified) we'll have had all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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