vern Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Looks like lots of rain on the GFS through Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 WOW. Ji & others vets (ji especially, I'll never forget you & Noreaster posting model updates leading up to that storm)...I CANT be the only one who noticed this, can I?! ...... Tonight's 00z GFS @ 204-264 hours looks so similar to March 4-6 2001 it's freaking scary. As Ji would say as well the storm may be 10 days out, but the setup starts around Day 7;) March 4-6 2001 500mb: Tonight's 00z GFS; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 march 1-5 huge on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 00z GFS still likes Feb 28-Feb 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 march 1-5 huge on gfs haha! I beat you by one post. I know that wouldn't have slipped by you. Holy crap, 12 years later, could it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 haha! I beat you by one post. I know that wouldn't have slipped by you. Holy crap, 12 years later, could it be? You did not just post about the "Storm that Must Not Be Named"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I give this one to Ji. He posted about this in the real world first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 You did not just post about the "Storm that Must Not Be Named"... The pattern for the storm on the GFS starts at 168 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 haha! I beat you by one post. I know that wouldn't have slipped by you. Holy crap, 12 years later, could it be? 12 years later? I got zero march 2001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I give this one to Ji. He posted about this in the real world first. I call him mini JB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 12 years later? I got zero march 2001 yea me neither, 12 years later to make the fantasy a reality. You got to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Some winters get bailed out very late 1977,78,79,83,87,93,94,96,2000,03,06,10 were all good or better so once every 3/4 years. 2013-14 will be Rockin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 If I may say frankly, lolz for looking at the analogs for a 228 hr GFS. Grasping for every straw we can... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 If I may say frankly, lolz for looking at the analogs for a 228 hr GFS. Grasping for every straw we can... To be fair a lot of mets are liking the long range ENSEMBLES and how the pattern offers possibly the best potential of the year. Now, I understand it's far out, but its realistically the closest chance for snow because all the storms before the 28th probably won't take the right track/have enough cold air. I simply was astounded how strikingly similar the 500mb on the 00z GFS was to March 4-6 2001. I mean it was practically identical, almost as close as can be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 totally different solution on 6z. Low cuts to lakes and another low forms in the south and inland runner. Too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I love the long range talk on what might go right, but the 6z was a primer on one of the many things that can go wrong, aside from what mdsnowlover pointed out, that run brings significant cold into the area and crushes any possible threats in the March 1-6 range to roughly Cuba. Cold and dry for early March would be a swift kick to the jewels. ETA: Not at all saying it as depicted is "right" nor saying it is "wrong", just noting that run shows a solution that would explain how we could maintain the current streak of futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I love the long range talk on what might go right, but the 6z was a primer on one of the many things that can go wrong, aside from what mdsnowlover pointed out, that run brings significant cold into the area and crushes any possible threats in the March 1-6 range to roughly Cuba. Cold and dry for early March would be a swift kick to the jewels. ETA: Not at all saying it as depicted is "right" nor saying it is "wrong", just noting that run shows a solution that would explain how we could maintain the current streak of futility. excellent obserfations above my skill level. I just commented on the different track of the low from 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I love the long range talk on what might go right, but the 6z was a primer on one of the many things that can go wrong, aside from what mdsnowlover pointed out, that run brings significant cold into the area and crushes any possible threats in the March 1-6 range to roughly Cuba. Cold and dry for early March would be a swift kick to the jewels. ETA: Not at all saying it as depicted is "right" nor saying it is "wrong", just noting that run shows a solution that would explain how we could maintain the current streak of futility. Yeah, I do too. But like you say it only matters if is were to somehow actually come to fruition. It is nice to get geeked up about potential but it still being out where models don't excel has to be taken into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 euro ensemble mean and surface still look great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Nice CAD signature shows up on 6z gfs for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 You did not just post about the "Storm that Must Not Be Named"... That was a monster storm it just cut off too far north for us. That is always a risk. Look at the ku book close misses. Even with a great setup things can go wrong. Ill take my chances though. This time we just need the h5 to cut off to our south. Guidance right now says it should be further south then the 2001 storm but of course the models thought the same then too. We have a real shot at a significant storm that's all we can take from the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I think Randy knew I would say this, but the Day 9-10 pattern on the ensembles looks AMAZING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I think Randy knew I would say this, but the Day 9-10 pattern on the ensembles looks AMAZING. maybe, but I think the focus should be on what can go wrong because this year has always found the way for it to go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 maybe, but I think the focus should be on what can go wrong because this year has always found the way for it to go wrong Yeah, more likely Ian gets to satisfy his severe jollies like the Op Euro shows than we snow weenies get a 4th quarter bone thrown to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z GFS Day +11 analogs. Familiar dates showing up: Feb 13, 2010 (3-4 days after the 2nd blizzard), Feb 27, 2010 (huge storm for NY/SNE that just missed us), March 3, 2001 (may it's name live in infamy). Big caveat here...Miller B's!!! So, big storm chances and big bust chances. Yay for SNE though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z GFS Day +11 analogs. Familiar dates showing up: Feb 13, 2010 (3-4 days after the 2nd blizzard), Feb 27, 2010 (huge storm for NY/SNE that just missed us), March 3, 2001 (may it's name live in infamy). Big caveat here...Miller B's!!! So, big storm chances and big bust chances. Yay for SNE though! well if those dates don't convince everyone we will be close again but no cigar, I don't know what will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z Superensemble mean analogs were similar, but reordered a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I figure maybe we get a storm as the pattern breaks down. Maybe march 8-10? Since it is unlikely we will have a 3/7/07 or 3/9/99 air mass it would probably be mix or rain for the costal plain down here and snow north and west. That is my hope. So maybe I get a chance to chase above 1000' I for one hope you get a good snow without chasing Matt. You've worked hard, and had a very positive outlook in the face of one kick to the nads after another. I personally have less than zero faith in any modeled pattern, storm, anything at long range, but as always I remain hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Stepped away from this board for 4 days, come back and we're still talking about the D+10 pattern.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Euro ensemble 240 looks great, I know last time an ensemble looked great the whole thing crapped out a day later...so lets see if this signal follows through on ensuing runs but we couldnt ask for a better signal this far out for a big storm. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens/00zecmwfens500mbHGHTNA216.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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