mdsnowlover Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Credible PhD from MIT...here's hoping you do have many decades ahead to shovel snow...just remember to lift with your legs well thank you for that comment, I hope so too, I skii and play tennis now, so I,m in fairly good shape. But you never know. I appreciate things right now. But the comment I posted on was not encouraging at all. Thanks again. I dont shovel snow anymore, I have a torro snow blower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 There's always model that shows us what we want. You just have to look hard sometimes. Ji is the supreme master. Looking forward to posting the living crap out of your thread in a couple months. It might get really bad after Ian bans me from severe threads well, I stand by what I said to Matt a couple of months ago and that is, since 1950 every 3 yr. combo of 2 NINA's and then a NADA have been followed by a NINO, so even though we're only talking like 3 such setups during that period, those are still pretty good odds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 well thank you for that comment, I hope so too, I skii and play tennis now, so I,m in fairly good shape. But you never know. I appreciate things right now. But the comment I posted on was not encouraging at all. Thanks again. I dont shovel snow anymore, I have a torro snow blower. Well's here to many more days on the slopes with natural snow...instead of that machine made stuff they call snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I may always root for snow but I NEVER root for sno It's OK Chill Will...you and all on board will be happy campers when we have a real winter for a change...hang in there and get ready your fishing pole ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 well, I stand by what I said to Matt a couple of months ago and that is, since 1950 every 3 yr. combo of 2 NINA's and then a NADA have been followed by a NINO, so even though we're only talking like 3 such setups during that period, those are still pretty good odds I really hope that you are right, but a lot of the longer range ENSO models look to continue neutral conditions into next winter. I know that the skill at that range is not good, but that's the way it looks now. I'm not sure how a neutral following a neutral following 2 NINA's would go, but I suspect, not well. Another winter like this past one would be insufferable. Let's hope we see a gradual warming on the models as we get into spring/early summer. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I really hope that you are right, but a lot of the longer range ENSO models look to continue neutral conditions into next winter. I know that the skill at that range is not good, but that's the way it looks now. I'm not sure how a neutral following a neutral following 2 NINA's would go, but I suspect, not well. Another winter like this past one would be insufferable. Let's hope we see a gradual warming on the models as we get into spring/early summer. MDstorm After last fall forecasts we probably want the models to show a Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 After last fall forecasts we probably want the models to show a Nina Very true. Although, I'd have to go back and see if any of the models sniffed out the Nino fail earlier than any others. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 who made that comment?? I,m 65 your all much younger than I am. I dont have "decades" to wait!!! Tell me about it. I don't have much faith in the mini ice age idea but do think that if we can hold out another 4 years one of them will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro looks meh. Tho it does have the weekend coastal that gives us some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Tell me about it. I don't have much faith in the mini ice age idea but do think that if we can hold out another 4 years one of them will be good. If you can tell me now which one will be good, it will save me a lot of time and stress over the next 4 years. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Wait.. looks like there might be a midweek (next week) coastal with more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro looks meh. Tho it does have the weekend coastal that gives us some rain. NE blizzard? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro looks meh. Tho it does have the weekend coastal that gives us some rain. Then we have another cutter. The D+11 pattern on the superens mean looks the best its looked all year from us across the Atlantic but the Pacific side with the big negative anomaly over Alaska suggests that even if we get a southern storm track towards the 1st of the year, we might still struggle to have cold enough low level temps to get snow. It really likes March 2010 which I think was not that good for us despite having a negative NAO. Still, it's a better pattern than we've seen most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 NE blizzard? MDstorm mostly goes east.. some snow in pa and sne but not a ton. if it strengthens faster we might be able to pretend we have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Wait.. looks like there might be a midweek (next week) coastal with more rain. +10c+??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Wait.. looks like there might be a midweek (next week) coastal with more rain. You will need as much rain as you can get to prevent the spring droughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Then we have another cutter. The D+7 pattern on the superens mean looks the best its looked all year from us across the Atlantic but the Pacific side with the big negative anomaly over Alaska suggests that even if we get a southern storm track towards the 1st of the year, we might still struggle to have cold enough low level temps to get snow. It really likes March 2010 which I think was not that good for us despite having a negative NAO. Still, it's a better pattern than we've seen most of the winter. euro has a big ole 500 low over the sw late but it also has the lakes vortex kinda just chillin. i don't believe in march snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro looks meh. Tho it does have the weekend coastal that gives us some rain. Then we have another cutter. The D+7 pattern on the superens mean looks the best its looked all year from us Here we go...first stage of the cycle I posted restarted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 mostly goes east.. some snow in pa and sne but not a ton. if it strengthens faster we might be able to pretend we have a chance. Isn't there a cutter first which helps pull the cold air way north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 lakes low does start to push east by 240 with nice ull near tx ph. my guess is it will cut or shear out. man.. lots of qpf for the plains in this pattern on models. please please please! : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Here we go...first stage of the cycle I posted restarted. actually I thought D+11 and typed D+7 and if you read it in detail, the pacific is terrible, it just that the model looks like we would get a storm track to our south but then would struggle with cold air. Still, not a totally horrid pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Isn't there a cutter first which helps pull the cold air way north? yeah we have like +4C 850s for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 actually I thought D+11 and typed D+7 and if you read it in detail, the pacific is terrible, it just that the model looks like we would get a storm track to our south but then would struggle with cold air. Still, not a totally horrid pattern. At this point I just want a mid march coastal with lots of QPF which will be all rain or a 0.25" cartopper for me, but where I can hopefully go to 1800' north of frederick and see snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 At this point I just want a mid march coastal with lots of QPF which will be all rain or a 0.25" cartopper for me, but where I can hopefully go to 1800' north of frederick and see snow.... how about a March 1-3 coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 hm says to "keep your eyes open" on the east coast with a neg nao and positive pna for approximately the next two weeks. Said the last time the nao went as negative as it supposedly may was with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Well, I finally bought a new ruler, so....we have that workin for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 how about a March 1-3 coastal Feb 31 can work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Feb 31 can work Start a thread. I'll guarantee it by tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 we need an ULL...a strong vort or deep shortwave progressive trough will do nothing...Until I see something close off south of us, I will assume no storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 we need an ULL...a strong vort or deep shortwave progressive trough will do nothing...Until I see something close off south of us, I will assume no storm Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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