Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 1" of liquid equiv for Kansas is a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Good idea. Anyway, Bob got his wish on the low. What was once a strong low in Iowa now doesn't exist. It dies in the Ok panhandle. We have the temps on Friday morning. Guess what we don't have. Shocker. What happens after remains to be seen, but if a low magically now appears in the lakes we can really say anything can happen. Yes It does exist and is now a weak low in Iowa at 102hr and a low in mN at 108. More importantly, the upper low is strong and is located up in the nrthern plains so there is a ridge over the southeast. That why we end up having the front come though with very light precip with the zero isotherm already to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It looks like the GFS is trying to develop a coastal off of the front over the weekend. Is this something that we should keep an eye on? Or is it simply wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yes It does exist and is now a weak low in Iowa at 102hr and a low in mN at 108. More importantly, the upper low is strong and is located up in the nrthern plains so there is a ridge over the southeast. That why we end up having the front come though with very light precip with the zero isotherm already to our north. That and being on the good side of the low developing along the trailing front taking a fairly good track still can't overcome the warm draw from the stoopid low on MN area. However, there's a decent hp in an ok spot over canada. If the n plains lp loses it's grip early enough (highly unlikely) and the low to our south gets cranking earlier it could be another really close but no cigar here and demolish SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That and being on the good side of the low developing along the trailing front taking a fairly good track still can't overcome the warm draw from the stoopid low on MN area. However, there's a decent hp in an ok spot over canada. If the n plains lp loses it's grip early enough (highly unlikely) and the low to our south gets cranking earlier it could be another really close but no cigar here and demolish SNE. Good call, it might be able to produce some icing for the far northwestern and western crew but for us in and around DC, looks like more rain with the next low already getting into the cutter mode in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That and being on the good side of the low developing along the trailing front taking a fairly good track still can't overcome the warm draw from the stoopid low on MN area. However, there's a decent hp in an ok spot over canada. If the n plains lp loses it's grip early enough (highly unlikely) and the low to our south gets cranking earlier it could be another really close but no cigar here and demolish SNE. It really wouldnt take a lot for that storm to produce for the western burbs like Wes said. The cutter is quickly becoming a non storm. If that vort is a little bit stronger we could be in decent shape. I should really just give up at this point. But my weenieism is legendary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 frankly, there is nothing different today than the past few weeks so unless seasonal changes are happening under the radar, so to speak, expect another miss for us and another hit for NE NINANINANINANINA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It really wouldnt take a lot for that storm to produce for the western burbs like Wes said. The cutter is quickly becoming a non storm. If that vort is a little bit stronger we could be in decent shape. I should really just give up at this point. But my weenieism is legendary. It's worth watching because of the secondary development. That's still being figured out. Euro has a different solution. Expecting anything beyond a minor inconvenience is bullish though. There's nothing else to watch so it's either that or nothing over the next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 A ray of hope for all winter lovers..."In the decade(s) that lie ahead, we will be moving to into a "mini ice age" with harsher cold, dangerous winter storms, and longer winters." Good times are coming in the winter's for year's to come Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 A ray of hope for all winter lovers..."In the decade(s) that lie ahead, we will be moving to into a "mini ice age" with harsher cold, dangerous winter storms, and longer winters." Good times are coming in the winter's for year's to come who made that comment?? I,m 65 your all much younger than I am. I dont have "decades" to wait!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Good reminder I need to update my ignore list... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 who made that comment?? I,m 65 your all much younger than I am. I dont have "decades" to wait!!! Credible PhD from MIT...here's hoping you do have many decades ahead to shovel snow...just remember to lift with your legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 A ray of hope for all winter lovers..."In the decade(s) that lie ahead, we will be moving to into a "mini ice age" with harsher cold, dangerous winter storms, and longer winters." Good times are coming in the winter's for year's to come Must be a Bastardi quote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Must be a Bastardi quote. That was my first guess but don't see any twitter ramblings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That was my first guess but don't see any twitter ramblings. darn shame Joe got NAM'ed with that 6" snow prog it had for us last week that he so carefully analyzed before posting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Good reminder I need to update my ignore list... Baltimore Jen I'm glad I made the list...and even happier not to live in MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Unless there is a massive high-lattitude volcanic eruption, a large-scale nuclear war, or a comet impact I hold zero hope of experiencing a truly cold winter again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Unless there is a massive high-lattitude volcanic eruption, a large-scale nuclear war, or a comet impact I hold zero hope of experiencing a truly cold winter again. We have have had cold winters recently or at least cold months in winters. We might just be in a weird stretch and the 60s are around the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 fwiw, looks like at least a minor strat warming event trying to get its act together over the next 10 days I've been watching this site hoping for something and now it looks like something is showing up, albeit not very strong at this time here's a link to the 30mb maps, just click on next to run thru the next 10 days http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=all&lng=eng#fig1 frankly, I don't think this would do much for us so we need to root for something more.....like a miracle maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 We have enough cold around to have plenty of snow even if its not bitter. Precipitation actually colliding with cold seems to be a different story.....queue wnwxluvr... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 fwiw, looks like at least a minor strat warming event trying to get its act together over the next 10 days I've been watching this site hoping for something and now it looks like something is showing up, albeit not very strong at this time here's a link to the 30mb maps, just click on next to run thru the next 10 days http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=all&lng=eng#fig1 frankly, I don't think this would do much for us so we need to root for something more.....like a miracle maybe? Considering the lag time....cold late march and early April's are great for sne. Phin hasn't seen cold/wet for a while so he should be stoked even though it's 50 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 We have enough cold around to have plenty of snow even if its not bitter. Precipitation actually colliding with cold seems to be a different story.....queue wnwxluvr... I'm not wnwxluv, but our problem remains the large scale pattern generated by the NINA or NINA hangover (as I'm sure you know) we need at least a weak NINO to change our luck next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Baltimore Jen I'm glad I made the list...and even happier not to live in MD Enough of you already. Begone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 We have have had cold winters recently or at least cold months in winters. We might just be in a weird stretch and the 60s are around the corner. We've had cold spells, but when was the last true arctic air with single-digit highs or colder? 1994 or 1996? I mean PDII qualified, but that was only 1 day. I suppose 09-10 was cooler than normal as a whole, but there were no stretches of truly frigid temps, and that was with a ridiculous blocking regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I don't think this would do much for us so we need to root for something more.....like a miracle maybe? Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I'm not wnwxluv, but our problem remains the large scale pattern generated by the NINA oir NINA hangover (as I'm sure you know) we need at least a weak NINO to change our luck next year I fully expect you to start the never too early to speculate enso thread in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I may always root for snow but I NEVER root for sno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I fully expect you to start the never too early to speculate enso thread in May. nope, not me....unless, of course, one lr model shows a NINO something along these lines for instance in the Sept-Nov. target season http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Enough of you already. Begone! Fingers crossed that works... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 nope, not me....unless, of course, one lr model shows a NINO something along these lines for instance in the Sept-Nov. target season http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en There's always model that shows us what we want. You just have to look hard sometimes. Ji is the supreme master. Looking forward to posting the living crap out of your thread in a couple months. It might get really bad after Ian bans me from severe threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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