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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread Part 2


yoda

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Good idea.

Anyway, Bob got his wish on the low. What was once a strong low in Iowa now doesn't exist. It dies in the Ok panhandle. We have the temps on Friday morning. Guess what we don't have. Shocker.

What happens after remains to be seen, but if a low magically now appears in the lakes we can really say anything can happen.

 

Yes It does exist and is now a weak low in Iowa at 102hr and a low in mN at 108.  More importantly, the upper low is strong and is located up in the nrthern plains so there is a ridge over the southeast.  That why we end up having the front come though with very light precip with the zero isotherm already to our north.   

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Yes It does exist and is now a weak low in Iowa at 102hr and a low in mN at 108. More importantly, the upper low is strong and is located up in the nrthern plains so there is a ridge over the southeast. That why we end up having the front come though with very light precip with the zero isotherm already to our north.

That and being on the good side of the low developing along the trailing front taking a fairly good track still can't overcome the warm draw from the stoopid low on MN area. However, there's a decent hp in an ok spot over canada. If the n plains lp loses it's grip early enough (highly unlikely) and the low to our south gets cranking earlier it could be another really close but no cigar here and demolish SNE.

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That and being on the good side of the low developing along the trailing front taking a fairly good track still can't overcome the warm draw from the stoopid low on MN area. However, there's a decent hp in an ok spot over canada. If the n plains lp loses it's grip early enough (highly unlikely) and the low to our south gets cranking earlier it could be another really close but no cigar here and demolish SNE.

 

Good call,  it might be able to produce some icing for the far northwestern and western crew but for us in and around DC,  looks like more rain with the next low already getting into the cutter mode in the plains. 

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That and being on the good side of the low developing along the trailing front taking a fairly good track still can't overcome the warm draw from the stoopid low on MN area. However, there's a decent hp in an ok spot over canada. If the n plains lp loses it's grip early enough (highly unlikely) and the low to our south gets cranking earlier it could be another really close but no cigar here and demolish SNE.

 

It really wouldnt take a lot for that storm to produce for the western burbs like Wes said. The cutter is quickly becoming a non storm. If that vort is a little bit stronger we could be in decent shape. I should really just give up at this point. But my weenieism is legendary.

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It really wouldnt take a lot for that storm to produce for the western burbs like Wes said. The cutter is quickly becoming a non storm. If that vort is a little bit stronger we could be in decent shape. I should really just give up at this point. But my weenieism is legendary.

It's worth watching because of the secondary development. That's still being figured out. Euro has a different solution. Expecting anything beyond a minor inconvenience is bullish though. There's nothing else to watch so it's either that or nothing over the next week.

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A ray of hope for all winter lovers..."In the decade(s) that lie ahead, we will be moving to into a "mini ice age" with harsher cold, dangerous winter storms, and longer winters."

 

Good times are coming in the winter's for year's to come :santa:

who made that comment?? I,m 65 your all much younger than I am. I dont have "decades" to wait!!!

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Unless there is a massive high-lattitude volcanic eruption, a large-scale nuclear war, or a comet impact I hold zero hope of experiencing a truly cold winter again.

We have have had cold winters recently or at least cold months in winters. We might just be in a weird stretch and the 60s are around the corner.

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fwiw, looks like at least a minor strat warming event trying to get its act together over the next 10 days

I've been watching this site hoping for something and now it looks like something is showing up, albeit not very strong at this time

here's a link to the 30mb maps, just click on next to run thru the next 10 days

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=all&lng=eng#fig1

frankly, I don't think this would do much for us so we need to root for something more.....like a miracle maybe?

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fwiw, looks like at least a minor strat warming event trying to get its act together over the next 10 days

I've been watching this site hoping for something and now it looks like something is showing up, albeit not very strong at this time

here's a link to the 30mb maps, just click on next to run thru the next 10 days

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=all&lng=eng#fig1

frankly, I don't think this would do much for us so we need to root for something more.....like a miracle maybe?

Considering the lag time....cold late march and early April's are great for sne. Phin hasn't seen cold/wet for a while so he should be stoked even though it's 50 and rain.

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We have enough cold around to have plenty of snow even if its not bitter. Precipitation actually colliding with cold seems to be a different story.....queue wnwxluvr...

I'm not wnwxluv, but our problem remains the large scale pattern generated by the NINA or NINA hangover (as I'm sure you know)

we need at least a weak NINO to change our luck next year

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We have have had cold winters recently or at least cold months in winters. We might just be in a weird stretch and the 60s are around the corner.

 

We've had cold spells, but when was the last true arctic air with single-digit highs or colder?  1994 or 1996?  I mean PDII qualified, but that was only 1 day.  I suppose 09-10 was cooler than normal as a whole, but there were no stretches of truly frigid temps, and that was with a ridiculous blocking regime.

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nope, not me....unless, of course, one lr model shows a NINO

something along these lines for instance in the Sept-Nov. target season :whistle:

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

There's always model that shows us what we want. You just have to look hard sometimes. Ji is the supreme master.

Looking forward to posting the living crap out of your thread in a couple months. It might get really bad after Ian bans me from severe threads

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