ravensrule Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 SNE going to get blasted again , this is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 This is a pretty good setup/pattern here on the 12z EURO 240hr ENSEMBLE MEAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 IN case you are wondering what happens after the Euro 240....the EURO Control shows a superstorm.....probably strongest storm since 1993. 850's below zero for entire event despite lack of High If this was only under 240 hours away, I might believe it. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 If this was only under 240 hours away, I might believe it. MDstorm it actually develops at hour 220:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 it actually develops at hour 220:) You got me on that one. Plus JB did say an east coast superstorm was likely before March 5. It better be more super than the March 2001 storm. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 If this was only under 240 hours away, I might believe it. MDstorm I'm all in. Already mortgaged the kids college fund. What's a few more chips to throw away. Repeat 93 for the win! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Not really lack of high. High is in tx, with isobars coming out of Canada toward us Sent from my ADR6425LVW using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 lol Edit: at the comments prior to Matt's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 it is a reach, but that is obviously the last gasp for you and me unless some totally weird bizarre thing happens like some superstorm... we haven't taken advantage of any opportunity yet, so we are probably screwed, but at least we can say we might have a slim chance....in a lot of past years it was pretty easy to cancel by now when all the modeling screamed 60s/70s and no blocking....this year there is reason to pay attention even though the rug will get pulled out again... Yeah I hear ya. I think there is probably some potential there as well just that looking at D10 seems like all we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The MJO inducing a bit of SE ridge really hurt the Feb 20-27 period for the southeast and M.A. The Atlantic is progged to be pretty good...esp the the unique Hudson Bay block. If we could have had a bit of a western ridge with that and the active southern stream, that's how you get those PDII type setups...obviously an extreme example, but you get the idea. It supplies the cold more efficiently into the southeast and keeps the primary storm track underneath the OH valley. The western ridge progged for early March is pretty impressive as modeled on the Ec ensembles. Obviously that is pretty far out, so we'll have to wait and see how it looks as we get closer, but that is what you want to see for trying to get a late season event in the M.A. I wish we had one last arctic reinforcement before that, but all the deep cold is on the wrong side of the pole. But at least there would be a shot in that pattern. So I'd agree with zwyts that the Mar 1-7 period is prob the best to look at...doesn't mean something can't happen earlier, but the longwave pattern favors a bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 we have no choice anymore...there is about 3 minutes left in the 4th quarter, we are down 24-3 and need a TD and then an onside kick and another TD just to cover the spread The fact is we need a Joe Flacco/Jacoby Jones against the Broncos...except its vs. Mother Nature instead. The winter has sucked, better than last year, but still awful. We need to realize that unless its a Nino winter, we all better buy a winter vacation house in the northeast ASAP to get our snow fix. I know personally I need it. Too bad the wife gives a rats a$$ about snow. I just had the divorce papers drawn up.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 At the.risk of being a weenie here I think the early march window for a major east coast storm is real. It's not a model blip its supported by the way this type of pattern is likely to evolve. We have blocking and if we do get a Pna ridge then the most likely way that breaks down in march is a big storm. I'm buying it but that doesn't mean we get snow. As will pointed out there won't be much cold so we would need some love from the h5 low most likely a la 1958. It's all we have left so might as well watch and see. It's 4th down 3 seconds left at our own 20 down by 7. Go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I'll take a loss and field goal. The more favorable lw pattern showed up for weeks. It's here now. For better or for worse. Let's do this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 At the.risk of being a weenie here I think the early march window for a major east coast storm is real. It's not a model blip its supported by the way this type of pattern is likely to evolve. We have blocking and if we do get a Pna ridge then the most likely way that breaks down in march is a big storm. I'm buying it but that doesn't mean we get snow. As will pointed out there won't be much cold so we would need some love from the h5 low most likely a la 1958. It's all we have left so might as well watch and see. It's 4th down 3 seconds left at our own 20 down by 7. Go big or go home. Well that is basically the same position the Ravens were in at Denver. I guess its to much to ask for to have 2 miracles within 2 months. I too agree with the window in early March but the amount of available cold is worrisome .Its funny you referenced the 58 storm because I was just thinking about that the other day. I would have loved to experience that storm. Can you imagine almost 30 inches of heavy wet snow in March in northern MD. I read that some areas in southern PA got 4ft. The same rates we had here the other night for 1 hour lasted for hours on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Morgantown PA got 50" of snow from the March 58 Blizzard....I enjoy spring storms because they can be violent and I absolutely adore closed ULLs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Morgantown PA got 50" of snow from the March 58 Blizzard....I enjoy spring storms because they can be violent and I absolutely adore closed ULLs Yes, That's the name of the town I couldn't remeber. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 not sure about the ~2/28 threat...I assume it will cut or fizzle out, but it could be real if the PNA spikes quick enough....I'd say for my backyard between now and 3/10, there is about an 80% I will get 0-2" and 20" >2" The PAC getting out of the sh**ter is real I think beyond 2/28...the big question with any storm (aside from the obvious detail of the track) will be how far south cold air is available. The NAO blocking should be stout as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I want snow on my Easter eggs... but with our luck it will probably just Passover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I want snow on my Easter eggs... but with our luck it will probably just Passover Well Passover is very early this year so maybe we have a shot of seeing some snow on macaroons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The PAC getting out of the sh**ter is real I think beyond 2/28...the big question with any storm (aside from the obvious detail of the track) will be how far south cold air is available. The NAO blocking should be stout as well. Thanks Will for your input. It looks like precip will not be a problem down here, but temps will be the real issue. It is a shame (esp with the upcoming negative NAO)that the real cold air is on the other side of the pole. You seem to be in the cross hairs of a potentially very snowy pattern over the next 2-4 weeks.....really taking advantage of both your longitude and latitude. Throw a little this way if you can. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 SEEFS are getting precip in here by dawn Friday with 850"s and surface below freezing. Ok, start the ridicule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 SEEFS are getting precip in here by dawn Friday with 850"s and surface below freezing. Ok, start the ridicule. Well, after all of the drying out the models are getting wetter for Friday...so who knows...maybe some sort of trick is waiting. It is only Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Thanks Will for your input. It looks like precip will not be a problem down here, but temps will be the real issue. It is a shame (esp with the upcoming negative NAO)that the real cold air is on the other side of the pole. You seem to be in the cross hairs of a potentially very snowy pattern over the next 2-4 weeks.....really taking advantage of both your longitude and latitude. Throw a little this way if you can. MDstorm Yes I agree. Should be fairly wet over the next 2-3 weeks. Southern stream very active. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The 240hr storm (the wave on the EURO OP) is also showing up on the GFS, GEFS, EURO ens....Something to track, a lot of the individual GFS members show a big cold storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 not sure about the ~2/28 threat...I assume it will cut or fizzle out, but it could be real if the PNA spikes quick enough....I'd say for my backyard between now and 3/10, there is about an 80% I will get 0-2" and 20" >2" I agree with will and PSU, the pattern starts looking really interesting from around 28th on with the torugh getting in a good place in the pacific, ridging along the west coast and high heights across canada and greenland. I think you are too low with your 2" probability. It's a pretty good pattern. Too bad it waiting until March to show up. When the ridging gets back to into the west, we probably will also have some modestly cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The pattern starts looking really interesting from around 28th on with the torugh getting in a good place in the pacific, ridging along the west coast and high heights across canada and greenland. I think you are too low with your 2" probability. It's a pretty good pattern. Too bad it waiting until March to show up. When the ridging gets back to into the west, we probably will also have some modestly cold air to work with. Wes likes the pattern <3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The PAC getting out of the sh**ter is real I think beyond 2/28...the big question with any storm (aside from the obvious detail of the track) will be how far south cold air is available. The NAO blocking should be stout as well. After giving it some further thought, perhaps the deepest cold beong on the other side of the pole may not be that bad. The amount of cold is always a concern for us down here but if the NAO goes severly negative and stays there for an extended period time there should still be enough cold left to give us a decent chance whereas if the deepest cold was on our side of the pole with such a strong block and good Pacific all the cold would be forced under the block potentially suppressing the storm track and overwhelming the pattern with cold leaving us high and dry. I'll take my chances withe a negative NAO and good Pacific and let the chips fall where they may. I hope this is a distinct possibilty rather than me just wishcasting in desperate times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I want snow on my Easter eggs... but with our luck it will probably just Passover Good one!!! I think we all involuntarily gave up snow for Lent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Well that is basically the same position the Ravens were in at Denver. I guess its to much to ask for to have 2 miracles within 2 months. I too agree with the window in early March but the amount of available cold is worrisome .Its funny you referenced the 58 storm because I was just thinking about that the other day. I would have loved to experience that storm. Can you imagine almost 30 inches of heavy wet snow in March in northern MD. I read that some areas in southern PA got 4ft. The same rates we had here the other night for 1 hour lasted for hours on end. Westminster did record 30" some reports from our area were close to 40. 50" in southeast pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I hope you're right...I think me and you really lose realistic chances after 3/10....I haven't gotten a 2" storm after March 9th since 1993 This pattern looks really good but you are right realistically it's coming at the tail end of when it has any chance of mattering for dc. Luckily it looks like you have a solid 10 days and several waves that could get that one fluke to break our streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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