MDstorm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 well, I stand by what I said to Matt a couple of months ago and that is, since 1950 every 3 yr. combo of 2 NINA's and then a NADA have been followed by a NINO, so even though we're only talking like 3 such setups during that period, those are still pretty good odds I really hope that you are right, but a lot of the longer range ENSO models look to continue neutral conditions into next winter. I know that the skill at that range is not good, but that's the way it looks now. I'm not sure how a neutral following a neutral following 2 NINA's would go, but I suspect, not well. Another winter like this past one would be insufferable. Let's hope we see a gradual warming on the models as we get into spring/early summer. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I really hope that you are right, but a lot of the longer range ENSO models look to continue neutral conditions into next winter. I know that the skill at that range is not good, but that's the way it looks now. I'm not sure how a neutral following a neutral following 2 NINA's would go, but I suspect, not well. Another winter like this past one would be insufferable. Let's hope we see a gradual warming on the models as we get into spring/early summer. MDstorm After last fall forecasts we probably want the models to show a Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 After last fall forecasts we probably want the models to show a Nina Very true. Although, I'd have to go back and see if any of the models sniffed out the Nino fail earlier than any others. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 who made that comment?? I,m 65 your all much younger than I am. I dont have "decades" to wait!!! Tell me about it. I don't have much faith in the mini ice age idea but do think that if we can hold out another 4 years one of them will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro looks meh. Tho it does have the weekend coastal that gives us some rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Tell me about it. I don't have much faith in the mini ice age idea but do think that if we can hold out another 4 years one of them will be good. If you can tell me now which one will be good, it will save me a lot of time and stress over the next 4 years. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Wait.. looks like there might be a midweek (next week) coastal with more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro looks meh. Tho it does have the weekend coastal that gives us some rain. NE blizzard? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro looks meh. Tho it does have the weekend coastal that gives us some rain. Then we have another cutter. The D+11 pattern on the superens mean looks the best its looked all year from us across the Atlantic but the Pacific side with the big negative anomaly over Alaska suggests that even if we get a southern storm track towards the 1st of the year, we might still struggle to have cold enough low level temps to get snow. It really likes March 2010 which I think was not that good for us despite having a negative NAO. Still, it's a better pattern than we've seen most of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 NE blizzard? MDstorm mostly goes east.. some snow in pa and sne but not a ton. if it strengthens faster we might be able to pretend we have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Wait.. looks like there might be a midweek (next week) coastal with more rain. +10c+??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Wait.. looks like there might be a midweek (next week) coastal with more rain. You will need as much rain as you can get to prevent the spring droughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Then we have another cutter. The D+7 pattern on the superens mean looks the best its looked all year from us across the Atlantic but the Pacific side with the big negative anomaly over Alaska suggests that even if we get a southern storm track towards the 1st of the year, we might still struggle to have cold enough low level temps to get snow. It really likes March 2010 which I think was not that good for us despite having a negative NAO. Still, it's a better pattern than we've seen most of the winter. euro has a big ole 500 low over the sw late but it also has the lakes vortex kinda just chillin. i don't believe in march snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Euro looks meh. Tho it does have the weekend coastal that gives us some rain. Then we have another cutter. The D+7 pattern on the superens mean looks the best its looked all year from us Here we go...first stage of the cycle I posted restarted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 mostly goes east.. some snow in pa and sne but not a ton. if it strengthens faster we might be able to pretend we have a chance. Isn't there a cutter first which helps pull the cold air way north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 lakes low does start to push east by 240 with nice ull near tx ph. my guess is it will cut or shear out. man.. lots of qpf for the plains in this pattern on models. please please please! : Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Here we go...first stage of the cycle I posted restarted. actually I thought D+11 and typed D+7 and if you read it in detail, the pacific is terrible, it just that the model looks like we would get a storm track to our south but then would struggle with cold air. Still, not a totally horrid pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Isn't there a cutter first which helps pull the cold air way north? yeah we have like +4C 850s for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 At this point I just want a mid march coastal with lots of QPF which will be all rain or a 0.25" cartopper for me, but where I can hopefully go to 1800' north of frederick and see snow.... how about a March 1-3 coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 hm says to "keep your eyes open" on the east coast with a neg nao and positive pna for approximately the next two weeks. Said the last time the nao went as negative as it supposedly may was with Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Well, I finally bought a new ruler, so....we have that workin for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 how about a March 1-3 coastal Feb 31 can work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Feb 31 can work Start a thread. I'll guarantee it by tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 we need an ULL...a strong vort or deep shortwave progressive trough will do nothing...Until I see something close off south of us, I will assume no storm Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 hm says to "keep your eyes open" on the east coast with a neg nao and positive pna for approximately the next two weeks. Said the last time the nao went as negative as it supposedly may was with Sandy. And just like with Sandy, all that we'll see is another cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 GFS showing hints of something closed/cutoff to our south in this time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 lakes low does start to push east by 240 with nice ull near tx ph. my guess is it will cut or shear out. man.. lots of qpf for the plains in this pattern on models. please please please! : That lines up with projected MJO. Could be a cool and dreary spring coming. Not good after another disastrous winter for you city folk. Edit: Unless you like cold and dreary springs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 That lines up with projected MJO. Could be a cool and dreary spring coming. Not good after another disastrous winter for you city folk. Edit: Unless you like cold and dreary springs. I'll take an EC trough in Mar/April if it means a ridge in May/June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Feb 31 can work Ian you know there are only 30 days in Feb....well except leap years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 that wave on the 240hr EURO looks like it would have a chance...dont kill me for saying that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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