Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 18z gfs says we won't get warm the entire run. Nice coastal or 2 out there in lalalockitup range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 18z gfs says we won't get warm the entire run. Nice coastal or 2 out there in lalalockitup range. NE gets frindged with the Feb 21-22nd storm. Makes sense. Maybe if the low coastal low develops later and further south and the colder air has time to come in? Ah, whoo am I kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I guess the western burbs are getting snow Tuesday morning?...congrats Winter mix/ maybe some icy roadways in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I actually root for cool but not overly wet springs. Spring run of trophy stripers in the bay get chased out early with warm water temps. I'm all for backdoor fronts from mid march thru mid April. I have a sneaking suspicion we are in for a neg nao regime for a bit. Even though its timing sucks for snow It helps on other ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I like it cold as long as possible...nothing is better than a cold may/june...it shortens summer...when you get a hot may/june it makes summer just unbearable This times about a quadrillion. July and August are pretty bad. Walking outside and immediately being drenched is not something that I find particularly appealing...even if we are shooting for a record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Last couple of summers with being so hot have really made fishing tough. I fish lots of local tournaments and many fisherman like me have noticed during many weigh ins how small some of the catches are. Weigh ins are by 5pm and its still 95 outside. Get my drift? It has been awhile since we have had cooler summers but what can you do? Try new methods but fishing when it's 100 degrees is not fun either!! When it gets hot earlier then the normal then it seems by July fishing is tough unless its 5am or 7pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 March snow is kinda rare but this could be one of those years. Teleconnections do point towards a blocky pattern with a +pna building through early march. I'm not hyping anything because all I'm pointing out is a longwave pattern that could sneak a march snow in. If it's 40 and rain I would hardly be shocked. I would be surprised if we go sustained warm anytime soon. Get ready for the whiny I want spring and it's chilly posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 March snow is kinda rare but this could be one of those years. Teleconnections do point towards a blocky pattern with a +pna building through early march. I'm not hyping anything because all I'm pointing out is a longwave pattern that could sneak a march snow in. If it's 40 and rain I would hardly be shocked. I would be surprised if we go sustained warm anytime soon. Get ready for the whiny I want spring and it's chilly posts. if ppl like that kind of stuff they should follow me on twitter. (see sig) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I suppose it wouldn't be too far fetched to get a decent event in March. In 08/09, BWI had 5.8" in March. 5 of the last 20 years have seen 4" or greater in March at BWI, so certainly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I don't mind it being a cooler spring, as long as we get plenty of sunny days. Being stuck under a cutoff low for days on end, with clouds and drizzle - no thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 For most of DC March 7th is about the end of it. 1993 is an exception but usually by then it's 55 the day before and 55 the day after. It's not March 7th though and 2/15-2/28 can still be cold and make up for a bad winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Keep the heat out of Baltimore until I'm gone for the summer please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 We may have a. March 1st coastal. An "Ides of March" thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 We may have a. March 1st coastal. An "Ides of March" thread? This board is in mourning. Hard to get exicited with our track record so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 No storm threads until the first inch is on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 We may have a. March 1st coastal. An "Ides of March" thread? I think "Ides" refers to the 15th of each month, so in terms of a storm that's always 15 days away, it would fit the theme of the past two winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Sadly, recent history has shown that you cannot punt these model "threats" soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I know I'm reaching, but the Canadian high pressure that has been running scared on the models for the past few days, looks like its trying to hang a little tough for Friday on the 6z gfs. Don't get me wrong. It's still not a win for us, but I'll play cheerleader until the next model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I know I'm reaching, but the Canadian high pressure that has been running scared on the models for the past few days, looks like its trying to hang a little tough for Friday on the 6z gfs. Don't get me wrong. It's still not a win for us, but I'll play cheerleader until the next model run. What we really want is the primary low to die as fast as possible and as far west as possible. If the waa in front of that low shuts off earlier then the canadian hp can go to work on 850 and below. It's a big stretch but there is secondary development and it has trended wetter for us. We're just getting fooked by temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I just looked through last night's euro. It's messy but does show some stuff to watch. Wave skirts south of us on the 24th (gfs not showing this). Temps not there but not far away. Low prob obviously. Messy ice/sleet potential on the 27th with a similar mw cutter / slug out in front / and hints of something devoloping on the trailing front. Cool and messy appears to be the theme through the end of the month and into early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 What we really want is the primary low to die as fast as possible and as far west as possible. If the waa in front of that low shuts off earlier then the canadian hp can go to work on 850 and below. It's a big stretch but there is secondary development and it has trended wetter for us. We're just getting fooked by temps. I'd feel even a little optimistic if we weren't carrying the burden of "The Streak," but I'll throw an eye of newt and lizard tongue into my cereal this morning just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I'd feel even a little optimistic if we weren't carrying the burden of "The Streak," but I'll throw an eye of newt and lizard tongue into my cereal this morning just in case. I'm not optimistic either but it's not off the table yet. Enjoy the lizard tongue though. I heard they taste good with frosted mini-wheats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 No storm threads until the first inch is on the ground. Which means no more storm threads...ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I'm seriously considering a ban on storm threads until we're within 6 hours of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I'm seriously considering a ban on storm threads until we're within 6 hours of the storm.Good idea.Anyway, Bob got his wish on the low. What was once a strong low in Iowa now doesn't exist. It dies in the Ok panhandle. We have the temps on Friday morning. Guess what we don't have. Shocker. What happens after remains to be seen, but if a low magically now appears in the lakes we can really say anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Our problem is the inability for anything to amplify south of us. Storms either cut way north or if they can't just wash out. Either way nothing is amplifying to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 1" of liquid equiv for Kansas is a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Good idea. Anyway, Bob got his wish on the low. What was once a strong low in Iowa now doesn't exist. It dies in the Ok panhandle. We have the temps on Friday morning. Guess what we don't have. Shocker. What happens after remains to be seen, but if a low magically now appears in the lakes we can really say anything can happen. Yes It does exist and is now a weak low in Iowa at 102hr and a low in mN at 108. More importantly, the upper low is strong and is located up in the nrthern plains so there is a ridge over the southeast. That why we end up having the front come though with very light precip with the zero isotherm already to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 It looks like the GFS is trying to develop a coastal off of the front over the weekend. Is this something that we should keep an eye on? Or is it simply wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yes It does exist and is now a weak low in Iowa at 102hr and a low in mN at 108. More importantly, the upper low is strong and is located up in the nrthern plains so there is a ridge over the southeast. That why we end up having the front come though with very light precip with the zero isotherm already to our north. That and being on the good side of the low developing along the trailing front taking a fairly good track still can't overcome the warm draw from the stoopid low on MN area. However, there's a decent hp in an ok spot over canada. If the n plains lp loses it's grip early enough (highly unlikely) and the low to our south gets cranking earlier it could be another really close but no cigar here and demolish SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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