Amped Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Bob, we have a no win, no win winter. Incredible. I am hoping for some severe this spring. We'll have a couple more close but no cigar events. Long range pattern doesn't look bad once we get rid of the SE ridge. March is a much less progressive if we do get another event. However arctic air may not return like 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On a 500mb map it is where the isoheights (lines) converge/diverge. 300mb is basically the same but within a jetstreak (area of higher winds) it is separated into quadrants like this: Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 We'll have a couple more close but no cigar events. Long range pattern doesn't look bad once we get rid of the SE ridge. March is a much less progressive if we do get another event. However arctic air may not return like 2010. The good and not so funny thing about this winter is the close but no cigar events. It's not like it couldn't snow this year. It just wouldn't snow. There a difference. Lol. What's worse? Zero chance or failed chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 NWP models are built on these fundamental physical equations, to suggest a model solution couldn't occur is kinda crazy. I didn't suggest it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The good and not so funny thing about this winter is the close but no cigar events. It's not like it couldn't snow this year. It just wouldn't snow. There a difference. Lol. What's worse? Zero chance or failed chance? What's worse? Easy. Failed chance, hands down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Tell you what though, there are at least 6 gfs members that don't have the same scenario as the op. the next couple of days might see this start acting differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Where do you find that information (divergence/convergence) when looking at a model output? You can also get a rough sense of it from looking at the lines on the 500 mb chart. If you follow them going from east to west across teh country where the lines get closer together you have confluence and usually pressures will build under than confluent flow. In advance of an upper level trough there is usually an area of upper level divergence especially with a trough that takes on a negative tilt (the southern end of the trough get farther east than the northern end. Thats what happens prior the low lifting northward over the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Tell you what though, there are at least 6 gfs members that don't have the same scenario as the op. the next couple of days might see this start acting differently. The mean pattern still favors a low tracking towards Iowa, once that happens then I think the evolution can differ but I don't see this pattern taking the primary low to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 GFS looks like its about to be one heck of a sheared out mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 GFS looks like its about to be one heck of a sheared out mess. Check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Winter is OVER Weenie post of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 GFS looks like its about to be one heck of a sheared out mess. Torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Check. One way to look at is that if it showed a good solution now there would be an almost 100% chance it would be wrong. So, maybe there's the chance that this is wrong as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Winter is OVER Weenie post of the year And likely wrong, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 And likely wrong, IMO. GFS continues to go in the wrong direction... I don't like it. now tries to spawn a coastal but too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 This is hilarity at it's finest and cruelest. Pops a coastal. Torch. Phineas Theorem in full affect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 make it stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 GFS continues to go in the wrong direction... I don't like it. now tries to spawn a coastal but too warm. Primary lifts and dies pretty far west. What happened to our cold air/CAD? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 make it stop I want off this ride. NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 this is the HM KU FU Storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I want off this ride. NOW. The sad reality is that we're on for life. It's like the Hotel California. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I still say its better than it looking good. Wouldn't this storm be highly dependent on the early week storm....IOW.....not set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 lol that is an awesome solution. initial low becomes a lakes low that helps us torch for the coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 gfs seems to like floating the 0c 850 to our north a lot in recent runs and looks like weirdo cutoff season at 384. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 lol that is an awesome solution. initial low becomes a lakes low that helps us torch for the coastal. Meteogorically impossible. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Ash Wensday redox at 384hrs for those with no life. Ensembles also hinting at a possible 40F rain storm in that timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 0z EURO/GFS in good agreement for FRI/SAT. Decaying low over IA bumps up heights just in time for a coastal to form and pound us.....w/ RAIN. My finger is on the trigger..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 0z EURO/GFS in good agreement for FRI/SAT. Decaying low over IA bumps up heights just in time for a coastal to form and pound us.....w/ RAIN. My finger is on the trigger..... Yup...the whole 0Z suite looks like crap (GFS/Euro/GGEM). All show a similar scenario for next week (rain). In fact, the next 10 days look like any precip would be rain. So much for the negative NAO/blocking. Looks like the rest of Feb is fooked. Kinda sad as even some of the usually pessimistic mets were somewhat hopeful for the second half of Feb. Oh well, March could always be rockin'. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Yup...the whole 0Z suite looks like crap (GFS/Euro/GGEM). All show a similar scenario for next week (rain). In fact, the next 10 days look like any precip would be rain. So much for the negative NAO/blocking. Looks like the rest of Feb is fooked. Kinda sad as even some of the usually pessimistic mets were somewhat hopeful for the second half of Feb. Oh well, March could always be rockin'. MDstorm Anytime an index appeared to be in solidly our favor this winter, it was trumped or neutralized by something else being in the wrong phase or non existent. ENSO neutral (or what ended up more a weak Nina) heading into winter was a bad sign. We had the AO in our favor much of the time, but overwhelmingly bad Pacific. Then the PNA was positive for a time, and we had clipper-fest and our ONE week of legit cold with the PV camping out in SE Canada but NO southern stream involvement. Any HL blocking has been fleeting and poorly timed. And finally it was the favorable MJO that was going to save the winter with a rockin late January into February. Fail. Almost uncanny how not one time has anything aligned well to provide a truly favorable period for cold and winter storminess for the MA....and of course this after the debacle of last winter. The last real hope was the period through next week, but the familiar model tease appears over(except those who want to insist what is now being depicted is not possible by laws of physics or some BS) March....meh rarely produces around here and certainly would not expect it this year. I think most people even on this forum are finally fatigued and bored with this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I didn't suggest it. You weren't the traget of the meteorologically impossible post. I suspect that the target was a met who posts on facebook. The Friday threat now is hardly worth following though I guess some damming is still conceivable, the UKMET, GFS and Euro are pretty emphatic that the initial low will go towards the lakes and then screw it up for us by parking there as energy shear eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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