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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread Part 2


yoda

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the weekend system looks like it has quite a bit of potential.  high building in from the northwest as a system gets organized to the south and reforms along the coast.  at least on paper, it looks like one of our best setups all year.

 

There's also a train of moisture / pecip getting pulled from the gulf pre-850. PD2 was 10 years ago so I have little memories of the details. I was living in germantown at the time and we got hit good with waa overunning before the main course. 

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Euro has a stronger northern stream s/w than the GFS and goes with the Miller-B solution instead of the GFS idea for PD3.  Hopefully it gets BOS...*fingers and toes crossed!*

 

looks like they're screwed too

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There's also a train of moisture / pecip getting pulled from the gulf pre-850. PD2 was 10 years ago so I have little memories of the details. I was living in germantown at the time and we got hit good with waa overunning before the main course. 

 

yea i was in mont village at the time.  that was just an absurd storm.  those early morning hours on sunday we must have received 4-6" in a couple hours.  that snow was piling up quick with temps in the teens.

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FWIW...Ukie has a GFS-like monster for PD3 and GGEM has a huge storm too, but an inland runner.  Euro on the weak/north side of the guidance, but certainly a possible solution given about 1/3rd of the GEFS members had a similar solution.  

 

The GFS type solution more often than not doesn't pan out on these type of systems but with the UKMET firmly in the GFS corner, I think either solution is probably equally likely.  Sometimes it pays to be gutless.

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When you start talking like that it scares me, your track record sometimes is ,well, just is.

Watch out Norman, when I bring the trolling hammer down on you, there will be no mercy.

You got some nerve trolling me. You can't even nail down a storm 136 hours out. You sure you used to work for HPC?

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