mattie g Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 "Meteorological impossibility" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 "Meteorological impossibility" weenie phrase of the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 "Meteorological impossibility" I agree with you and the fireman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 "Meteorological impossibility" He's gonna have to explain how we should ignore the 12z EURO now too b/c it shows the same solution as 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 He's gonna have to explain how we should ignore the 12z EURO now too b/c it shows the same solution as 0z. low goes into iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro bullseyes DC on snow map. #wooohooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 low goes into iowa Funny thing is that both the GFS and Euro have been very consistent w/ that. At 168 on the Euro there is some redevelopment along the wave with lots of moisture just SE of DC. Temps are an issue and there doesn't appear to be much dynamics.....mostly a wave along the frontal boundary. IMO this is our only hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro bullseyes DC on snow map. #wooohooo It has a nice damming signature at 144 hrs so I'm not surprised. Hopefully, it doesn't have the unrealistic 10 inches that it had on one of the earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It has a nice damming signature at 144 hrs so I'm not surprised. Hopefully, it doesn't have the unrealistic 10 inches that it had on one of the earlier runs. 2-3" for most of DC/Balt area.. 3-4" right over DC and immediate surrounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 at 192 the moisture moves north again w/ a 1008 low off of HAT. Precip up to EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Funny thing is that both the GFS and Euro have been very consistent w/ that. At 168 on the Euro there is some redevelopment along the wave with lots of moisture just SE of DC. Temps are an issue and there doesn't appear to be much dynamics.....mostly a wave along the frontal boundary. IMO this is our only hope. Yes, both models have definitely been consistent in that regard. I'm assuming that "temps are an issue" means not only the BL, but the 850s are probably well above zero as whatever transfer occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 2-3" for most of DC/Balt area.. 3-4" right over DC and immediate surrounds. My guess would have been 1-3 before changeover based on the 144hr look to the RH surface but that might be drizzle with the dry slot if the precip came in quick enough. It's forecast is kind of reasonable. That doesn't mean it's right but it also doesn't look unusually goofy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The further west we can get the parent upper low the better chance we can pop some redevelopment to our south. Like wyoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Yes, both models have definitely been consistent in that regard. I'm assuming that "temps are an issue" means not only the BL, but the 850s are probably well above zero as whatever transfer occurs. Temps would be close b/c a SE ridge is nudging north. If we could get any semblance of a low to form we would likely be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The further west we can get the parent upper low the better chance we can pop some redevelopment to our south. Like wyoming. Let's go Cheyenne!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro bullseyes DC on snow map. #wooohooo what hour. 850 temps seem warm. ggem with a ton of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 what hour. 850 temps seem warm. ggem with a ton of precip mostly 144-150 but a bit after 150.. tho snow maps are not the best as you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ran the euro panels. Heh. We have no idea what we're in for do we? Cutting to IA is new. I suppose there is potential streak breaking within the envelope. What else can you say. Not a terrible thing seeing the waves running the front afterwards either. Plenty of juice around. The pattern isn't boring even though it isn't porn or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ran the euro panels. Heh. We have no idea what we're in for do we? Cutting to IA is new. I suppose there is potential streak breaking within the envelope. What else can you say. Not a terrible thing seeing the waves running the front afterwards either. Plenty of juice around. The pattern isn't boring even though it isn't porn or anything. More like crack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 in a normal year the snow/mix down south would move up the coast and we would have a nice snow storm. Not this year!!! bastardi on twitter PHL to DC another miss overall, Guess that summs up our winter !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It seems we have still not broken the pattern of systems not being able to amplify to our south. If they are able too they track to our north. We have been unable to get a good trough axis. They set up to our east and we get nothing but clippers then to our west and storms either cut or if they are forced south and sheared to crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GFS /12z/ 372hr, lol!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I think the -PDO regime that started in earnest in 2007 ushered in a new climo reality.....that unless we can get in a warm (Nino/Neutral) regime, we are looking at single digit snow winters (and still may be single digits) unless we get that one fluke/saving storm....so this winter is really just following the template of 07-08, 08-09, 10-11, 11-12....we pretty much stand in the same spot as those 4 winters...i think moving forward that is teh best course of action uf we arent in a nino or nino hangover state....assume single digit snow.... I've been wondering more and more about the open water on the atlantic side of the arctic circle. Doesn't matter why it's there. AMO AGW who cares. It's there though. And this "new" type of snow pattern started with the big ice min in 2007. On the flip side we are seeing some serious cold on the other side of the world. The siberian blocking hp shows up in a lot of 500 anom panels since 07 too. 09-10 had anomalous blocking like some of the 70's winters but it wasn't even that cold to be honest. But we had a smokin snow season so who cares. I'm not sure what I think about all this. It's not like there hasn't been snow all around us at times the last couple. Plenty can be chalked up to being at the wrong place at the wrong time. I won't buy the no nino no go yet. I don't think it's come to that specifically. Sure, nino's without question are the moneymakers but saying we can't have some near climo snow without one is a little bold. A couple more years in a row like that last 2 and the "fluke" side of the argument starts to kinda weak. Are we really in a "new normal"? Maybe. Maybe not. We sure don't seem to have the ability to get a really cold winter or even "normal" cold winter door to door anymore. But other parts of the NH have been breaking cold records so we can't say cold is simply absent in the NH. Delivery seems to be the biggest issue. PDO? Open water? ENSO? Who knows. It's interesting that many parts of the US are struggling with snow. The central rockies are having back to backs like they've never seen in a heck of a long time. The MW, lakes area, and even NNE aren't doing all that hot. We'll know over time but the trend isn't all that fun. There do appear to be things going on with changes in north american weather that haven't been figured out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Quick update here with dates and anomalies Have RWT S/W for Feb 26-27 with cooler conditions for time frame of Feb 27-March 3. RWT S/W for March 5/6 working with Mtn Torque even should ensure colder air in place over the north tier so I think there is the possibility for this to produce a decent storm for someone and then cooler conditions March 5-9. Have another RWT S/W expect March 7/8 with a brief stint of cooler air for the 8 and 9. And then behind it GWO analogs indicating a TORCH in the time frame of March 9-11. A 15-20 degree warm up from prior day temps. This warm could extend through the 13th IF there is strong southerly flow ahead of a S/W tentatively expected to arrive March 13-14th. That S/W should usher in at least a 5-10 degree drop in temps for March 15-16 and then a second shot of cooler air arrives behind another S/W tentatively marked for March 16/17 that will return the region to "normal" temps for March 17-21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I've been wondering more and more about the open water on the atlantic side of the arctic circle. Doesn't matter why it's there. AMO AGW who cares. It's there though. And this "new" type of snow pattern started with the big ice min in 2007. On the flip side we are seeing some serious cold on the other side of the world. The siberian blocking hp shows up in a lot of 500 anom panels since 07 too. 09-10 had anomalous blocking like some of the 70's winters but it wasn't even that cold to be honest. But we had a smokin snow season so who cares. I'm not sure what I think about all this. It's not like there hasn't been snow all around us at times the last couple. Plenty can be chalked up to being at the wrong place at the wrong time. I won't buy the no nino no go yet. I don't think it's come to that specifically. Sure, nino's without question are the moneymakers but saying we can't have some near climo snow without one is a little bold. A couple more years in a row like that last 2 and the "fluke" side of the argument starts to kinda weak. Are we really in a "new normal"? Maybe. Maybe not. We sure don't seem to have the ability to get a really cold winter or even "normal" cold winter door to door anymore. But other parts of the NH have been breaking cold records so we can't say cold is simply absent in the NH. Delivery seems to be the biggest issue. PDO? Open water? ENSO? Who knows. It's interesting that many parts of the US are struggling with snow. The central rockies are having back to backs like they've never seen in a heck of a long time. The MW, lakes area, and even NNE aren't doing all that hot. We'll know over time but the trend isn't all that fun. There do appear to be things going on with changes in north american weather that haven't been figured out yet. we cant have near climo without one as long as we have nina stink on us...nina or neutral will only work if it comes durng or after a warm period...unless you get a once in a century storm like 1/25/00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 This is a very good discussion but there is more at play here. Northern new eng usually does very well in a Nina and last year and this one have been awful up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 This is a very good discussion but there is more at play here. Northern new eng usually does very well in a Nina and last year and this one have been awful up there. dont consider getting a blizzard an awful year!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 we cant have near climo without one as long as we have nina stink on us...nina or neutral will only work if it comes durng or after a warm period...unless you get a once in a century storm like 1/25/00 Agree that we should never expect climo (without a fluke) going into to a neutral after nina or even a nina but we shouldn't expect nothing at all. That's more my point. These last 2 winters have been abysmal here. Disasters beyond even the most cautious weenie's dreams. DCA is suspect in the obs department. I might look into IAD-BWI over the last 60 years and see what it looks like in a nina or neutral after. Expecting 40-50% of climo would have been considered pretty bearish going into the last 2 winters but those calls (so far) are bullish. Weird. And like I said before, it's not like areas all around us didn't get some decent accum snow. We're just out of favor for whatever reason (or millions of reasons). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Agree that we should never expect climo (without a fluke) going into to a neutral after nina or even a nina but we shouldn't expect nothing at all. That's more my point. These last 2 winters have been abysmal here. Disasters beyond even the most cautious weenie's dreams. DCA is suspect in the obs department. I might look into IAD-BWI over the last 60 years and see what it looks like in a nina or neutral after. Expecting 40-50% of climo would have been considered pretty bearish going into the last 2 winters but those calls (so far) are bullish. Weird. And like I said before, it's not like areas all around us didn't get some decent accum snow. We're just out of favor for whatever reason (or millions of reasons). 10/11 was a disaster too, relatively speaking to areas to our north, south and east, with the only saving grace being an infinitesimal NINO hangover that enabled the psu storm I know it's not scientific, but you get my point that we were 2 degrees to the cold side of a storm that without it, would have made 10/11 no different than this year and last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 dont consider getting a blizzard an awful year!! I said northern New England. I'm talking about Vermont northern ny state northern New Hampshire I follow that area for ski purposes and the last two years have been a waste. I like tree skiing so I need natural snow and they have had almost no big snow events up there. Usually in a Nina they do very well with a train of storms going over the lakes then reforming near NYC and pounding upstate new eng. last 2 years everything gets sheared out so they are getting puddly 1-3" at a time then before they can build up any real snowpack it gets wiped out by a cutter that brings 50 and rain all the way to Quebec. Trust me I know climo up there from skiing and this has been a disaster for that area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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