stormtracker Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 it looks really bad dude [I mean, vs 0z and what we've gotten so far......it's all relative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The storm won't look like that in 7 days It won't look like a storm in 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 [ I mean, vs 0z and what we've gotten so far......it's all relative it is like a 0.25" of sheared out precip of questionable type....I've lost interest in this one....Hopefully we get something and if not that we get somethiing before March 10th....after that our chances of 2"+ event is really low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Oh, but lookie here at 384-h...a HECS right on cue!!! The Ji "guarantee" storm will be delayed but not denied! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Oh, but lookie here at 384-h...a HECS right on cue!!! The Ji "guarantee" storm will be delayed but not denied! Looks good indeed. Too bad it won't happen as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 it is like a 0.25" of sheared out precip of questionable type....I've lost interest in this one....Hopefully we get something and if not that we get somethiing before March 10th....after that our chances of 2"+ event is really low even before then our odds are really low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 yeah its in lala range.... will keep our eyes on it heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Good news it's not just here that everyone is cranky. The CWG commenters have turned mean recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Looks good indeed. Too bad it won't happen as is. Nah, of course it won't. But it sure is fun...and funny...to look at!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 even before then our odds are really low. I think the -PDO regime that started in earnest in 2007 ushered in a new climo reality.....that unless we can get in a warm (Nino/Neutral) regime, we are looking at single digit snow winters (and still may be single digits) unless we get that one fluke/saving storm....so this winter is really just following the template of 07-08, 08-09, 10-11, 11-12....we pretty much stand in the same spot as those 4 winters...i think moving forward that is teh best course of action uf we arent in a nino or nino hangover state....assume single digit snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Who could have known that we'd have two debacle winters in a row? We've got 2 weeks realistically. This forum is despondent. It's a funeral in here and rightfully so. Even the pep in winterwxluvr's step is greatly diminished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Who could have known that we'd have two debacle winters in a row? We've got 2 weeks realistically. This forum is despondent. It's a funeral in here and rightfully so. Even the pep in winterwxluvr's step is greatly diminished. I kind of knew...KA knew...I was just too deluded to accept that we couldnt muster a 6" storm in the midst of it all....we still have time but not much..1st week of march has actually been kind of fruitful for DC metro if not DCA as much....I'd give it 3 weeks for you......BTW...we were all having the same conversation in February 2009.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I think the -PDO regime that started in earnest in 2007 ushered in a new climo reality.....that unless we can get in a warm (Nino/Neutral) regime, we are looking at single digit snow winters (and still may be single digits) unless we get that one fluke/saving storm....so this winter is really just following the template of 07-08, 08-09, 10-11, 11-12....we pretty much stand in the same spot as those 4 winters...i think moving forward that is teh best course of action uf we arent in a nino or nino hangover state....assume single digit snow.... how long is the -pdo going to last? 30 years? that stuff is all kinda foreign to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Who could have known that we'd have two debacle winters in a row? We've got 2 weeks realistically. This forum is despondent. It's a funeral in here and rightfully so. Even the pep in winterwxluvr's step is greatly diminished. He and Bob Chill both are losing their eternal optimism. Personally, I'm now rooting for no more snow so we can set a combined 3 year record for snowfall futility then I'll at least be able to write a funny article about it since I started at CWG 3 years ago. I know my now rooting against snow until next year will make me a pariah but I'm now ready for fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 He and Bob Chill both are losing their eternal optimism. Personally, I'm now rooting for no more snow so we can set a combined 3 year record for snowfall futility then I'll at least be able to write a funny article about it since I started at CWG 3 years ago. I know my now rooting against snow until next year will make me a pariah but I'm now ready for fishing. I would be ready for fishing if I fished. But I like my spring bulbs to be up and running before long. This is just depressing. Can't count how many times I have said that this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 He and Bob Chill both are losing their eternal optimism. Personally, I'm now rooting for no more snow so we can set a combined 3 year record for snowfall futility then I'll at least be able to write a funny article about it since I started at CWG 3 years ago. I know my now rooting against snow until next year will make me a pariah but I'm now ready for fishing. I'm in snow purgatory. If it becomes high prob I'm all in. Otherwise, I'm taking a step back and not fretting it. I'm getting ready to re-spool some reels and prepare for fishing season too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 how long is the -pdo going to last? 30 years? that stuff is all kinda foreign to me. hard to say, but yes...sounds about right....the reason imo that we did so great from 57-70 in a -PDO regime was we had one nina the entire time and it was wedged between 2 ninos... that is the more important factor imo....as long as we have ninas and nina hangovers in this regime, our winters are going to be awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I can promise you now...unless we get a nino next winter our winter will suck again....no matter what the pundits, index gurus, etc say for the CONUS..winter will suck here....it will be the same old song and we can hope for a fluke or that one winter saver like 3/09, ....until we get in a Nino/neutral regime, winter will be terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I can promise you now...unless we get a nino next winter our winter will suck again....no matter what the pundits, index gurus, etc say for the CONUS..winter will suck here....it will be the same old song and we can hope for a fluke or that one winter saver like 3/09, ....until we get in a Nino/neutral regime, winter will be terrible I think we've come to accept a 10" DCA winter as being kind of alright, not completely exactly terrible, which shows how low our expectations are now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Catching up on this thread and the models from last night and today. Wow, they were more than discouraging, but I still think the models are having a hard time figuring out how to handle the block.. because it has been forever it seems since we have had one. The solutions from last night and today could be right or it could get worse, but I still think there is hope in that they are going to figure out the block 2 or 3 days out and everyone will be happy again. Thats my optimism for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I think we've come to accept a 10" DCA winter as being kind of alright, not completely exactly terrible, which shows how low our expectations are now. 10" would be amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 One of our problems is we keep tracking d10+ storms like there is any real chance they'll end up like shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 One of our problems is we keep tracking d10+ storms like there is any real chance they'll end up like shown. yeah, but it's so bad now that day 10 storms look like shiat come day 7 we don't even have to wait anywhere near the 10 days to find out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 One of our problems is we keep tracking d10+ storms like there is any real chance they'll end up like shown. If Boston does get their blizzard tomorrow morning, that's 2 blizzards popping up well inside 7-days on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 If Boston does get their blizzard tomorrow morning, that's 2 blizzards popping up well inside 7-days on the models. this storm looks really nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 If Boston does get their blizzard tomorrow morning, that's 2 blizzards popping up well inside 7-days on the models. That's the unique and intriguing part of what the models are doing right now. At range they always show us with a good solution and they always retract it. Meanwhile other regions that don't initially have anything showing, end up with a surprise good solution as we get close. It's the same routine over and over again. You would think it would be chaotic and random, but it isn't. It's the same story repeated ad infinitum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 this storm looks really nice gfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif All I can hope for now is a 3/69 style early March snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 this storm looks really nice gfs_namer_384_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif It's like one line of code in the program is "If time>240, then MA = snowstorm" and another "If time < 96, then decrease precip by 10% per 6 hr run cycle" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ronnie Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I wanted to post DT's discussion. It gives us some hope! Title: ABOUT FEB 22-- IGNORE THE 0Z SATURDAY MODELS This discussion will focus on the potential event for February 22 over the Middle Atlantic states and whether not the models from early Saturday morning have handled the situation correctly are not. As you will see in this discussion I believe most of the weather models have screw this up mostly because of the unusual weather pattern developing. I believe there is an ice storm coming for a good portion of VA NC and perhaps Maryland FEB 22. However the weather models early Saturday morning to the casual observer appear to be substantially different from what they have been showing on Thursday and Friday . This first image is the 0z SATURDAY GFS Model at 500 MB. (That's about half way up in the atmosphere and as pretty close to the Jetstream level) . This map is pretty self explanatory. We can see the large Upwepr Low over the Rockies which it probably bringing that area blizzard on the 20th of February. The system is trying to move out into the Plains but there is a problem. One of the big flaws in the GFS Model is that it OVER evelop features ... especially large Upper and surface Lows. In this case because the GFS model is probably over developing the huge upper Low over Maine and southeastern Canada... the Model ends up altering the entire pattern. The super intense low over southeastern Canada and the large LOW / trough over the Rockies cause the model to develop a very strong RIDGE -- the RED LINES -- over the eastern Plains and the Midwest. The 0z GFS actually extends the RIDGE into Southern Canada! Of course the system in the Rockies over Colorado is trying to come east the causes another piece of energy coming down from Alaska that is trying to shove the system over Colorado eastward. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/gfs_namer_132_500_vort_ht.gif In this next image the GFS model (162 hours) it tries to resolve this dilemma by lifting the large and strong low pressure area over Colorado north eastward into Minnesota... In an attempt to go over the top of the RIDGE! To be fair to the GFS ....it is not only the GFS model which does this sort of thing but all weather models when you have two large Upper Lows next to each other ALL models.. ALL ofmthem have problems resolving how to handle this sort of situation. As we will see the European model also is mishandling this as well. As I stated several times in the video on Wednesday and over the past week... One of the big rules in the weather business is that you cannot have two large upper low in close proximity to each other. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/gfs_namer_162_500_vort_ht.gif Here is the European model from early Saturday morning -- the 0z run ( which comes out 1-2am). The European model at 120 hours is pretty similar to what the GFS is showing. We can see the large powerful storm over the great basin ( NV / UT area). Then we can see the large Upper Low Maine and southeastern Canada. And just like the GFS Model.. A large gap or BULGE has developed between these two systems over the Plains andthe Midwest ( black squggly line) which again extends into South Central Canada. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/0zEC120HR.gifAt day6 The European model tries to resolve this dilemma the same way the GFS does.. Instead of trying to undercut the RIDGE... The European model attends to go over the top of the RIDGE which is a Meteorological impossibility. As we can see on this map AT DAY 6... the top of the Ridge extends almost into Western Canada... So it is not at all possible for this Low over NV to take a track from NV to COL to MT to Alaska http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/0ZEC144.gif Indeed by day 7 the European model has the low parked over Montana and North Dakota and the ridge extends into Hudson's bay Canada. It is possible that a piece of the LOW over Nevada Utah and Colorado may end up getting trapped over Montana but the main energy is going to undercut the RIDGE and not try and go over. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/0Z168EC.gif SUMMARY.. All the operational or regular models solutions -- the operational G FS the operational European -- from early Saturday morning screw this up big time. The European ensemble handle it much better as does the Canadian model. lets see what the 12z Models are doing ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I wanted to post DT's discussion. It gives us some hope! Title: ABOUT FEB 22-- IGNORE THE 0Z SATURDAY MODELS I don't see how what the current model projections show of the upper low decaying over the Upr Mdwest is wrong. The remnants then get sheared out by the 50/50. Unless we can get some redevelopment on the underside this is a light/mixed event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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