ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 talking about this winter. His pattern recognition and lr storm threat calls have been pretty good. Again I think he is a good met.....but he scattershots the lr pattern in verbage that is hard to argue for or against after verification time. I will say for this upcoming 21-22 event it is hard NOT to argue with his thoughts. Its a good pattern for our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Again I think he is a good met.....but he scattershots the lr pattern in verbage that is hard to argue for or against after verification time. I will say for this upcoming 21-22 event it is hard NOT to argue with his thoughts. Its a good pattern for our region. HM is as good as they come but a major advantage to LR is you can be extra vague and people mostly remember the one hit and not the 8 misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 HM is as good as they come but a major advantage to LR is you can be extra vague and people mostly remember the one hit and not the 8 misses. Exactly. I enjoy learning from him and like reading his posts. Im not trying to blast him.....but Ive patterned my beliefs that lr forecasting is kinda like fortune telling. However, many take it as gospel. I feel bad for saying what i said in my original post about hm, but i just dont like lr forecasting for the reasons you described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Hahahaha oh, Joe.... Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi Would not be surprised to see some kind of dramatic east coast superstorm before March 5 ( example Mar 1962, Dec 1992) given pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro looks unimpressive for Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro looks unimpressive for Friday. yes..sad looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What does it show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What does it show? Sheared out cold front. Little qpf or dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Wow horrible...a cartopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What does it show? maybe you shouldnt update your FB page every single run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Looks like sw va gets a big snow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Lol I made one update today on the feb 21-22 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Looks like sw va gets a big snow though Its juiced up similar to the gfs but gets sheared apart as the main energy is somewhere over iowa. We need some sort of redevelopment to stay in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Most disasterous model runs I've ever seen. Euro ended winter pretty much as did Gfs Hopefully an aberration Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 bring on spring enough of this crap !!! If you want snow it isnt happening here in md this winter. IMHO !!! I,m 65 been here my whole life, this year it isnt going to snow, and some years are like that.!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 At this point I think we need to come to the realization that looking for winter threats at a week plus is just stupid. I'm so sick of talk about patterns and likely storms and on and on and on. Not one model is capable of anything remotely reliable at long range. And since those are what most of these long range calls are based on, how are those calls for great patterns and storms anything other than hyped up WAG? It's a pointless, fruitless activity, and I'm kicking myself for even looking at the models at that range. They always show something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Looks like Cosgrove was right after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Looks like Cosgrove was right after all. what did he say, winter over!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 At this point I think we need to come to the realization that looking for winter threats at a week plus is just stupid. I'm so sick of talk about patterns and likely storms and on and on and on. Not one model is capable of anything remotely reliable at long range. And since those are what most of these long range calls are based on, how are those calls for great patterns and storms anything other than hyped up WAG? It's a pointless, fruitless activity, and I'm kicking myself for even looking at the models at that range. They always show something good. I don't understand why that storm isn't forced more southeastward bumping up against a fairly strong HP. , instead of what its depicted to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 what did he say, winter over!! He did. A couple of weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 At this point I think we need to come to the realization that looking for winter threats at a week plus is just stupid. I'm so sick of talk about patterns and likely storms and on and on and on. Not one model is capable of anything remotely reliable at long range. And since those are what most of these long range calls are based on, how are those calls for great patterns and storms anything other than hyped up WAG? It's a pointless, fruitless activity, and I'm kicking myself for even looking at the models at that range. They always show something good. Exactly. It is pointless. That has been obvious for many years, But we keep coming back. Although it can go the other way sometiimes. Pattern can look terrible and suddenly we are all talking about a snowstorm. Just not this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The 6z GFS has about the wimpiest 1040 high you'll ever see in Canada later in the week. It retreats in the face of a massive 1000mb LP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GFS gets some respectable precip in here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GFS gets some respectable precip in here it looks really bad dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 it looks really bad dude It's a thermal disaster. Now we have to full on root for the primary to track a bit further south, die in a perfect spot, transfer perfectly, and have temps crash perfectly. Yay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is that blob of precip (convection, I assume) to the southeast at around 150-h "stealing" the moisture? Or is it more from the whole thing becoming a sheared out mess and then the secondary forming? Or both, I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 i've lost interest in this threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Well, regardless of how this pans out in the end, it looks like it could be a real mess on Friday morning. Even with relatively light precip, if it's freezing rain/drizzle, the commute will be awful. It doesn't take much, just look at what we had a couple weeks ago with a minor icing event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It's a thermal disaster. Now we have to full on root for the primary to track a bit further south, die in a perfect spot, transfer perfectly, and have temps crash perfectly. Yay ...don't forget we also have to pick the exact correct lotto numbers, too. On second thought, that's more likely to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The storm won't look like that in 7 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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