mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS seems to be drying with that event like the euro I said it before and I'll say it again....CFS2 may have a justifiably bad rep, but its call for well below precip for the last month+ has been right on target unfortunately moral being, if it's bad for us, it will be right but if it's good...........you can fill in the blank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 HM updated on the 21-22 February potential. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39391-possible-221-22-and-beyond-storm-analog/?p=2128900 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Matt loves that storm. Not a bad thought process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Matt loves that storm. Not a bad thought process. yeah...was just going to link that...why not?...we whip out that analog every time a thump is possible....this time it actually works... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 HM updated on the 21-22 February potential. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39391-possible-221-22-and-beyond-storm-analog/?p=2128900 nice post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 HM updated on the 21-22 February potential. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39391-possible-221-22-and-beyond-storm-analog/?p=2128900 HM will forget more than I will ever know in meteorology, but his long-range stuff seems more like shot-in-the-dark and "hope I'm right" guesses lately...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 HM will forget more than I will ever know in meteorology, but his long-range stuff seems more like shot-in-the-dark and "hope I'm right" guesses lately...... He's been nailing pretty much everything lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 yeah...was just going to link that...why not?...we whip out that analog every time a thump is possible....this time it actually works... over/under on .25" liquid when all said and done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 over/under on .25" liquid when all said and done? Do I even need to say it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 He's been nailing pretty much everything lately. He broadbrushed the blizzard in BOS from 2 weeks out. I could do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 over/under on .25" liquid when all said and done? that's the problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 He broadbrushed the blizzard in BOS from 2 weeks out. I could do that. he said against all guidance and conventional wisdom over a week out that it wouldn't be a standard lakes cutter....and he was right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 CAD even stronger on 00z GFS @ 150. Looks juiced so far too. I think it will be a good run. EDIT: Nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Well 150-159 looked good... then the H magically vanished and was a 1028 this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 He broadbrushed the blizzard in BOS from 2 weeks out. I could do that. Nope you obviously haven't been reading his posts fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 .25 over/under is a coin flip. Sheesh. Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 .25 over/under is a coin flip. Sheesh. Here we go 1 inch of snow to lil ice to light rain to dryslot this run as the low transfers... how nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GFS looks pretty lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is it really time to start thinking about a miller b? We have to pray the block pushes the primary as far south as possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I think the problem with this run, is the storm is initially so strong in the southern plains that it begins to weaken as it heads into the midwest and the precipitation sort of fizzles out as it heads east...Thats probably not the greatest recipe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 he said against all guidance and conventional wisdom over a week out that it wouldn't be a standard lakes cutter....and he was right The BOS was never going to be a cutter. It was stj OTS or a phase w/ a NJ system rolling thru MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nope you obviously haven't been reading his posts fully. All winter? Or recently? We must be talking 2 diff things. Specifics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is it really time to start thinking about a miller b? We have to pray the block pushes the primary as far south as possible? It promptly goes straight out to sea... so I dunno what we want to pray for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The BOS was never going to be a cutter. It was stj OTS or a phase w/ a NJ system rolling thru MI i thought that was a diff storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The BOS was never going to be a cutter. It was stj OTS or a phase w/ a NJ system rolling thru MI the models were depicting a standard monolithic lakes cutter a week out...the storm ended up being very different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It promptly goes straight out to sea... so I dunno what we want to pray for Well, it's not going down like this but it is a whole extra layer of uh oh. I've been rooting for a cutter for days and I can't even get that. You know you're in bad shape when you root for a cutter and lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 the models were depicting a standard monolithic lakes cutter a week out...the storm ended up being very different Kinda like what the 22nd is doing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 the models were depicting a standard monolithic lakes cutter a week out...the storm ended up being very different No....youre wrong. It had the massive and powerful northern vort in the lakes, seperate from any southern stream. The SJ really came into play on the models around the 4-5 of Feb. Thats when the phase became a legit option. I was in BOS the weekend of the 2-4 and it was discussed on the NE forum that the northern vort might give them a couple of inches later that week. There was never a cutter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Oh wow, i like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 All winter? Or recently? We must be talking 2 diff things. Specifics? talking about this winter. His pattern recognition and lr storm threat calls have been pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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