mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It was a golden age and got me into meteorology though one huge year like 1995-1996 or 2009-2010 really are almost worth the wait. no they're not....at least not any more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 euro ens mean gives like 1-3 for first event and less for second Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 pattern is pretty decent tho like the op except the se ridge is more prominent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 pattern is pretty decent tho like the op except the se ridge is more prominent 1-3 would be blizzard by this years standards. I can't decide whether to keep rooting for the strong to be broken or to keep breaking the record until next year. Then I can write a funny article about me jinxing snow in the area since joining CWG. I do think the pattern looks pretty good through the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 1-3 would be blizzard by this years standards. I can't decide whether to keep rooting for the strong to be broken or to keep breaking the record until next year. Then I can write a funny article about me jinxing snow in the area since joining CWG. I do think the pattern looks pretty good through the end of the month. If we can't do it in the next 2 weeks then we really don't deserve it. I've seen every possible signal this year to get *something* with the exception of a -nao. We've had a +pna off and on for weeks, -ao door to door with a couple short breaks, strat warming, mjo through the promised land, decent pac, even a touch of the elusive split flow....and after all that...nuttin. I know many of the bigger lw features are important but it's pretty clear in a nina hangover type pattern, no -nao = no go. I've mentioned a few times over the last week or so (among others) that the greatly missed -nao keeps popping up in lr models. Now we're getting close to mid range and it still keeps popping up. Plus we have an active pattern. I don't need a perfect anything. Front thump to snizzle to frizzle to glop on the ground is fine if we can just get out of cartopperville even for just a few measly hours. I've been quiet with lr stuff (by my standards. lol) last couple days and I plan on staying that way for a bit. I'm burned on getting burnt. Probably a good thing. It won't surprise me at all if the 22nd or next one become high prob events. But until they do, I just going to flood the banter thread with worthless drivel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 euro ens mean gives like 1-3 for first event and less for second Why less for the 2nd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I feel like I'm back in stat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Why less for the 2nd? Warmer and less precip than op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 lol- gfs is going miller b option. good thing we break the streak before we get slotted. Over a .50 dc burbs and south with surface and 850's below freezing. I'm sure some of that is sleet. MN can take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Storm is farther east on the GFS with redevelopment in NC? Obvious fake precip max down there, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 And after the transfer happens, secondary moves nearly due east quietly out to sea. Yea, that's gonna happen. Front end streak breaker firmly on the table....for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 lol- gfs is going miller b option. good thing we break the streak before we get slotted. Over a .50 dc burbs and south with surface and 850's below freezing. I'm sure some of that is sleet. MN can take over. Looked to me like 1-3 for DC based on the eyewall maps, did I miss something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 And after the transfer happens, secondary moves nearly due east quietly out to sea. Yea, that's gonna happen. Front end streak breaker firmly on the table....for now. If streaks of any kind are to be broken, next week is probably the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 And after the transfer happens, secondary moves nearly due east quietly out to sea. Yea, that's gonna happen. Front end streak breaker firmly on the table....for now. I lol'd at that when I saw it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looked to me like 1-3 for DC based on the eyewall maps, did I miss something? You probably didn't. I can't really tell when the changeover happens. Surface and 850's below through hr 162. .5 line right at dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You probably didn't. I can't really tell when the changeover happens. Surface and 850's below through hr 162. .5 line right at dc. next week's system is interesting. pretty good high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Some incredible blocking is showing up.... Anything that tries to cut hard in that pattern will get sheared out .. or forced south. Seems like the fist one in the line up is going the sheared out rout. Let's see what the second does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You probably didn't. I can't really tell when the changeover happens. Surface and 850's below through hr 162. .5 line right at dc. Certainly the 1st .25 look like snow, then we need to look at the soundings on Twister, but then, the nest run will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The pattern on the GFS and Euro after the Friday event look really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Certainly the 1st .25 look like snow, then we need to look at the soundings on Twister, but then, the nest run will be different. And we shouldn't (at least I shouldn't) go through the excersize. Too much lead and I'm just peek and move on through the weekend. Just like Inudaw just said. First run to show a miller b and the blocking was never not there. This could end up a scattered mess in due time. I'd much prefer to just simply get a thump over cold before it's pushed out of the way then start having to count on the beloved primary/secondary thing. Getting shafted twice in one storm is kinda fitting though. Maybe it goes below us! hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Some incredible blocking is showing up.... Anything that tries to cut hard in that pattern will get sheared out .. or forced south. Seems like the fist one in the line up is going the sheared out rout. Let's see what the second does. yea i'd rather it go the forced south route. should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looked to me like 1-3 for DC based on the eyewall maps, did I miss something? yes...an extra inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 My snow map is rich. 4-8(probably 4) southwest of DC. Nothing up the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS seems to be drying with that event like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If too much blocking destroys this one I'll be at a loss for words. I mean seriously. Maybe severe weenieism is better afterall. Start preparing now Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 My snow map is rich. 4-8(probably 4) southwest of DC. Nothing up the Potomac. what..im seeing .43 snow for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If too much blocking destroys this one I'll be at a loss for words. I mean seriously. Maybe severe weenieism is better afterall. Start preparing now Ian. we need a -pna, -nao,+ao, +pdo,-Epo, +wpo,mjo,-soi and well be alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 what..im seeing .43 snow for DCA yeah it's looked kinda screwy the last two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 we need a -pna, -nao,+ao, +pdo,-Epo, +wpo,mjo,-soi and well be alright But if you add that all together it still = ma(pos) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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