87storms Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You probably didn't. I can't really tell when the changeover happens. Surface and 850's below through hr 162. .5 line right at dc. next week's system is interesting. pretty good high to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Some incredible blocking is showing up.... Anything that tries to cut hard in that pattern will get sheared out .. or forced south. Seems like the fist one in the line up is going the sheared out rout. Let's see what the second does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You probably didn't. I can't really tell when the changeover happens. Surface and 850's below through hr 162. .5 line right at dc. Certainly the 1st .25 look like snow, then we need to look at the soundings on Twister, but then, the nest run will be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The pattern on the GFS and Euro after the Friday event look really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Certainly the 1st .25 look like snow, then we need to look at the soundings on Twister, but then, the nest run will be different. And we shouldn't (at least I shouldn't) go through the excersize. Too much lead and I'm just peek and move on through the weekend. Just like Inudaw just said. First run to show a miller b and the blocking was never not there. This could end up a scattered mess in due time. I'd much prefer to just simply get a thump over cold before it's pushed out of the way then start having to count on the beloved primary/secondary thing. Getting shafted twice in one storm is kinda fitting though. Maybe it goes below us! hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Some incredible blocking is showing up.... Anything that tries to cut hard in that pattern will get sheared out .. or forced south. Seems like the fist one in the line up is going the sheared out rout. Let's see what the second does. yea i'd rather it go the forced south route. should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looked to me like 1-3 for DC based on the eyewall maps, did I miss something? yes...an extra inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 My snow map is rich. 4-8(probably 4) southwest of DC. Nothing up the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS seems to be drying with that event like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If too much blocking destroys this one I'll be at a loss for words. I mean seriously. Maybe severe weenieism is better afterall. Start preparing now Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 My snow map is rich. 4-8(probably 4) southwest of DC. Nothing up the Potomac. what..im seeing .43 snow for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If too much blocking destroys this one I'll be at a loss for words. I mean seriously. Maybe severe weenieism is better afterall. Start preparing now Ian. we need a -pna, -nao,+ao, +pdo,-Epo, +wpo,mjo,-soi and well be alright Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 what..im seeing .43 snow for DCA yeah it's looked kinda screwy the last two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 we need a -pna, -nao,+ao, +pdo,-Epo, +wpo,mjo,-soi and well be alright But if you add that all together it still = ma(pos) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS seems to be drying with that event like the euro I said it before and I'll say it again....CFS2 may have a justifiably bad rep, but its call for well below precip for the last month+ has been right on target unfortunately moral being, if it's bad for us, it will be right but if it's good...........you can fill in the blank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 HM updated on the 21-22 February potential. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39391-possible-221-22-and-beyond-storm-analog/?p=2128900 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Matt loves that storm. Not a bad thought process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 HM updated on the 21-22 February potential. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39391-possible-221-22-and-beyond-storm-analog/?p=2128900 HM will forget more than I will ever know in meteorology, but his long-range stuff seems more like shot-in-the-dark and "hope I'm right" guesses lately...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 HM will forget more than I will ever know in meteorology, but his long-range stuff seems more like shot-in-the-dark and "hope I'm right" guesses lately...... He's been nailing pretty much everything lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 yeah...was just going to link that...why not?...we whip out that analog every time a thump is possible....this time it actually works... over/under on .25" liquid when all said and done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 over/under on .25" liquid when all said and done? Do I even need to say it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 He's been nailing pretty much everything lately. He broadbrushed the blizzard in BOS from 2 weeks out. I could do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 CAD even stronger on 00z GFS @ 150. Looks juiced so far too. I think it will be a good run. EDIT: Nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Well 150-159 looked good... then the H magically vanished and was a 1028 this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 He broadbrushed the blizzard in BOS from 2 weeks out. I could do that. Nope you obviously haven't been reading his posts fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 .25 over/under is a coin flip. Sheesh. Here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 .25 over/under is a coin flip. Sheesh. Here we go 1 inch of snow to lil ice to light rain to dryslot this run as the low transfers... how nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GFS looks pretty lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is it really time to start thinking about a miller b? We have to pray the block pushes the primary as far south as possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I think the problem with this run, is the storm is initially so strong in the southern plains that it begins to weaken as it heads into the midwest and the precipitation sort of fizzles out as it heads east...Thats probably not the greatest recipe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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