gymengineer Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This storm is going to change a lot. Even the large scale features. It could take on an entirely different look I know we're desperate, but now we've resorted to analyzing soundings for a storm a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I know we're desperate, but now we've resorted to analyzing soundings for a storm a week out. We have nothing else to talk about. Unless tomorrow's coastal does a magic trick. It does fringe us which I guess is something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 We have nothing else to talk about. Unless tomorrow's coastal does a magic trick. It does fringe us which I guess is something. Oh I know... just agreeing that the entire nature of the storm might be different (e.g. we can't even say for sure there will be a storm a week from now), so there's no more encouragement or discouragement gained by looking at such specific details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 euro looks much warmer than last night so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 eh, guess it doesn't matter.. cad still wins when precip arrives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 euro looks much warmer than last night so far euro temps look pretty good...i just worry about another 0.10 qpf event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 eh, guess it doesn't matter.. cad still wins when precip arrives it looks delayed right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 it looks delayed right? slightly...it is pretty wimpy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 euro temps look pretty good...i just worry about another 0.10 qpf event it was quite a bit warmer at 850 in the leadup but yeah precip is pretty sucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 it's a glorified front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 s va went from 4-8 on snow maps to 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I am more discouraged that as we head towards the event, the models are picking up the CAD signature but are also showing a trend of shearing the system into a pathetic mess. A storm bowling to our NW into a -NAO this time of year I do not buy really, the southern stream being sheared out and suppressed I do, fits the pattern too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 it's a glorified front Geez...we can't precip from that storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 it's a glorified front We finally get a good block and now it is killing our storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 warm wet, cold dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 warm wet, cold dry Thank you Phineas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Geez...we can't precip from that storm? <.10 Sheared out POS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 <.10 Sheared out POS looks like .25"+ to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Precip issues again? The look of the GFS and its ensembles would say that's not the way its going to go down. Be interesting to see what the Euro ens. says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 So, yesterday at 12z the Euro shows the 500 low bowling through the nothern tier and exiting off of New England. Today at 12z it hits a brick wall at Omaha and retrogrades with the help of another undercutting trough. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Geez...we can't precip from that storm? in general the northern branch has been screaming along west to east, not allowing any phasing with the southern branch. The southern branch has been too weak to offer any resistance when there is cold in place and any type of block or even just influence from the northern jet. So when there is cold in place and the northern jet is near the stj moisture systems just get squashed to our south or sheared apart. When the northern jet retreats then and only then can the pathetic southern branch systems move north and offer rain. With many of them this year there was really no snow sheild with the storm at all...just a big rain event. Even northern New England is suffering for the ski areas, they cant buy a big snowstorm, with the exceptions of Nemo nothing amplifies into the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Whichever model between the Euro and GFS shows no snow...that one will be king for that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 at least the 2/24 storm gives us 12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 at least the 2/24 storm gives us 12" you all in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 you all in? never...lol;..not even 6 hours away...not this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 never...lol;..not even 6 hours away...not this winter would be a great storm.. a foot for almost everyone in the forum then a whiff for sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 would be a great storm.. a foot for almost everyone in the forum then a whiff for sne. The period after one of these periods is looking good. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You know, if you believe in the concept of an average, then you believe that every time we get the shaft, the odds go up that the next one we get the bonus. If not, then there's no such thing as an average. I don't feel great about the upcoming couple of weeks, but I do think there's a shot at some snow. Opportunity and the fact that this can't last forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 looks like .25"+ to me Correct. We are in the .25 contour w/ .50 out in the BR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Most of the winter we have had such a crap pattern that even in the long range there was nothing to track. Now we are at least back to a good enough pattern that we have our 240 hour fantasy storms to look at again. They all turn to crap once they move inside 7 days but oh well... the pattern isnt that hostile so I could see one of these waves producing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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