mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think part of the problem on this run is that the low seems to slow down allowing warmer air to filter up vs. barreling right into the cold dome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 500 thickness is overrated, IMO, as a useful diagnostic for RA vs. SN. Anybody have the full sounding info? Agree. Full soundings aren't out yet on twisterdata (thru 90 right now), but you can step through the critical levels on instantweathermaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think part of the problem on this run is that the low seems to slow down allowing warmer air to filter up vs. barreling right into the cold dome Yeah, sort of looks like that, and what I saw with the 500 low bodily pushing everything out of the way as it moves due north. Not trying to parse things too much here...just what the model looks like this time around verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 when it is at 543 to 547 in this part of the country it's usually indicative of something other than snow Mitch, I've seen it snow here at 549 thickness. I don't put much stock on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0.75"+ liquid with temps below freezing here. Too early to look at soundings, but would be a major winter storm no matter what precip-type falls if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Agree. Full soundings aren't out yet on twisterdata (thru 90 right now), but you can step through the critical levels on instantweathermaps. Good stuff. Hadn't seen that webpage before. Just about as good as a full sounding with all the levels. Based on that, looks like ~4-6 hours of snow, then a couple hours of pingers, a little freezing rain and ending as drizzle. Not a bad way to go for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 500 thicknesses tend to matter more early and late in the season. Then again, 547 isn't good... we can still do ok with 543 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Good stuff. Hadn't seen that webpage before. Just about as good as a full sounding with all the levels. Based on that, looks like ~4-6 hours of snow, then a couple hours of pingers, a little freezing rain and ending as drizzle. Not a bad way to go for us. We seem to be consistently getting various solutions of just that from various globals. IDC how it happens. It can be a dumptruck full of snow having an accident @ DCA obs station. Just 2" please. Western VA could be in for some trouble. Big ice signal for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Raleigh's map has 4-6" or so for the entire area with 8"+ for the Blue Ridge area. yeah it seems odd.. it's not that much worse than 0z. the maps i have are usually better than others tho from what i've seen. i don't really buy it in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Mitch, I've seen it snow here at 549 thickness. I don't put much stock on it. well, every time it goes above 542 on the models, it always turns to something else hey, I agree that we need soundings, it's just that there is certainly a warm layer somewhere in the column when I see those thicknesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 We seem to be consistently getting various solutions of just that from various globals. IDC how it happens. It can be a dumptruck full of snow having an accident @ DCA obs station. Just 2" please. Western VA could be in for some trouble. Big ice signal for days. i doubt anyone is getting a big ice storm in mid-feb with heavy rates even at night. i'd put that near the bottom of my worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Seems the gfs wanted to repeat the whole repeat the same pattern through out the 384 hours. Was like watching the same storm repeat a similar process from day 5 to end of the run. *Shrugs* More than likely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0.75"+ liquid with temps below freezing here. Too early to look at soundings, but would be a major winter storm no matter what precip-type falls if the GFS is right. That's the way to look at it. Significant winter event. But .............. way too far in the future to be wracking our brains over specifics. Can't wait, for a change, to see what the Euro says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 i doubt anyone is getting a big ice storm in mid-feb with heavy rates even at night. i'd put that near the bottom of my worries. I didn't mean big ice storm but it definitely sounded that way. I meant big signal for some ice. And I'm only worried about my yard so we're good there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Seems the gfs wanted to repeat the whole repeat the same pattern through out the 384 hours. Was like watching the same storm repeat a similar process from day 5 to end of the run. *Shrugs* More than likely wrong. You aren't kidding. Three different lows that cut through Missouri from next Friday's storm to the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 i doubt anyone is getting a big ice storm in mid-feb with heavy rates even at night. i'd put that near the bottom of my worries. IDK, if you get good low level cold, which we can in Feb, and good CAD, which we can, freezing rain could become a big problem under the right conditions. It just takes so little of that to be big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 well, every time it goes above 542 on the models, it always turns to something else hey, I agree that we need soundings, it's just that there is certainly a warm layer somewhere in the column when I see those thicknesses Based on the webpage MN pointed me too, the warm layer comes in at 700-800mb first and then progressively warms up the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 IDK, if you get good low level cold, which we can in Feb, and good CAD, which we can, freezing rain could become a big problem under the right conditions. It just takes so little of that to be big trouble. seriously doubt it. we have trouble with big ice even during our climo lowest sun angle and coldest temps. not to mention it's not going to be severely cold before the storm. usually you want a drawn out light/mod qpf event with temps well below freezing. a thump of .5-.75" qpf over a few hours would not all accrete and even then you're talking trees etc mainly. some sort of sleety mixture is probably a bigger problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Sorry, more banter than storm discussion, but check out this sounding at 120 for just east of Lake Winnipeg. This is our cold source region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This storm is going to change a lot. Even the large scale features. It could take on an entirely different look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 well, every time it goes above 542 on the models, it always turns to something else hey, I agree that we need soundings, it's just that there is certainly a warm layer somewhere in the column when I see those thicknesses The peril with thicknesses is that it is a column derived calculation, so it doesn't tell you where the "warmth" may be. In this case, the upper levels will be warmer than maybe a standard atmosphere 5400m thickness, but since those levels will still be below freezing, it doesn't hurt us for p-type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The peril with thicknesses is that it is a column derived calculation, so it doesn't tell you where the "warmth" may be. In this case, the upper levels will be warmer than maybe a standard atmosphere 5400m thickness, but since those levels will still be below freezing, it doesn't hurt us for p-type. OK, makes sense do we have the soundings yet for 168-180 hrs? I'll be interested to see what's going on (I know it's a week away, I'm just curious) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 OK, makes sense do we have the soundings yet for 168-180 hrs? I'll be interested to see what's going on (I know it's a week away, I'm just curious) DCA goes from snow to sleet between 165 and 168.At 165 DCA is ripping snow and 27.7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 OK, makes sense do we have the soundings yet for 168-180 hrs? I'll be interested to see what's going on (I know it's a week away, I'm just curious) Sounding before the bulk of the precip 09z Snow sounding 12z Sleet sounding 15z is similar to 12z, and it is basically an above freezing sounding by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 seriously doubt it. we have trouble with big ice even during our climo lowest sun angle and coldest temps. not to mention it's not going to be severely cold before the storm. usually you want a drawn out light/mod qpf event with temps well below freezing. a thump of .5-.75" qpf over a few hours would not all accrete and even then you're talking trees etc mainly. some sort of sleety mixture is probably a bigger problem. Oh I didn't mean to sound alarmist about it. But if we had temps in the 26-28 range, with rain falling, we'd get ice accumulation in a hurry. I wasn't really thinking our area, especially yours, but the Roanoke, Lynchburg, Lexington triangle would be a good candidate for that. I know Kentucky is a different animal from this side of the mountains, but they had an absolutely crippling ice storm in the 90's during February. I can't remember the year, but my dad lives in Louisville so I guess that's why that one stuck in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Sounding before the bulk of the precip 162.gif 09z Snow sounding 09z 165.gif 12z Sleet sounding 12z 168.gif 15z is similar to 12z, and it is basically an above freezing sounding by 18z. thanks which means the 543 at 162 was OK for snow once the precip made it in a cooled the atmosphere, but the 547 at 168 hrs. was definitely sleet with the warm layer as suspected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow...saturated up to 180-200mb on those soundings. Don't see that with every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GEFS quite similar to the Op in storm strength and tracks (GEFS a smidge weaker and a bit further east). I'd ignore the GEFS depiction of the 850 0C line, because it's not going to pick up CAD well at all. That said, you can see from the kinks in the isotherms, that even the GEFS is "seeing" the CAD, but doesn't resolve it well and erodes it (likely) far too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 When is the last time we got a big ice storm >0.25"? I don't think we get those around here in our area... I know its more likely toward I-81. As long as we can stay wintry, it would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 When is the last time we got a big ice storm >0.25"? I don't think we get those around here in our area... I know its more likely toward I-81. As long as we can stay wintry, it would be nice For your immediate area? Probably 1/99. Just west of you got >.25" ice during the Super Tuesday storm in 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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