February 2013 mid-long range disco thread Part 2

[Ji]

it's a glorified front

Geez...we can't precip from that storm?

[ravensrule]

it's a glorified front

We finally get a good block and now it is killing our storm.

[psuhoffman]

warm wet, cold dry

[ravensrule]

warm wet, cold dry

Thank you Phineas.

[ACFD FIREMAN]

Geez...we can't precip from that storm?

<.10    Sheared out POS

[Ian]

<.10    Sheared out POS

 

looks like .25"+ to me

[WinterWxLuvr]

Precip issues again?  The look of the GFS and its ensembles would say that's not the way its going to go down.  Be interesting to see what the Euro ens. says.

[MN Transplant]

So, yesterday at 12z the Euro shows the 500 low bowling through the nothern tier and exiting off of New England.  Today at 12z it hits a brick wall at Omaha and retrogrades with the help of another undercutting trough.  Ugh.

[psuhoffman]

Geez...we can't precip from that storm?

in general the northern branch has been screaming along west to east, not allowing any phasing with the southern branch.  The southern branch has been too weak to offer any resistance when there is cold in place and any type of block or even just influence from the northern jet.  So when there is cold in place and the northern jet is near the stj moisture systems just get squashed to our south or sheared apart.  When the northern jet retreats then and only then can the pathetic southern branch systems move north and offer rain.  With many of them this year there was really no snow sheild with the storm at all...just a big rain event.  Even northern New England is suffering for the ski areas, they cant buy a big snowstorm, with the exceptions of Nemo nothing amplifies into the east. 

[North Balti Zen]

Whichever model between the Euro and GFS shows no snow...that one will be king for that event.

[Ian]

at least the 2/24 storm gives us 12"

you all in?

[Ian]

never...lol;..not even 6 hours away...not this winter

would be a great storm.. a foot for almost everyone in the forum then a whiff for sne.

[MDstorm]

would be a great storm.. a foot for almost everyone in the forum then a whiff for sne.

The period after one of these periods is looking good.

 

MDstorm

[WinterWxLuvr]

You know, if you believe in the concept of an average, then you believe that every time we get the shaft, the odds go up that the next one we get the bonus.  If not, then there's no such thing as an average.  I don't feel great about the upcoming couple of weeks, but I do think there's a shot at some snow.  Opportunity and the fact that this can't last forever.

[ACFD FIREMAN]

looks like .25"+ to me

Correct. We are in the .25 contour w/ .50 out in the BR.

[psuhoffman]

Most of the winter we have had such a crap pattern that even in the long range there was nothing to track.  Now we are at least back to a good enough pattern that we have our 240 hour fantasy storms to look at again.  They all turn to crap once they move inside  7 days but oh well... the pattern isnt that hostile so I could see one of these waves producing. 

[psuhoffman]

we haven't gotten a big storm/complex with any frozen component since 12/26....that is what many of us want....i don't care if I mix or changeover...I want a medium to high QPF event

I agree... but it's not just us.  There have been very few of those anywhere.  Nemo was the exception.  The waves coming across the CONUS this winter have generally been pathetic. 

[Subtropics]

You know, if you believe in the concept of an average, then you believe that every time we get the shaft, the odds go up that the next one we get the bonus.  If not, then there's no such thing as an average.  I don't feel great about the upcoming couple of weeks, but I do think there's a shot at some snow.  Opportunity and the fact that this can't last forever.

 Dude that isn't how averages work. Just because a flipped coin is heads 9 times in a row doesn't mean it is more likely to be tails the 10th time. The 10th flip is still 50/50 equal chances. The previous storm is irrelevant. The whole "we are due" is scientifically flawed argument. 

[CoastalWx]

Well you'll finally get a good block so while the temps may be borderline...this may be the best chance DC will have..the next 2 weeks or so.

[Ian]

Well you'll finally get a good block so while the temps may be borderline...this may be the best chance DC will have..the next 2 weeks or so.

yeah it's about to start getting harder and harder to say "hey, in 10 days we might do well"

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

 Dude that isn't how averages work. Just because a flipped coin is heads 9 times in a row doesn't mean it is more likely to be tails the 10th time. The 10th flip is still 50/50 equal chances. The previous storm is irrelevant. The whole "we are due" is scientifically flawed argument. 

Agree.  As is the whole "we're paying for 2009-10!!" argument.

[usedtobe]

Hopefully, the Euro is onto something with the strength of the block as it does show a really nice pattern for the last week of Feb at leat based on day 10.  Even D+11 superens mean is showing blocking across greenland with low heights to the south. It's not a bad pattern though it sill has some sense of above normal height right along the east coast. 

[Bob Chill]

Dude that isn't how averages work. Just because a flipped coin is heads 9 times in a row doesn't mean it is more likely to be tails the 10th time. The 10th flip is still 50/50 equal chances. The previous storm is irrelevant. The whole "we are due" is scientifically flawed argument.

Yea but if you flip it 2,000 times in July, not one single time will it land in snow. But it's already landed in snow within the last 2 days. Open the window to let the weenie smoke out while you grind on those odds

[WinterWxLuvr]

 Dude that isn't how averages work. Just because a flipped coin is heads 9 times in a row doesn't mean it is more likely to be tails the 10th time. The 10th flip is still 50/50 equal chances. The previous storm is irrelevant. The whole "we are due" is scientifically flawed argument. 

 

 I'm the one with the math degree.  Do you have one?  Until you do don't tell me how the math works.  I'm fully aware of probability.  

 

To get an average of any number, say 15 inches of snow over a ten year period means that you have to have 150 inches of snow.  If you believe that, DC for example, will continue to see an average of 15 inches of snow in any finite period of time, then you have to believe that sometime during that, 10 years for example, 150 inches of snow will fall.  The longer you go without it, the more likely you are to see it............if you believe in the average.  If you believe the 15 inches is a flawed average, then no, or yes I guess, no event is any more likely to produce snow than the previous.

 

We are running a deficit.  We will fill the gap at some point.  Just a matter of time.  BTW, don't respond to my posts.

[vinylfreak89]

 I'm the one with the math degree.  Do you have one?  Until you do don't tell me how the math works.  I'm fully aware of probability.  

 

To get an average of any number, say 15 inches of snow over a ten year period means that you have to have 150 inches of snow.  If you believe that, DC for example, will continue to see an average of 15 inches of snow in any finite period of time, then you have to believe that sometime during that, 10 years for example, 150 inches of snow will fall.  The longer you go without it, the more likely you are to see it............if you believe in the average.  If you believe the 15 inches is a flawed average, then no, or yes I guess, no event is any more likely to produce snow than the previous.

 

We are running a deficit.  We will fill the gap at some point.  Just a matter of time.  BTW, don't respond to my posts.

 

or the other solution is the longterm average changes....

[vinylfreak89]

 

 

can we lock this in?

[aldie 22]

or the other solution is the longterm average changes....

Lol midlo....you got quote ninja'd

[usedtobe]

The coin flip analogy is not a good one as each coin flip is independent of the one before it.   In terms of snowfall you need to look at the frequency that good year (big snow year) occur versus crappy ones.  on average we have 3 or 4 crappy years for every good one. Since 1987 we've had about 6 crappy years for every good year but our good years have been huge.  That could be a statistical anomaly or could be related to a climate change for some reason.  Most years we don't get close to average.   Now having two years back to back as bad as these two years is unusual unless we luck out before the end of the year.  Anyway, those are my half baked thoughts on the subject. 

[HighStakes]

 I'm the one with the math degree.  Do you have one?  Until you do don't tell me how the math works.  I'm fully aware of probability.  

 

To get an average of any number, say 15 inches of snow over a ten year period means that you have to have 150 inches of snow.  If you believe that, DC for example, will continue to see an average of 15 inches of snow in any finite period of time, then you have to believe that sometime during that, 10 years for example, 150 inches of snow will fall.  The longer you go without it, the more likely you are to see it............if you believe in the average.  If you believe the 15 inches is a flawed average, then no, or yes I guess, no event is any more likely to produce snow than the previous.

 

We are running a deficit.  We will fill the gap at some point.  Just a matter of time.  BTW, don't res/pond to my posts.

We will fill the defecit, it will probaly occur the way it's been trending since about the 86/87 winter season. One big snow season every 7 years or so. It's definitely a frustating trend and for snow lovers it creates a helpless feeling to have so many pathetic snow season's sandwiched in between good one's. At some point the cycle will end and hopefully we will go back to a more evenly spread distribution of snowfall. Recently it's been too many nina's and their killing us. NJ and NY get bailed out simply because of their location which allows them to cash in on the late developing coastals where one good storm salvages their winter as far as reaching their averages.

[WinterWxLuvr]

or the other solution is the longterm average changes....

 

Yep, which means you don't believe in the current average.  Myself, I believe the average will hold up, which in turn means I believe we will close the gap.

 

Some things like probability do have laws that govern them.  Geometry is the same.  A simple example in Geometry is the SAS postulate for proving triangles congruent.  We can't prove SAS is a theorem that works, but intuitively we know that it does.  Same with the "law of averages".  We will either get the necessary snow, or the average is going to break down.