Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I kind of agree with Ian that the current GFS and Euro looks are about as good as we can expect. Of course if it dry slots quick enough you can always get a few inches of snow and then go to drizzle. Sometimes dryslots are a friend. If precip shuts off before the thermals go to crap them it's totally fine. Couple inches and drizzle is better than 4" and a half inch of rain. At least in my opinion. Hopefully the setup holds serve through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I kind of agree with Ian that the current GFS and Euro looks are about as good as we can expect. Of course if it dry slots quick enough you can always get a few inches of snow and then go to drizzle. With a 20 sec glance here and there, the Euro and its ens look great for this. Of course, all I'm seeing are the 24hr panels on Allens site. 6z GFS looked pretty spiffy too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Sometimes dryslots are a friend. If precip shuts off before the thermals go to crap them it's totally fine. Couple inches and drizzle is better than 4" and a half inch of rain. At least in my opinion. Hopefully the setup holds serve through the weekend. Yeah, and sometimes that dry slot drizzle ends up being freezing drizzle for a while. That's what happened here at Christmas and was a big reason that we had snow cover from that storm for the next 16 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 With a 20 sec glance here and there, the Euro and its ens look great for this. Of course, all I'm seeing are the 24hr panels on Allens site. 6z GFS looked pretty spiffy too. 0z euro ens look similar overall to the op. Same cad and decent precip. Event on the heels looks ok too. precip doesn't really push N but temps are good and the south is plenty wet. 10 day threats are as reliable as meth heads so not much to invest other than there might be another chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS is close. Gets some light snow into DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 next weekend looking better STRONG CAD signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, the Fri next week thing is looking pretty sick.....but then again..they all do at this range, don't they? CAD actually got STRONGER from previous frame when the precip came in. Probably gonna be a nice thump, then rain. I suppose that the CAD will probably trend a bit stronger as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Warm nose at 800 blasts through between 9z and 12z (165/168 hrs), but a bunch of precip has already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS looks amazing for you guys, jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, the Fri next week thing is looking pretty sick.....but then again..they all do at this range, don't they? Where's that "storm template" that someone wrote up, on how predictable these things have been for us? The "infinite loop" thing, starting with what looks like a great storm, etc., ends up nothing. Maybe we should pin that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 looks like the worst of the last few runs of the gfs to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, the Fri next week thing is looking pretty sick.....but then again..they all do at this range, don't they? From a distance, they all look like Kate Upton...then you get closer and notice a few flaws, but can still see the beauty, then when you get right up close, you're hoping for a really nice personality. Anyway...surface freezing line is roughly RIC-Roanake at 168 hours. Snow-to-sleet-to-FZRA-to-dryslot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, the Fri next week thing is looking pretty sick.....but then again..they all do at this range, don't they? CAD actually got STRONGER from previous frame when the precip came in. Probably gonna be a nice thump, then rain. I suppose that the CAD will probably trend a bit stronger as we get closer. I'd be willing, after looking at its 0z run, to bet that the Euro will look even better than the GFS. I think you are correct, the CAD usually gets stronger as we get closer. This could be a good thumping, icing, drizzle situation. Of course, like you said, its still a week away. That could mean anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 CAD hung in there tough...then at 171, WAA finally wins the battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 hangs back a piece of energy...maybe something brewing in the gulf at 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, the Fri next week thing is looking pretty sick.....but then again..they all do at this range, don't they? CAD actually got STRONGER from previous frame when the precip came in. Probably gonna be a nice thump, then rain. I suppose that the CAD will probably trend a bit stronger as we get closer. Heh, click surface panels from 162-68. Central to sw va ice special. I know it's prob not goin down like that but wow. Looks like dc are gets 3-6 based on temps before a switch to ice of all things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Where's that "storm template" that someone wrote up, on how predictable these things have been for us? The "infinite loop" thing, starting with what looks like a great storm, etc., ends up nothing. Maybe we should pin that. That was me. I think it's somewhere in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 looks like the worst of the last few runs of the gfs to me I agree definitely a warm layer as MN pointed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I agree definitely a warm layer as MN pointed out And he also said a bunch of precip fell before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 look at the thicknesses (last number) FRI 12Z 22-FEB -1.9 -0.5 1019 97 100 0.38 562 547 and it starts out at the beginning of the period at 543that's not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well, either way, this is shaping up to be a real mess next Friday as it looks now. Can you imagine decent snow to ice here at the time of the Friday morning commute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I agree definitely a warm layer as MN pointed out i didnt look at 6z that close but 0z was a good bit better i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 500 thickness is overrated, IMO, as a useful diagnostic for RA vs. SN. Anybody have the full sounding info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 For my area-- western areas do great because the snow kicks in soon. Out my way 1-2 snow/sleet then ZR. We won't get above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 checked the snow maps.. maybe they're wrong (must be to a degree) but they show no snow with that shot heh. last night was 4-8" from near the potomac and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It almost looks like that closed 500mb low goes straight north, with gradually lowering heights below it, and some energy still in the southwest? Weird looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 i didnt look at 6z that close but 0z was a good bit better i think. lol- i didn't really look at 0z. None of it really matters. Half decent placement of a 1030+ hp before precip moves in on 12z. Over analyzing while we're still out in time travel land isn't worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 500 thickness is overrated, IMO, as a useful diagnostic for RA vs. SN. Anybody have the full sounding info? when it is at 543 to 547 in this part of the country it's usually indicative of something other than snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 checked the snow maps.. maybe they're wrong (must be to a degree) but they show no snow with that shot heh. last night was 4-8" from near the potomac and north. Raleigh's map has 4-6" or so for the entire area with 8"+ for the Blue Ridge area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 when it is at 543 to 547 in this part of the country it's usually indicative of something other than snow so is living in dca-bwi metro areas. Thicknesses schmicknesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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