February 2013 mid-long range disco thread Part 2

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Weenie maps say 4-8" statewide It's a start I guess

[Ji]

Weenie maps say 4-8" statewide It's a start I guess

that would be 4-8 more than we've had in 2 years

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Is Block shearing it? What was it doing at 180?

Weak low heads into Ohio valley baggy ness scoots across nc forms a weak low off va 50/50 low still there but the midwest upper low still heads into the lakes but the whole set up is weaker at the surface

[Midlo Snow Maker]

that would be 4-8 more than we've had in 2 years

Better than the 0.00" 12z gave us

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Another storm for the 24th snowing at hr 228

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Another 4-8" Central/western va 3-4" elsewhere lol good night

[Ian]

Weenie maps say 4-8" statewide It's a start I guess

Euro has had snow on the front end on prior runs

[Bob Chill]

I didn't look all that close but 6z gfs appears ok like the euro for front end thump. Looks like we dryslot fairly quickly after it rains just enough to turn everything to mashed potatoes. So, we are "potentially" only 171 hours away from breaking the streak. LOL

 

Euro has 3 in a row it appears. I can't really tell on the 22nd event how much precip after the changeover. Looks like some but dryslot looks to get involved about the same as the gfs. After the follow up to the 22nd there's another big digger in the sw.  The back end of winter may end up being all front end. 

[showmethesnow]

I didn't look all that close but 6z gfs appears ok like the euro for front end thump. Looks like we dryslot fairly quickly after it rains just enough to turn everything to mashed potatoes. So, we are "potentially" only 171 hours away from breaking the streak. LOL

 

Euro has 3 in a row it appears. I can't really tell on the 22nd event how much precip after the changeover. Looks like some but dryslot looks to get involved about the same as the gfs. After the follow up to the 22nd there's another big digger in the sw.  The back end of winter may end up being all front end. 

The one big thing I took away from the 06 GFS was the fact that there was potential there. Whether we cash in is another story though. Considering i have been fighting a sinus infection for a good chuck of the winter now because of the dry air I am almost ready to call it quits and hope for spring to arrive.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I didn't look all that close but 6z gfs appears ok like the euro for front end thump. Looks like we dryslot fairly quickly after it rains just enough to turn everything to mashed potatoes. So, we are "potentially" only 171 hours away from breaking the streak. LOL

 

Euro has 3 in a row it appears. I can't really tell on the 22nd event how much precip after the changeover. Looks like some but dryslot looks to get involved about the same as the gfs. After the follow up to the 22nd there's another big digger in the sw.  The back end of winter may end up being all front end. 

 

I only looked briefly, but the setup on the GFS looks good (I like those type).  Of course, the block has to remain steady, but these work out pretty good sometimes.

[psuhoffman]

GFS is pretty good as is. Betting on a secondary to form further south is never that solid around here IMO. But it is a week away so it could happen.

It's all about the Atlantic with this one. As the wavelengths shorten here the nao becomes even more important and can dominate. If that atl setup is right this will trend good for us. If the atl breaks down then its next. This is more simple setup then these nb systems that involve phasing and timing. Throw an stj wave up into a block. I like simple. It works more often.

[Bob Chill]

I only looked briefly, but the setup on the GFS looks good (I like those type). Of course, the block has to remain steady, but these work out pretty good sometimes.

GFS and euro are about as good as it gets right now. We want this cutting near chicago. Just a simple front end and dryslot. Streak over. Everyone wins. It's not going under us. Not unless there are major changes. 500 has had the same general look for days. I suppose it's possible.

My fear is it's a weaker coming out of teh rockies and slower to develop so it ends up cutting to close and transferring too late. Let's not go down that scenario. Too complicated and I'm sick of complicated.

[showmethesnow]

Shame that the DGEX is a piece of crap because it shows one of the better solutions we can probably hope for at this time with the 22nd storm. Primary running to Chicago with a secondary forming in Georgia running up and off of the Va/NC coast.

[Bob Chill]

It's all about the Atlantic with this one. As the wavelengths shorten here the nao becomes even more important and can dominate. If that atl setup is right this will trend good for us. If the atl breaks down then its next. This is more simple setup then these nb systems that involve phasing and timing. Throw an stj wave up into a block. I like simple. It works more often.

 

We haven't had an nao signal door to door though. Yea, guidance takes it down a bit. Like -1 sd. Leading in to the 22nd event the block is centered east of iceland. East based NAO at the best. Models are all kinda sold on the idea of closing off 500 somewhere in se CO or thereabouts. I understand what you're taking about but I'm not seeing any chance the block centers over gl or west where it needs to be to keep this from cutting. 

 

Now, a weaker system and good blocking hp in canada could move it along more before cutting but miller b's are awful here. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

GFS and euro are about as good as it gets right now. We want this cutting near chicago. Just a simple front end and dryslot. Streak over. Everyone wins. It's not going under us. Not unless there are major changes. 500 has had the same general look for days. I suppose it's possible.

My fear is it's a weaker coming out of teh rockies and slower to develop so it ends up cutting to close and transferring too late. Let's not go down that scenario. Too complicated and I'm sick of complicated.

 

That 6z run isn't that far off from what we saw at Christmas.  If we can get that low to cut into the lower Ohio Valley and then transfer, we get front end, dry slot drizzle, and a cold front behind it to turn everything to cement.  Of course, that usually works out better out here than down in the cities. 

[usedtobe]

I didn't look all that close but 6z gfs appears ok like the euro for front end thump. Looks like we dryslot fairly quickly after it rains just enough to turn everything to mashed potatoes. So, we are "potentially" only 171 hours away from breaking the streak. LOL

 

Euro has 3 in a row it appears. I can't really tell on the 22nd event how much precip after the changeover. Looks like some but dryslot looks to get involved about the same as the gfs. After the follow up to the 22nd there's another big digger in the sw.  The back end of winter may end up being all front end. 

 

Both models have a pretty strong damming signature.  That's still always a little dicey for we dc abd east guys as yoou can have a warm layer at 800 mb.  Behind the 22nd event the euro  has a nice look. 

[Bob Chill]

Both models have a pretty strong damming signature.  That's still always a little dicey for we dc abd east guys as yoou can have a warm layer at 800 mb.  Behind the 22nd event the euro  has a nice look. 

 

Nice hp strength early on for sure. Moves nicely in tandem with the developing low. 

 

CAD at least is easy to see but how strong the wedge is won't be known for days. I'm the master at stating the obvious.

[stormtracker]

Nice hp strength early on for sure. Moves nicely in tandem with the developing low. 

 

CAD at least is easy to see but how strong the wedge is won't be known for days. I'm the master at stating the obvious.

It'll get stronger if the setup remains the same.

[Ian]

It'll get stronger if the setup remains the same.

Euro/GFS op already seem about as good as we should logically expect.

[Bob Chill]

Euro/GFS op already seem about as good as we should logically expect.

 

logic- heh...yea

 

At least we're 4 days away from getting nam'd a lot

[Ian]

logic- heh...yea

At least we're 4 days away from getting nam'd a lot

If we don't get dry slotted this storm could bring out the purples.

[HighStakes]

Euro/GFS op already seem about as good as we should logically expect.

logic would have given you at least 1 snowfall over 2 inches in the last 2 years.

[Bob Chill]

If we don't get dry slotted this storm could bring out the purples.

 

I'm fairly optimistic with this one. Models have been lasered in for the most part. Cold air source seems like a lock. Winwxluvr wins, Ji jackpots for the closer in burbs and complains, dc metro folks go obs crazy for an inch or 2 before the changeover then radio silence, and I feel really bad for wes. 

[Deck Pic]

I'm fairly optimistic with this one. Models have been lasered in for the most part. Cold air source seems like a lock. Winwxluvr wins, Ji jackpots for the closer in burbs and complains, dc metro folks go obs crazy for an inch or 2 before the changeover then radio silence, and I feel really bad for wes.

I'm less concerned with cold than I am that the storm gets sheared apart and we get low end wimpy QPF.

[usedtobe]

I'm less concerned with cold than I am that the storm gets sheared apart and we get low end wimpy QPF.

 

For fun I looked at teh soundings on the GFS and it is snow at 168hts and sleet at 174hrs/  That's an extended period of winter weather. I imagine out towards Winchester they would do even better than in the Dec storm providing we get the QPF. 

[Bob Chill]

For fun I looked at teh soundings on the GFS and it is snow at 168hts and sleet at 174hrs/  That's an extended period of winter weather. I imagine out towards Winchester they would do even better than in the Dec storm providing we get the QPF. 

 

What's your opinion on 500 closing off later and/or the system departing the rockies ends up being weaker? I personally don't want that unless it goes under us and I can't see how that happens. The big wrench imo would be getting the primary tracking further east and weakening while the transfer totally whiffs us as usual. Am I out to lunch on this scenario?

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm less concerned with cold than I am that the storm gets sheared apart and we get low end wimpy QPF.

 

And that's the reason we don't want the system to cut 1000 miles away, IMO.  We need it suppressed and closer, Ohio Valley close, running into strong blocking, transfering and dry slotting us before return of the colder air.  Wet, wet, wet.

[psuhoffman]

I'm less concerned with cold than I am that the storm gets sheared apart and we get low end wimpy QPF.

THIS

[psuhoffman]

And that's the reason we don't want the system to cut 1000 miles away, IMO.  We need it suppressed and closer, Ohio Valley close, running into strong blocking, transfering and dry slotting us before return of the colder air.  Wet, wet, wet.

and THIS

[usedtobe]

What's your opinion on 500 closing off later and/or the system departing the rockies ends up being weaker? I personally don't want that unless it goes under us and I can't see how that happens. The big wrench imo would be getting the primary tracking further east and weakening while the transfer totally whiffs us as usual. Am I out to lunch on this scenario?

 

I kind of agree with Ian that the current GFS and Euro looks are about as good as we can expect.   Of course if it dry slots quick enough you can always get a few inches of snow and then go to drizzle.