stormtracker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, the Fri next week thing is looking pretty sick.....but then again..they all do at this range, don't they? CAD actually got STRONGER from previous frame when the precip came in. Probably gonna be a nice thump, then rain. I suppose that the CAD will probably trend a bit stronger as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Warm nose at 800 blasts through between 9z and 12z (165/168 hrs), but a bunch of precip has already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFS looks amazing for you guys, jeez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, the Fri next week thing is looking pretty sick.....but then again..they all do at this range, don't they? Where's that "storm template" that someone wrote up, on how predictable these things have been for us? The "infinite loop" thing, starting with what looks like a great storm, etc., ends up nothing. Maybe we should pin that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 looks like the worst of the last few runs of the gfs to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, the Fri next week thing is looking pretty sick.....but then again..they all do at this range, don't they? From a distance, they all look like Kate Upton...then you get closer and notice a few flaws, but can still see the beauty, then when you get right up close, you're hoping for a really nice personality. Anyway...surface freezing line is roughly RIC-Roanake at 168 hours. Snow-to-sleet-to-FZRA-to-dryslot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, the Fri next week thing is looking pretty sick.....but then again..they all do at this range, don't they? CAD actually got STRONGER from previous frame when the precip came in. Probably gonna be a nice thump, then rain. I suppose that the CAD will probably trend a bit stronger as we get closer. I'd be willing, after looking at its 0z run, to bet that the Euro will look even better than the GFS. I think you are correct, the CAD usually gets stronger as we get closer. This could be a good thumping, icing, drizzle situation. Of course, like you said, its still a week away. That could mean anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 CAD hung in there tough...then at 171, WAA finally wins the battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 hangs back a piece of energy...maybe something brewing in the gulf at 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yeah, the Fri next week thing is looking pretty sick.....but then again..they all do at this range, don't they? CAD actually got STRONGER from previous frame when the precip came in. Probably gonna be a nice thump, then rain. I suppose that the CAD will probably trend a bit stronger as we get closer. Heh, click surface panels from 162-68. Central to sw va ice special. I know it's prob not goin down like that but wow. Looks like dc are gets 3-6 based on temps before a switch to ice of all things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Where's that "storm template" that someone wrote up, on how predictable these things have been for us? The "infinite loop" thing, starting with what looks like a great storm, etc., ends up nothing. Maybe we should pin that. That was me. I think it's somewhere in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 looks like the worst of the last few runs of the gfs to me I agree definitely a warm layer as MN pointed out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I agree definitely a warm layer as MN pointed out And he also said a bunch of precip fell before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 look at the thicknesses (last number) FRI 12Z 22-FEB -1.9 -0.5 1019 97 100 0.38 562 547 and it starts out at the beginning of the period at 543that's not snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Well, either way, this is shaping up to be a real mess next Friday as it looks now. Can you imagine decent snow to ice here at the time of the Friday morning commute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I agree definitely a warm layer as MN pointed out i didnt look at 6z that close but 0z was a good bit better i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 500 thickness is overrated, IMO, as a useful diagnostic for RA vs. SN. Anybody have the full sounding info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 For my area-- western areas do great because the snow kicks in soon. Out my way 1-2 snow/sleet then ZR. We won't get above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 checked the snow maps.. maybe they're wrong (must be to a degree) but they show no snow with that shot heh. last night was 4-8" from near the potomac and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It almost looks like that closed 500mb low goes straight north, with gradually lowering heights below it, and some energy still in the southwest? Weird looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 i didnt look at 6z that close but 0z was a good bit better i think. lol- i didn't really look at 0z. None of it really matters. Half decent placement of a 1030+ hp before precip moves in on 12z. Over analyzing while we're still out in time travel land isn't worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 500 thickness is overrated, IMO, as a useful diagnostic for RA vs. SN. Anybody have the full sounding info? when it is at 543 to 547 in this part of the country it's usually indicative of something other than snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 checked the snow maps.. maybe they're wrong (must be to a degree) but they show no snow with that shot heh. last night was 4-8" from near the potomac and north. Raleigh's map has 4-6" or so for the entire area with 8"+ for the Blue Ridge area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 when it is at 543 to 547 in this part of the country it's usually indicative of something other than snow so is living in dca-bwi metro areas. Thicknesses schmicknesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think part of the problem on this run is that the low seems to slow down allowing warmer air to filter up vs. barreling right into the cold dome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 500 thickness is overrated, IMO, as a useful diagnostic for RA vs. SN. Anybody have the full sounding info? Agree. Full soundings aren't out yet on twisterdata (thru 90 right now), but you can step through the critical levels on instantweathermaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I think part of the problem on this run is that the low seems to slow down allowing warmer air to filter up vs. barreling right into the cold dome Yeah, sort of looks like that, and what I saw with the 500 low bodily pushing everything out of the way as it moves due north. Not trying to parse things too much here...just what the model looks like this time around verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 when it is at 543 to 547 in this part of the country it's usually indicative of something other than snow Mitch, I've seen it snow here at 549 thickness. I don't put much stock on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0.75"+ liquid with temps below freezing here. Too early to look at soundings, but would be a major winter storm no matter what precip-type falls if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Agree. Full soundings aren't out yet on twisterdata (thru 90 right now), but you can step through the critical levels on instantweathermaps. Good stuff. Hadn't seen that webpage before. Just about as good as a full sounding with all the levels. Based on that, looks like ~4-6 hours of snow, then a couple hours of pingers, a little freezing rain and ending as drizzle. Not a bad way to go for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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