Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Glad we're always looking for a HECS. Keeps things sane. vinylfreak is the new BB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Glad we're always looking for a HECS. Keeps things sane. Sometimes it seems that odds for one are about the same as the odds for a "normal" snow. Looks like some decent chances though. Some of the best we've had in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 PD III can actually get better than the GFS has modeled. The h5 is still strung out and not consolidated. How do you figure? Looks to me like the s/w's phase around 144hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Glad we're always looking for a HECS. Keeps things sane. Go broke or go home, that is the MA's new theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah, the last panel definitely looks cutter i dont think that storm will be a cutter by the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 of course the JMA sniffed this one yesterday. JMA is like the JB. IT seems to always see the big storms first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 i dont think that storm will be a cutter by the way. Well, there is a nice HIgh in place with a strong CAD signal..but looks like it will go way west of us.....I wish it were charging up the e TN valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 And btw, this is a model discussion thread. I don't think it's wrong to discuss and analyze with the model is showing. THe problem comes if anybody is making a forecast based on a 140 hour prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah, the last panel definitely looks cutter I wouldn't be so quick to say that...take a look at that strong 50/50 (well not quite 50-50 but close enough) low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 i dont think that storm will be a cutter by the way. trough is neutral/neg near the Miss so not good. But it is 180+ hours so no need to parse it now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Feb 19 looks like a historic ice storm if that verified(the randy cutter storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 i might do an all nighter starting tonight through Feb 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That's pretty far out in the future, but a "cutter" isn't necessarily awful for some parts of the region. It just isn't an all snow solution. Looks to be a pretty decent cold airmass in place before, so we could be looking at the day after Christmas scenario. Of course, its too far out to really discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 And btw, this is a model discussion thread. I don't think it's wrong to discuss and analyze with the model is showing. THe problem comes if anybody is making a forecast based on a 140 hour prog. you went all-in on wednesday's event based on a 140 hr prog that was the 1st good model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 One storm at a time guys... Keep calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Author Share Posted February 11, 2013 UKIE develops a coastal low near HSE off a transfer (I guess? Isobars look that way) at 120 at 1000 mb... then it moves NNE into BOS at 144 at 979 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 you went all-in on wednesday's event based on a 140 hr prog that was the 1st good model run Yes, after I said I was way more positive about next week (it was last week when I said that) and that that had a better opportunity. So yeah, there's that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Big storm with well-modeled high-lattitude blocking... this should be in the Euro's wheehouse then, no? Little bit concerned why it apparently showed no hint of said event (i haven't looked at the model, just commenting on others' commentary). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 zwyts should be more of a cheerleader for these runs. His February forecast is on the line as is the CWG forecast. It needs to snow in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Big storm with well-modeled high-lattitude blocking... this should be in the Euro's wheehouse then, no? Little bit concerned why it apparently showed no hint of said event (i haven't looked at the model, just commenting on others' commentary). it has the hint of something but it's too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 it has the hint of something but it's too far offshore. Thanks for that. zwyts should be more of a cheerleader for these runs. His February forecast is on the line as is the CWG forecast. It needs to snow in February Whether it snows or not, the fact that he cited the potential for Feb with his back-loaded winter call and nailed the warmer-than-average Dec - Jan periods (if not the magnitude) for a seasonal outlook was damn impressive in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 The Mid Atlantic angst is fundamentally structured in our DNA. We will worry, fret, punt and repunt cancel repunt an average of 2.4 times between us all on any given storm. That's just how it is. I'd like to unpunt the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 zwyts should be more of a cheerleader for these runs. His February forecast is on the line as is the CWG forecast. It needs to snow in February I think you have to have some cognitive dissonance with these things. A broad brush outlook doesn't mean that a certain discrete threat will come to fruition. I'm certainly not punting my outlook, but it doesnt mean any particular storm will adjust at the last minute because analogs say so...nobody was sweet on 2/13 until the GFS showed us getting pasted..it didnt look like anything good lagged the front until that run...most of us liked the upcoming period better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I wouldn't be so quick to say that... I would. trough is neutral/neg near the Miss Colorado so not good certain cutter. But it is 180+ hours so no need to parse it now fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 HPC seems to favor the development after us http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 the gfs gives new england like 400 inches of snow this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 the gfs gives new england like 400 inches of snow this run Tolland gets like 600" i heard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 HPC seems to favor the development after us http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=4&fcolor=wbg GEFS are split between 3 camps (and fairly evenly) for PD3: 1. Op-like with a low forming over the SE and moving up coast 2. HPC-like with a Miller-B scenario 3. No storm/well OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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