Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 probably mixes fairly quick still.. a few inches then some sort of crud. we need some good snow so people can stop exaggerating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 it looks like there is a 50 50 low and a good -NAO. That would keep HP locked in for a while. I think the storm is guaranteed....its the precip type thats questionable lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Also helps to not have a weak H in Quebec... that H is 1035-1040 and means business That big high has been consistently modeled and will be key. Just need it to end up in the right position and hold it's strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 probably mixes fairly quick still.. a few inches then some sort of crud. we need some good snow so people can stop exaggerating. yea..here is your few cruddy inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Also helps to not have a weak H in Quebec... that H is 1035-1040 and means business We may end up in 3 weeks with nothing to show for it but since I am going to track everything anyway I want an active pattern and I want big storms and big complexes. And looks like we will get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 yea..here is your few cruddy inches you're still a surprisingly bad poster sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 plus with the blocking..the main system i think would be further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 probably mixes fairly quick still.. a few inches then some sort of crud. we need some good snow so people can stop exaggerating. 2m temps are below freezing... so unless there is a warm layer somewhere... its snow for about .6 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 you're still a surprisingly bad poster sometimes. but were balanced out by your always amazing posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 2m temps are below freezing... so unless there is a warm layer somewhere... its snow for about .6 QPF could be.. tho i bet there is a warm layer at some pt. i was thinking 3-5, 3-6" locally.. which might be more than a "few".. but decidedly less than a mecs or hecs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 but were balanced out by your always amazing posts i don't exaggerate.. not sure the point when we all are looking at the same things. im more concerned with being accurate than cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 could be.. tho i bet there is a warm layer at some pt. i was thinking 3-5, 3-6" locally.. which might be more than a "few".. but decidedly less than a mecs or hecs. That's BECS material these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 anyone staying up for the 6z jma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 im just grumpy because there is no sign to the end of our backloaded winter. congrats matt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 could be.. tho i bet there is a warm layer at some pt. i was thinking 3-5, 3-6" locally.. which might be more than a "few".. but decidedly less than a mecs or hecs. True... but I think we would take that and play in it before rain washed it all away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 That's BECS material these days. leesburg will be along in the morning to give you some dry slot learning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 im just grumpy because there is no sign to the end of our backloaded winter. congrats matt. Ha. I wish. I just want one decent one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This one is probably going to be the most annoying storm to track all winter. I won't even list the reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 True... but I think we would take that and play in it before rain washed it all away we still focus on too many absolutes. we have no clue how the storm will evolve other than it has the potential to be big for the eastern half of the country. you could end up getting a thump then missing the secondary all together.. could end up with a cutter that has wimpy cad.. etc. im not sure this run in itself changes much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 im just grumpy because there is no sign to the end of our backloaded winter. congrats matt. looks like MORCH(another word i hate) may be delayed. I did exaggerate a little with the MECS/HECS talk...i didnt think the system would cut as far north as it did. No hard feelings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Ha. I wish. I just want one decent one. I guess the good news is we might still end up near avg for the month. I've been spoiled by 70s in Feb too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 looks like MORCH(another word i hate) may be delayed. I did exaggerate a little with the MECS/HECS talk...i didnt think the system would cut as far north as it did. No hard feelings I'm just giving you a hard time. I dunno what will happen. GFS is possible. Hopefully we dry slot after the thump if so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 With that set-up for Feb. 21-22.. IF it is right, the primary low will not track that far north with a 50/50 in place and I think the secondary development happens further south too. I think this is the most legit shot all year for us to get a big storm. I would be surprised if this does not continue to trend colder and further south. Still think for MBY it is a snow to ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 With that set-up for Feb. 21-22.. IF it is right, the primary low will not track that far north with a 50/50 in place and I think the secondary development happens further south too. I think this is the most legit shot all year for us to get a big storm. I would be surprised if this does not continue to trend colder and further south. Still think for MBY it is a snow to ice event. GFS is pretty good as is. Betting on a secondary to form further south is never that solid around here IMO. But it is a week away so it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GGEM takes a weak low off the coast. Would not get heavy rates but an inverted troff would remain over Central MD, VA for days sort of like March 1942. Too bad it starts at 180hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I guess the good news is we might still end up near avg for the month. I've been spoiled by 70s in Feb too much. I feel pretty good about a minus February. Our norm is florida-esque. Whether we get snow or not I don't know. I might try to change the format of the outlook next year or tweak it. I'm going to be pissed if I have to give myself a C+ when my ideas were pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro looks good at 180 not sure how long it last though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Euro looks good at 180 not sure how long it last though Probably 48 seconds till 186 comes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Probably 48 seconds till 186 comes outYou are holding on at 186 but at 192 it looks sheared out and weak, a coastal trying to form off of va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You are holding on at 186 but at 192 it looks sheared out and weak, a coastal trying to form off of va Is Block shearing it? What was it doing at 180? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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