dtk Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's not just NASA...a lot of NOAA's computing power is tied up at places like ESRL (outside of the operational centers) and is climate-centric (and with a tenuous research-to-operations path). Regardless, the issues with NWP here are a lot more complicated than just needing more computing power.... I agree in principle, but the lack of computing power not only holds back the ability to run higher resolution in production, it severely limits our capabilities in R&D mode. However, no excuses, we have to do the best we can with what we have. It's not a matter of what we cannot do, but a matter of what we can/should do. By the way, the references in computing power are for our current operational machine (IBM P6, which is severely outdated now)....we are going through a transition process to our new supercomputer; scheduled to go live in August (I think). This will give us some increase in computing power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I agree in principle, but the lack of computing power not only holds back the ability to run higher resolution in production, it severely limits our capabilities in R&D mode. However, no excuses, we have to do the best we can with what we have. It's not a matter of what we cannot do, but a matter of what we can/should do. By the way, the references in computing power are for our current operational machine (IBM P6, which is severely outdated now)....we are going through a transition process to our new supercomputer; scheduled to go live in August (I think). This will give us some increase in computing power. Yeah I agree, I think a commitment from NOAA leadership to make NWP a larger priority would fix a lot of the other issues (outside of just pure upgrades to the infrastructure).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS 12z looks like it will come in south of 0z with the 2/22 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS 12z looks like it will come in south of 0z with the 2/22 event There's just nothing to stop it from going N. Pretty strong departing the rockies. I can't remember many that track across the country and come underneath us without a massive block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS 12z looks like it will come in south of 0z with the 2/22 event If that is south...where did 0z have it? Manitoba? Not that it's worth discussing much at 180+ hours, but still starts as snow or ice for the 95 corridor and points N/W at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 CAD/wedge sig. 850's and surface below freezing at onset. Snow to rain. .25+/- falls as snow if i had to guess. Not that is matters much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That's a nice midwest storm on 2/22. Are we tracking midwest storms now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If that is south...where did 0z have it? Manitoba? thru 153 hrs vs. 165 at 0z, it was south by a noticeable bit then the block, if that's what we want to call it, just shriveled up and let it come north we root for front end thump and that's the best we do slight chance it cuts so far west that it doesn't bring so much warm air with it, but that's a long shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 CAD/wedge sig. 850's and surface below freezing at onset. Snow to rain. .25+/- falls as snow if i had to guess. Not that is matters much. If I was in Winchester or even Ji in Leesburg I'd be thinking I'd see another accumulating snow. In DC without looking at the temps above 850, it's hard to know how we shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Cutting to Chicago or Madison, WI, is usually better for us than cutting to Cleveland if we can get some overrunning precip into the cold wedge before the warm front scours it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 end of the gfs run is March time to get out the fork on this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 at least the gfs makes more sense than the euro. the euro somehow thumps us with like 10" in 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If I was in Winchester or even Ji in Leesburg I'd be thinking I'd see another accumulating snow. In DC without looking at the temps above 850, it's hard to know how we shake out. Yea, I was just casually pointing it out. Euro has the same idea. Comes down to details that won't be know for days and days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 at least the gfs makes more sense than the euro. the euro somehow thumps us with like 10" in 10 hours. I guess I'll need to delete all my other posts re the Euro and hug it until it starts leaking PCBs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I guess I'll need to delete all my other posts re the Euro and hug it until it starts leaking PCBs tho the gfs gives us some accum on the backside .. i dont think any really on the front end dc/balt despite 850s.. tho of course cad will grow. the high location and movement is not spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Are we really going to see such a strong cutter?...I know the euro has lost some of its luster lately, but I would use it and the gefs/euro ensembles at this range for some very very broad guidance versus the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Are we really going to see such a strong cutter?...I know the euro has lost some of its luster lately, but I would use it and the gefs/euro ensembles at this range for some very very broad guidance versus the GFS maybe not but the euro op is kind of on its own with that bigger snow potential. euro ens mainly suggests its a midwest to new england sno event with some down here. not a horrible idea i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I could see JYO get 18", IAD 12" and DCA 4" this winter....it reminds me a bit of 96-97 when I got almost 20" on the MD/DC line and DCA got 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Are we really going to see such a strong cutter?...I know the euro has lost some of its luster lately, but I would use it and the gefs/euro ensembles at this range for some very very broad guidance versus the GFS At that time range I'd certainly trust the ensemble more than the operational runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 maybe not but the euro op is kind of on its own with that bigger snow potential. euro ens mainly suggests its a midwest to new england sno event with some down here. not a horrible idea i suppose. not sure it is relevant but we saw teh same thing with the KU....it was a solid lakes cutter a week out....the models usually trend away from the lakes with these things though not necessarily good enough for us....i'll go ahead and say the primary is weaker and and runs up the apps or just west into the eastern OV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 not sure it is relevant but we saw teh same thing with the KU....it was a solid lakes cutter a week out....the models usually trend away from the lakes with these things though not necessarily good enough for us....i'll go ahead and say the primary is weaker and and runs up the apps or just west into the eastern OV yeah the storm around christmas did sort of the same thing too. i'd probably hedge on the eastern side myself for now tho i don't think it's impossible for the ops solution to verify (at least out west) either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 yeah the storm around christmas did sort of the same thing too. i'd probably hedge on the eastern side myself for now tho i don't think it's impossible for the ops solution to verify (at least out west) either. yeah...was just going to mention that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GEFS is a warm lakes cutter...warmer than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 does anyone remember an event in the 1990s where DC/Northern Virginia area got 4-6 inches but north of Rockville, they got flurries. I remember getting pounded but my parents went to their friends house up near Rockville and only saw flurries? Saturday evening? Maybe 1/28/95? Although, I lived in Potomac then and we did get accumulating snow- ~3-4". yes...it was 1/28/95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 a few of the individual GEFS members still have a better solution for Feb 22, the GGEM for what little it is worth looks really good, and the Euro still seems in the ballpark. Until I see the NAO break down, I am not bailing on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thats the key is the block. Will it really be there? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thats the key is the block. Will it really be there? Who knows. Most solutions this year have been ones that come up short for MA. Psyche says be ready to be disappointed but hope for something awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 euro is a strong lakes cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 euro is a strong lakes cutter well....I guess that's better than a weak one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 What happens at the surface between 192 and 216? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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