usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I guess nobody cares. Amazing. I don't see the Euro, but I'll take what the GFS is showing right now. We don't have to have a bombing low off the Carolina coast to get a good winter storm. The setup on the GFS works too. If I lived where you lived I'd sure be excited about the Feb 22 event as the euro shows really good looking damming. I doubt the Ji version of euro snowfall is correct especially towards DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It is and they certainly do. DT posted a chart about this I think yesterday or the day before. Hell...I'm stunned at how much computing power NASA has at hand (and apparently underutilized). For my new job here, my colleague suggested I request 400-800K hours of processor time and that it was a modest request! Showmethesnow: I think it's even more...try DT's FB page for the chart. If they're running 50 ensembles at 16 km resolution, then they have A LOT more computing power than NCEP. It's not just NASA...a lot of NOAA's computing power is tied up at places like ESRL (outside of the operational centers) and is climate-centric (and with a tenuous research-to-operations path). Regardless, the issues with NWP here are a lot more complicated than just needing more computing power.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 it was on a saturday evening. IAD got between 4-6 inches and northern Mont county got zero. it was a weird system. Saturday evening? Maybe 1/28/95? Although, I lived in Potomac then and we did get accumulating snow- ~3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 there was a storm that bob ryan called "the stripe snow" that gave dc and some surrounding areas a good 4-8"+, but not much farther south or north. i feel like that was in dec 98, but could be wrong. there was also a storm in the 90s (maybe earlier 90s) that gave rockville about 5" and dc about an inch. i know because i was in rockville. i'm just pretty awful with dates. I live in Germantown and work in DC -- the March 99 deal was at least 8" in DC and I remember close to a foot in parts of NoVa? In Germantown we got about 5" or so, but as close as northern MD got close to nothing. The map for it is a stripe NW to SE right over the DC area. The news called in DC's private snowstorm LOL. In 12/5/03, I got on the train in Germantown with 8" and mod sn; and got off in DC to only rain. That was the biggest difference I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 does anyone remember an event in the 1990s where DC/Northern Virginia area got 4-6 inches but north of Rockville, they got flurries. I remember getting pounded but my parents went to their friends house up near Rockville and only saw flurries? There was a storm on Jan. 28th 1995 that fits this description. Terps beat Duke that day and when we walked out of Cole Field House there was about 4 on the ground and it was still snowning. Traffic was a nightmare. Took an hour just to get back on 95. Once you got 5 miles north there was absolutely nothing on the ground. It was a virga storm from Columbia north. It was my birthday and I was pissed but the Terps win helped to ease the pain. Fortunately we all got something decent the next weekend with the noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 There was a storm on Jan. 28th 1995 that fits this description. Terps beat Duke that day and when we walked out of Cole Field House there was about 4 on the ground and it was still snowning. Traffic was a nightmare. Took an hour just to get back on 95. Once you got 5 miles north there was absolutely nothing on the ground. It was a virga storm from Columbia north. It was my birthday and I was pissed but the Terps win helped to ease the pain. Fortunately we all got something decent the next weekend with the noreaster. That's the one I mentioned above too. The only thing is that the cutoff was not "just north of Rockville." Gaithersburg and Germantown both reported 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That's the one I mentioned above too. The only thing is that the cutoff was not "just north of Rockville." Gaithersburg and Germantown both reported 3". Must have been a west to east sharp cutoff as well as south to north. I also remember it being a very cold storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 March 99 Got almost 3 in Reisterstown. LWX has a snowfall accumulation map for that storm. Even areas in southern PA received measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Maybe you know...I've never gotten a good answer on this...are the Euro ensembles useful within 72...48...or 24 hours of an event? I assume they must be lower resolution than the Op. Relative to the GEFS, I would say they are still useful even at short-ish ranges, given their resolution and treatment of model error/uncertainty. The resolution is lower than the operational (just like the GEFS), but still pretty high: T639 resolution from day 0 to day 10, and with lower (T319) resolution from day 10 to day 15. They use semi-Lagrangian dynamics and a corresponding linear grid which means it isn't directly comparable to the GFS (which currently uses an Eulerian model and quadratic grid). Even still, their ensemble integrations are comparable in resolution (out to day 10) to the current operational deterministic GFS.....but much coarser than their operational deterministic integration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Relative to the GEFS, I would say they are still useful even at short-ish ranges, given their resolution and treatment of model error/uncertainty. The resolution is lower than the operational (just like the GEFS), but still pretty high: T639 resolution from day 0 to day 10, and with lower (T319) resolution from day 10 to day 15. They use semi-Lagrangian dynamics and a corresponding linear grid which means it isn't directly comparable to the GFS (which currently uses an Eulerian model and quadratic grid). Even still, their ensemble integrations are comparable in resolution (out to day 10) to the current operational deterministic GFS.....but much coarser than their operational deterministic integration. Daryl, Thanks for the clarification about the european ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's not just NASA...a lot of NOAA's computing power is tied up at places like ESRL (outside of the operational centers) and is climate-centric (and with a tenuous research-to-operations path). Regardless, the issues with NWP here are a lot more complicated than just needing more computing power.... I agree in principle, but the lack of computing power not only holds back the ability to run higher resolution in production, it severely limits our capabilities in R&D mode. However, no excuses, we have to do the best we can with what we have. It's not a matter of what we cannot do, but a matter of what we can/should do. By the way, the references in computing power are for our current operational machine (IBM P6, which is severely outdated now)....we are going through a transition process to our new supercomputer; scheduled to go live in August (I think). This will give us some increase in computing power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I agree in principle, but the lack of computing power not only holds back the ability to run higher resolution in production, it severely limits our capabilities in R&D mode. However, no excuses, we have to do the best we can with what we have. It's not a matter of what we cannot do, but a matter of what we can/should do. By the way, the references in computing power are for our current operational machine (IBM P6, which is severely outdated now)....we are going through a transition process to our new supercomputer; scheduled to go live in August (I think). This will give us some increase in computing power. Yeah I agree, I think a commitment from NOAA leadership to make NWP a larger priority would fix a lot of the other issues (outside of just pure upgrades to the infrastructure).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS 12z looks like it will come in south of 0z with the 2/22 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS 12z looks like it will come in south of 0z with the 2/22 event There's just nothing to stop it from going N. Pretty strong departing the rockies. I can't remember many that track across the country and come underneath us without a massive block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS 12z looks like it will come in south of 0z with the 2/22 event If that is south...where did 0z have it? Manitoba? Not that it's worth discussing much at 180+ hours, but still starts as snow or ice for the 95 corridor and points N/W at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 CAD/wedge sig. 850's and surface below freezing at onset. Snow to rain. .25+/- falls as snow if i had to guess. Not that is matters much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That's a nice midwest storm on 2/22. Are we tracking midwest storms now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If that is south...where did 0z have it? Manitoba? thru 153 hrs vs. 165 at 0z, it was south by a noticeable bit then the block, if that's what we want to call it, just shriveled up and let it come north we root for front end thump and that's the best we do slight chance it cuts so far west that it doesn't bring so much warm air with it, but that's a long shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 CAD/wedge sig. 850's and surface below freezing at onset. Snow to rain. .25+/- falls as snow if i had to guess. Not that is matters much. If I was in Winchester or even Ji in Leesburg I'd be thinking I'd see another accumulating snow. In DC without looking at the temps above 850, it's hard to know how we shake out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Cutting to Chicago or Madison, WI, is usually better for us than cutting to Cleveland if we can get some overrunning precip into the cold wedge before the warm front scours it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 end of the gfs run is March time to get out the fork on this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 at least the gfs makes more sense than the euro. the euro somehow thumps us with like 10" in 10 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If I was in Winchester or even Ji in Leesburg I'd be thinking I'd see another accumulating snow. In DC without looking at the temps above 850, it's hard to know how we shake out. Yea, I was just casually pointing it out. Euro has the same idea. Comes down to details that won't be know for days and days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 at least the gfs makes more sense than the euro. the euro somehow thumps us with like 10" in 10 hours. I guess I'll need to delete all my other posts re the Euro and hug it until it starts leaking PCBs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I guess I'll need to delete all my other posts re the Euro and hug it until it starts leaking PCBs tho the gfs gives us some accum on the backside .. i dont think any really on the front end dc/balt despite 850s.. tho of course cad will grow. the high location and movement is not spectacular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Are we really going to see such a strong cutter?...I know the euro has lost some of its luster lately, but I would use it and the gefs/euro ensembles at this range for some very very broad guidance versus the GFS maybe not but the euro op is kind of on its own with that bigger snow potential. euro ens mainly suggests its a midwest to new england sno event with some down here. not a horrible idea i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Are we really going to see such a strong cutter?...I know the euro has lost some of its luster lately, but I would use it and the gefs/euro ensembles at this range for some very very broad guidance versus the GFS At that time range I'd certainly trust the ensemble more than the operational runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 not sure it is relevant but we saw teh same thing with the KU....it was a solid lakes cutter a week out....the models usually trend away from the lakes with these things though not necessarily good enough for us....i'll go ahead and say the primary is weaker and and runs up the apps or just west into the eastern OV yeah the storm around christmas did sort of the same thing too. i'd probably hedge on the eastern side myself for now tho i don't think it's impossible for the ops solution to verify (at least out west) either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 a few of the individual GEFS members still have a better solution for Feb 22, the GGEM for what little it is worth looks really good, and the Euro still seems in the ballpark. Until I see the NAO break down, I am not bailing on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thats the key is the block. Will it really be there? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.