psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 does anyone remember an event in the 1990s where DC/Northern Virginia area got 4-6 inches but north of Rockville, they got flurries. I remember getting pounded but my parents went to their friends house up near Rockville and only saw flurries? March 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro ensembles have a little 1013 low between DC and Richmond at 0z Saturday. Maybe someone with secret squirrel access can tell us if they have precip. GFS and Euro ensembles fairly similar with the 21-22nd storm with a possible front end thump or ice and then heavy rain. Yeah no go on the euro ensembles for the DC area...they show rpecip blooming later/further north like the op with a minor event for new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah no go on the euro ensembles for the DC area...they show rpecip blooming later/further north like the op with a minor event for new england Maybe you know...I've never gotten a good answer on this...are the Euro ensembles useful within 72...48...or 24 hours of an event? I assume they must be lower resolution than the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 March 99 no...it was definite not March 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM desperately wants to turn this into something bigger up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 March 99 I dont think that is it... parts of my area got 8 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thread here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39356-revenge-of-the-weekend-warrior-storm-215-216/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This storm needs a thread, but we shouldn't jynx it by giving it one. EDIT: too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Maybe you know...I've never gotten a good answer on this...are the Euro ensembles useful within 72...48...or 24 hours of an event? I assume they must be lower resolution than the Op. I definitely still look to them for agreement purposes within the short range, though obviously if you are looking for qpf totals within that range its probably not the best thing to look at...from my understanding there is no reduction in resolution from the euro op to ensemble members...that seems to be just a GFS phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM is a little slower with this and now is popping a weak low off southeast of the outer banks whereas before it was popping it fairly far from OC. Possible positive trend? This may still be evolving. Models are still getting closer to doing something with that trailing vort. Things are getting close to pulling it all together. The more consolidated the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 ...from my understanding there is no reduction in resolution from the euro op to ensemble members... Crazy how much computing power they have relative to NOAA/NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This may still be evolving. Models are still getting closer to doing something with that trailing vort. Things are getting close to pulling it all together. The more consolidated the better. To me looking at the trough it has a better look overall and looks as if it is less progressive with bringing it through MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Crazy how much computing power they have relative to NOAA/NWS. It really is unfortunate. I know the great minds over at NCEP do their best with what they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Crazy how much computing power they have relative to NOAA/NWS. Am I remembering correctly that it is roughly 10X what the GFS has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It really is unfortunate. I know the great minds over at NCEP do their best with what they have. It is and they certainly do. DT posted a chart about this I think yesterday or the day before. Hell...I'm stunned at how much computing power NASA has at hand (and apparently underutilized). For my new job here, my colleague suggested I request 400-800K hours of processor time and that it was a modest request! Showmethesnow: I think it's even more...try DT's FB page for the chart. If they're running 50 ensembles at 16 km resolution, then they have A LOT more computing power than NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 no...it was definite not March 99 there was a storm that bob ryan called "the stripe snow" that gave dc and some surrounding areas a good 4-8"+, but not much farther south or north. i feel like that was in dec 98, but could be wrong. there was also a storm in the 90s (maybe earlier 90s) that gave rockville about 5" and dc about an inch. i know because i was in rockville. i'm just pretty awful with dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro ensembles have a little 1013 low between DC and Richmond at 0z Saturday. Maybe someone with secret squirrel access can tell us if they have precip. GFS and Euro ensembles fairly similar with the 21-22nd storm with a possible front end thump or ice and then heavy rain. It looked as if the blocking really broke down on EURO op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Here is the 00z euro snowfall for the Feb 21-22 storm I guess nobody cares. Amazing. I don't see the Euro, but I'll take what the GFS is showing right now. We don't have to have a bombing low off the Carolina coast to get a good winter storm. The setup on the GFS works too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro ensembles have a little 1013 low between DC and Richmond at 0z Saturday. Maybe someone with secret squirrel access can tell us if they have precip. GFS and Euro ensembles fairly similar with the 21-22nd storm with a possible front end thump or ice and then heavy rain. I'll have to see that one to believe it. The one's like this that I remember are snow to sleet to freezing rain to dryslot/drizzle to cold front to wind. The Christmas storm never got above freezing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I definitely still look to them for agreement purposes within the short range, though obviously if you are looking for qpf totals within that range its probably not the best thing to look at...from my understanding there is no reduction in resolution from the euro op to ensemble members...that seems to be just a GFS phenomenon. I don' think that is right, maybe dtk can weight in. The euro ensembles members however are run at a resolution that is higher than the operatiional GFS if I remember correctly. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I guess nobody cares. Amazing. I don't see the Euro, but I'll take what the GFS is showing right now. We don't have to have a bombing low off the Carolina coast to get a good winter storm. The setup on the GFS works too. If I lived where you lived I'd sure be excited about the Feb 22 event as the euro shows really good looking damming. I doubt the Ji version of euro snowfall is correct especially towards DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It is and they certainly do. DT posted a chart about this I think yesterday or the day before. Hell...I'm stunned at how much computing power NASA has at hand (and apparently underutilized). For my new job here, my colleague suggested I request 400-800K hours of processor time and that it was a modest request! Showmethesnow: I think it's even more...try DT's FB page for the chart. If they're running 50 ensembles at 16 km resolution, then they have A LOT more computing power than NCEP. It's not just NASA...a lot of NOAA's computing power is tied up at places like ESRL (outside of the operational centers) and is climate-centric (and with a tenuous research-to-operations path). Regardless, the issues with NWP here are a lot more complicated than just needing more computing power.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 it was on a saturday evening. IAD got between 4-6 inches and northern Mont county got zero. it was a weird system. Saturday evening? Maybe 1/28/95? Although, I lived in Potomac then and we did get accumulating snow- ~3-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 there was a storm that bob ryan called "the stripe snow" that gave dc and some surrounding areas a good 4-8"+, but not much farther south or north. i feel like that was in dec 98, but could be wrong. there was also a storm in the 90s (maybe earlier 90s) that gave rockville about 5" and dc about an inch. i know because i was in rockville. i'm just pretty awful with dates. I live in Germantown and work in DC -- the March 99 deal was at least 8" in DC and I remember close to a foot in parts of NoVa? In Germantown we got about 5" or so, but as close as northern MD got close to nothing. The map for it is a stripe NW to SE right over the DC area. The news called in DC's private snowstorm LOL. In 12/5/03, I got on the train in Germantown with 8" and mod sn; and got off in DC to only rain. That was the biggest difference I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 does anyone remember an event in the 1990s where DC/Northern Virginia area got 4-6 inches but north of Rockville, they got flurries. I remember getting pounded but my parents went to their friends house up near Rockville and only saw flurries? There was a storm on Jan. 28th 1995 that fits this description. Terps beat Duke that day and when we walked out of Cole Field House there was about 4 on the ground and it was still snowning. Traffic was a nightmare. Took an hour just to get back on 95. Once you got 5 miles north there was absolutely nothing on the ground. It was a virga storm from Columbia north. It was my birthday and I was pissed but the Terps win helped to ease the pain. Fortunately we all got something decent the next weekend with the noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 There was a storm on Jan. 28th 1995 that fits this description. Terps beat Duke that day and when we walked out of Cole Field House there was about 4 on the ground and it was still snowning. Traffic was a nightmare. Took an hour just to get back on 95. Once you got 5 miles north there was absolutely nothing on the ground. It was a virga storm from Columbia north. It was my birthday and I was pissed but the Terps win helped to ease the pain. Fortunately we all got something decent the next weekend with the noreaster. That's the one I mentioned above too. The only thing is that the cutoff was not "just north of Rockville." Gaithersburg and Germantown both reported 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That's the one I mentioned above too. The only thing is that the cutoff was not "just north of Rockville." Gaithersburg and Germantown both reported 3". Must have been a west to east sharp cutoff as well as south to north. I also remember it being a very cold storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 March 99 Got almost 3 in Reisterstown. LWX has a snowfall accumulation map for that storm. Even areas in southern PA received measurable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Maybe you know...I've never gotten a good answer on this...are the Euro ensembles useful within 72...48...or 24 hours of an event? I assume they must be lower resolution than the Op. Relative to the GEFS, I would say they are still useful even at short-ish ranges, given their resolution and treatment of model error/uncertainty. The resolution is lower than the operational (just like the GEFS), but still pretty high: T639 resolution from day 0 to day 10, and with lower (T319) resolution from day 10 to day 15. They use semi-Lagrangian dynamics and a corresponding linear grid which means it isn't directly comparable to the GFS (which currently uses an Eulerian model and quadratic grid). Even still, their ensemble integrations are comparable in resolution (out to day 10) to the current operational deterministic GFS.....but much coarser than their operational deterministic integration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Relative to the GEFS, I would say they are still useful even at short-ish ranges, given their resolution and treatment of model error/uncertainty. The resolution is lower than the operational (just like the GEFS), but still pretty high: T639 resolution from day 0 to day 10, and with lower (T319) resolution from day 10 to day 15. They use semi-Lagrangian dynamics and a corresponding linear grid which means it isn't directly comparable to the GFS (which currently uses an Eulerian model and quadratic grid). Even still, their ensemble integrations are comparable in resolution (out to day 10) to the current operational deterministic GFS.....but much coarser than their operational deterministic integration. Daryl, Thanks for the clarification about the european ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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