Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I remember one when I was living in Silver Spring and got a couple of flurries while Waldorf was getting 4 to 6. It was a morning rush hour storm because I rememeber Bob Marburg (?) on WTOP talking about how bad it was down there. Not sure if it's the same one, but I'm sure Matt knows. it was on a saturday evening. IAD got between 4-6 inches and northern Mont county got zero. it was a weird system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Good start to the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro ensembles have a little 1013 low between DC and Richmond at 0z Saturday. Maybe someone with secret squirrel access can tell us if they have precip. GFS and Euro ensembles fairly similar with the 21-22nd storm with a possible front end thump or ice and then heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 the NAM sucks compared to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM is a little slower with this and now is popping a weak low off southeast of the outer banks whereas before it was popping it fairly far from OC. Possible positive trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Without looking at soundings, the fact that the critical thicknesses are south of the precip max in central VA at 42hrs, that's probably wet snow with a warm surface (sound very recently familiar?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not making a forecast just giving info on what it showed. Euro did trend towards an event but less so then the American models. I am cautiously optimistic. If the euro doesn't show a wetter solution at 12z though its a red flag that gfs is overdone. In the end qpf last night ended up split halfway between the euros .1 avg and the gfs/nam .6 avg for runs leading up to the day of. A euro gfs compromise is usually a good way to go. yesterday's 12z Euro run finally upped BWI qpf from yesterday's event to .15" after countless runs of under .1" BWI ended up with .31" Euro sucked for BWI; anyone want to argue otherwise for their back yard, go ahead because he/she may have a point, but it sucked for BWI GFS/NAM perfect? of course not, how often are the models perfect, but they had a handle on the event and except for going too high the day before on qpf, their runs starting 18z on Tuesday were right on the mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I guess I should probably read up on it. I was always under the impression you needed some sort of spin at some layer of the atmosphere to initiate them. The front has instability and the warm air is being forced to lift back over into the cold air behind the front. In this case it could be the sharpness of the trough doing the dirty work itself. As the energy dives into the trough and sharpens it up you get convergence along the front trailing the vort to the north. In this case that starts cyclogenisis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Without looking at soundings, the fact that the critical thicknesses are south of the precip max in central VA at 42hrs, that's probably wet snow with a warm surface (sound very recently familiar?). The difference is that with the VD storm it was warm at 950 at the start too. This one looks better in that respect (at least on the GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro ensembles have a little 1013 low between DC and Richmond at 0z Saturday. Maybe someone with secret squirrel access can tell us if they have precip. GFS and Euro ensembles fairly similar with the 21-22nd storm with a possible front end thump or ice and then heavy rain. Sneak attack on euro ens is virtually non-existent irt to precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 does anyone remember an event in the 1990s where DC/Northern Virginia area got 4-6 inches but north of Rockville, they got flurries. I remember getting pounded but my parents went to their friends house up near Rockville and only saw flurries? March 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro ensembles have a little 1013 low between DC and Richmond at 0z Saturday. Maybe someone with secret squirrel access can tell us if they have precip. GFS and Euro ensembles fairly similar with the 21-22nd storm with a possible front end thump or ice and then heavy rain. Yeah no go on the euro ensembles for the DC area...they show rpecip blooming later/further north like the op with a minor event for new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah no go on the euro ensembles for the DC area...they show rpecip blooming later/further north like the op with a minor event for new england Maybe you know...I've never gotten a good answer on this...are the Euro ensembles useful within 72...48...or 24 hours of an event? I assume they must be lower resolution than the Op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 March 99 no...it was definite not March 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM desperately wants to turn this into something bigger up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 March 99 I dont think that is it... parts of my area got 8 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thread here: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39356-revenge-of-the-weekend-warrior-storm-215-216/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This storm needs a thread, but we shouldn't jynx it by giving it one. EDIT: too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Maybe you know...I've never gotten a good answer on this...are the Euro ensembles useful within 72...48...or 24 hours of an event? I assume they must be lower resolution than the Op. I definitely still look to them for agreement purposes within the short range, though obviously if you are looking for qpf totals within that range its probably not the best thing to look at...from my understanding there is no reduction in resolution from the euro op to ensemble members...that seems to be just a GFS phenomenon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM is a little slower with this and now is popping a weak low off southeast of the outer banks whereas before it was popping it fairly far from OC. Possible positive trend? This may still be evolving. Models are still getting closer to doing something with that trailing vort. Things are getting close to pulling it all together. The more consolidated the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 ...from my understanding there is no reduction in resolution from the euro op to ensemble members... Crazy how much computing power they have relative to NOAA/NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This may still be evolving. Models are still getting closer to doing something with that trailing vort. Things are getting close to pulling it all together. The more consolidated the better. To me looking at the trough it has a better look overall and looks as if it is less progressive with bringing it through MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Crazy how much computing power they have relative to NOAA/NWS. It really is unfortunate. I know the great minds over at NCEP do their best with what they have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Crazy how much computing power they have relative to NOAA/NWS. Am I remembering correctly that it is roughly 10X what the GFS has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It really is unfortunate. I know the great minds over at NCEP do their best with what they have. It is and they certainly do. DT posted a chart about this I think yesterday or the day before. Hell...I'm stunned at how much computing power NASA has at hand (and apparently underutilized). For my new job here, my colleague suggested I request 400-800K hours of processor time and that it was a modest request! Showmethesnow: I think it's even more...try DT's FB page for the chart. If they're running 50 ensembles at 16 km resolution, then they have A LOT more computing power than NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 no...it was definite not March 99 there was a storm that bob ryan called "the stripe snow" that gave dc and some surrounding areas a good 4-8"+, but not much farther south or north. i feel like that was in dec 98, but could be wrong. there was also a storm in the 90s (maybe earlier 90s) that gave rockville about 5" and dc about an inch. i know because i was in rockville. i'm just pretty awful with dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro ensembles have a little 1013 low between DC and Richmond at 0z Saturday. Maybe someone with secret squirrel access can tell us if they have precip. GFS and Euro ensembles fairly similar with the 21-22nd storm with a possible front end thump or ice and then heavy rain. It looked as if the blocking really broke down on EURO op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Here is the 00z euro snowfall for the Feb 21-22 storm I guess nobody cares. Amazing. I don't see the Euro, but I'll take what the GFS is showing right now. We don't have to have a bombing low off the Carolina coast to get a good winter storm. The setup on the GFS works too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro ensembles have a little 1013 low between DC and Richmond at 0z Saturday. Maybe someone with secret squirrel access can tell us if they have precip. GFS and Euro ensembles fairly similar with the 21-22nd storm with a possible front end thump or ice and then heavy rain. I'll have to see that one to believe it. The one's like this that I remember are snow to sleet to freezing rain to dryslot/drizzle to cold front to wind. The Christmas storm never got above freezing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I definitely still look to them for agreement purposes within the short range, though obviously if you are looking for qpf totals within that range its probably not the best thing to look at...from my understanding there is no reduction in resolution from the euro op to ensemble members...that seems to be just a GFS phenomenon. I don' think that is right, maybe dtk can weight in. The euro ensembles members however are run at a resolution that is higher than the operatiional GFS if I remember correctly. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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