North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Why not just post that instead of one of your usual 10 line diatribes? This is a crap post. God forbid psu's thought out posts clutter up the pages and pages of ****ty one-liners from dumbasses... hoffman, please keep posting the detailed thoughts. The effort is appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 euro sux GFS/NAM/JMA (fwiw) are all on board Not making a forecast just giving info on what it showed. Euro did trend towards an event but less so then the American models. I am cautiously optimistic. If the euro doesn't show a wetter solution at 12z though its a red flag that gfs is overdone. In the end qpf last night ended up split halfway between the euros .1 avg and the gfs/nam .6 avg for runs leading up to the day of. A euro gfs compromise is usually a good way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If I remember correctly 1 of the Mets a couple of days ago had mentioned that the Euro ensemble was showing a phantom precip shadow at this time period in the mid atlantic region and he speculated that it may have signified 1 or a couple of members having a solution with a storm in this area. I said that and I do think it was picking up the chance of this frontal wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Sure would be nice for the surprise to be legit, because it is a cutter-fest (per the modeling) after that. Repeatedly. Something off with the long range maps though. The 180 500 map on the 6Z GFS has a nice 50/50 and a 1038 HP just north of the lakes. It then cuts the storm right into that that HP. Something to keep an eye on. If that HP is 1040+ I have a hard time believing that storm is cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not really within the usefulness of the ensembles but you have to like the fact that every single member is now showing this storm from out of nowhere with a hand full potentially being fairly major events. It indicates the op run wasn't just having a hiccup so that's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Something off with the long range maps though. The 180 500 map on the 6Z GFS has a nice 50/50 and a 1038 HP just north of the lakes. It then cuts the storm right into that that HP. Something to keep an eye on. If that HP is 1040+ I have a hard time believing that storm is cutting. Anything after truncation is bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Here is the 00z euro snowfall for the Feb 21-22 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Anything after truncation is bs. Agreed. But it needs to be watched. It is showing a decent 500 setup in that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I said that and I do think it was picking up the chance of this frontal wave Whats the mechanism behind this possible event? Do we have something sliding through at a level in the atmosphere that isn't available on Raleighs site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 We have been saying all week how sharp the trough is and that it wouldn't take much to get something going. This isn't out of nowhere. It's just a timing issue. It's basically a developing arctic frontal wave. No real vort to track. Basically it's all about how quickly the wave amps and where the front is when that happens. Usually needing a faster development is a loss but this is trending that way so I'm optimistic but 12z is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Whats the mechanism behind this possible event? Do we have something sliding through at a level in the atmosphere that isn't available on Raleighs site? Seems like an anafrontal wave that goes nuts due to the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Whats the mechanism behind this possible event? Do we have something sliding through at a level in the atmosphere that isn't available on Raleighs site? 700 is always a good tool with frontal wave stuff. Since it isn't vorticity driven or lp driven early on, everything looks harmless except for 700. The lift starts showing @ hr 30. Then were directly under the best lift right as the lp starts to get going. The little bullseye that the nam/gfs combo is showing is subject to heartbreak. But it's trending wetter overall and there are some dynamics working in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The trof position seems to be improving on the 6Z runs and the 12z nam. Seems to allow a bit more room over the mid-atlantic for development than they have been showing. Also the storm over SE canada is a bit weaker so that is somethign to keep an eye on too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 We have been saying all week how sharp the trough is and that it wouldn't take much to get something going. This isn't out of nowhere. It's just a timing issue. It's basically a developing arctic frontal wave. No real vort to track. Basically it's all about how quickly the wave amps and where the front is when that happens. Usually needing a faster development is a loss but this is trending that way so I'm optimistic but 12z is huge. I guess I should probably read up on it. I was always under the impression you needed some sort of spin at some layer of the atmosphere to initiate them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 does anyone remember an event in the 1990s where DC/Northern Virginia area got 4-6 inches but north of Rockville, they got flurries. I remember getting pounded but my parents went to their friends house up near Rockville and only saw flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 does anyone remember an event in the 1990s where DC/Northern Virginia area got 4-6 inches but north of Rockville, they got flurries. I remember getting pounded but my parents went to their friends house up near Rockville and only saw flurries? Maybe so, but this one will propagate northward regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 700 is always a good tool with frontal wave stuff. Since it isn't vorticity driven or lp driven early on, everything looks harmless except for 700. The lift starts showing @ hr 30. Then were directly under the best lift right as the lp starts to get going. The little bullseye that the nam/gfs combo is showing is subject to heartbreak. But it's trending wetter overall and there are some dynamics working in our favor. I had looked at the vorticity map and had noticed that though we didn't have a vort running through our area we did have energy to the south. I take it that is what is giving us the lift and initiating this? Thanks for the reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 does anyone remember an event in the 1990s where DC/Northern Virginia area got 4-6 inches but north of Rockville, they got flurries. I remember getting pounded but my parents went to their friends house up near Rockville and only saw flurries? I remember one when I was living in Silver Spring and got a couple of flurries while Waldorf was getting 4 to 6. It was a morning rush hour storm because I rememeber Bob Marburg (?) on WTOP talking about how bad it was down there. Not sure if it's the same one, but I'm sure Matt knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM looks damn nice. Pretty sure that is a wet snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I remember one when I was living in Silver Spring and got a couple of flurries while Waldorf was getting 4 to 6. It was a morning rush hour storm because I rememeber Bob Marburg (?) on WTOP talking about how bad it was down there. Not sure if it's the same one, but I'm sure Matt knows. it was on a saturday evening. IAD got between 4-6 inches and northern Mont county got zero. it was a weird system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Good start to the 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro ensembles have a little 1013 low between DC and Richmond at 0z Saturday. Maybe someone with secret squirrel access can tell us if they have precip. GFS and Euro ensembles fairly similar with the 21-22nd storm with a possible front end thump or ice and then heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 the NAM sucks compared to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM is a little slower with this and now is popping a weak low off southeast of the outer banks whereas before it was popping it fairly far from OC. Possible positive trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Without looking at soundings, the fact that the critical thicknesses are south of the precip max in central VA at 42hrs, that's probably wet snow with a warm surface (sound very recently familiar?). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not making a forecast just giving info on what it showed. Euro did trend towards an event but less so then the American models. I am cautiously optimistic. If the euro doesn't show a wetter solution at 12z though its a red flag that gfs is overdone. In the end qpf last night ended up split halfway between the euros .1 avg and the gfs/nam .6 avg for runs leading up to the day of. A euro gfs compromise is usually a good way to go. yesterday's 12z Euro run finally upped BWI qpf from yesterday's event to .15" after countless runs of under .1" BWI ended up with .31" Euro sucked for BWI; anyone want to argue otherwise for their back yard, go ahead because he/she may have a point, but it sucked for BWI GFS/NAM perfect? of course not, how often are the models perfect, but they had a handle on the event and except for going too high the day before on qpf, their runs starting 18z on Tuesday were right on the mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I guess I should probably read up on it. I was always under the impression you needed some sort of spin at some layer of the atmosphere to initiate them. The front has instability and the warm air is being forced to lift back over into the cold air behind the front. In this case it could be the sharpness of the trough doing the dirty work itself. As the energy dives into the trough and sharpens it up you get convergence along the front trailing the vort to the north. In this case that starts cyclogenisis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Without looking at soundings, the fact that the critical thicknesses are south of the precip max in central VA at 42hrs, that's probably wet snow with a warm surface (sound very recently familiar?). The difference is that with the VD storm it was warm at 950 at the start too. This one looks better in that respect (at least on the GFS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro ensembles have a little 1013 low between DC and Richmond at 0z Saturday. Maybe someone with secret squirrel access can tell us if they have precip. GFS and Euro ensembles fairly similar with the 21-22nd storm with a possible front end thump or ice and then heavy rain. Sneak attack on euro ens is virtually non-existent irt to precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.