Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You, PSU. GFS, Euro. Round 2? If the euro is right I'll always say it. I'm not a gfs "hugger" at all. Snow weenies better be huggin the gfs/nam on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If the euro is right I'll always say it. I'm not a gfs "hugger" at all. Snow weenies better be huggin the gfs/nam on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If the euro is right I'll always say it. I'm not a gfs "hugger" at all. Snow weenies better be huggin the gfs/nam on this one. They better be hugging the GFS as the NAM is warm. I should sit this out as to me yesterday was a non event and seems many here viewed it as a win. My perspective is too different than the majority. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If the euro is right I'll always say it. I'm not a gfs "hugger" at all. Snow weenies better be huggin the gfs/nam on this one. You know I am just ribbing you don't you? This winter has been so dismal and the boards so depressing I am just trying to lighten the mood. Besides as I said before I hug the model that gives me the most snow. So as of now. USA!!!!!!! USA!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 They better be hugging the GFS as the NAM is warm. I should sit this out as to me yesterday was a non event and seems many here viewed it as a win. My perspective is too different than the majority. Weenies and mets definitely view things differently. The only thing we felt good about was changing quicker because of heavy rates. I figured I was in a shutout situation yesterday morning but got into a nice band for 20 mins. Got maybe a 1/2 inch and its still in the yard this morning because I got down to 30 last night. It's a really small win. Like pre-season NBA small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 You know I am just ribbing you don't you? This winter has been so dismal and the boards so depressing I am just trying to lighten the mood. Besides as I said before I hug the model that gives me the most snow. So as of now. USA!!!!!!! USA!!!!!!!! I know you were. There are a lot of people on here who read and I don't want the bob/gfs against psu/euro becoming the new trend because that's silly. We're going to agree to disagree on last night and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Sure would be nice for the surprise to be legit, because it is a cutter-fest (per the modeling) after that. Repeatedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not really within the usefulness of the ensembles but you have to like the fact that every single member is now showing this storm from out of nowhere with a hand full potentially being fairly major events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah, looks better than this last turd. At least the upper levels are plenty cool. This would be a more traditional wet snow scenario. Funny how the forum exhausted itself to such a degree tracking the VD abomination that they are too tired to care about this much better looking event. Well, to be fair....it's hard to go whole hog considering the precip shield is the size of a peanut m&m. Somebody can rip a fart and blow this thing into ne leaving us with a T or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 we WANT the GFS! here's 6z for mtn lots of snow over the weekend http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kmtn NAM is warm, but I'd prefer the GFS be on our side DCA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Why not just post that instead of one of your usual 10 line diatribes? This is a crap post. God forbid psu's thought out posts clutter up the pages and pages of ****ty one-liners from dumbasses... hoffman, please keep posting the detailed thoughts. The effort is appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 euro sux GFS/NAM/JMA (fwiw) are all on board Not making a forecast just giving info on what it showed. Euro did trend towards an event but less so then the American models. I am cautiously optimistic. If the euro doesn't show a wetter solution at 12z though its a red flag that gfs is overdone. In the end qpf last night ended up split halfway between the euros .1 avg and the gfs/nam .6 avg for runs leading up to the day of. A euro gfs compromise is usually a good way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If I remember correctly 1 of the Mets a couple of days ago had mentioned that the Euro ensemble was showing a phantom precip shadow at this time period in the mid atlantic region and he speculated that it may have signified 1 or a couple of members having a solution with a storm in this area. I said that and I do think it was picking up the chance of this frontal wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Sure would be nice for the surprise to be legit, because it is a cutter-fest (per the modeling) after that. Repeatedly. Something off with the long range maps though. The 180 500 map on the 6Z GFS has a nice 50/50 and a 1038 HP just north of the lakes. It then cuts the storm right into that that HP. Something to keep an eye on. If that HP is 1040+ I have a hard time believing that storm is cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Not really within the usefulness of the ensembles but you have to like the fact that every single member is now showing this storm from out of nowhere with a hand full potentially being fairly major events. It indicates the op run wasn't just having a hiccup so that's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Something off with the long range maps though. The 180 500 map on the 6Z GFS has a nice 50/50 and a 1038 HP just north of the lakes. It then cuts the storm right into that that HP. Something to keep an eye on. If that HP is 1040+ I have a hard time believing that storm is cutting. Anything after truncation is bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Here is the 00z euro snowfall for the Feb 21-22 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Anything after truncation is bs. Agreed. But it needs to be watched. It is showing a decent 500 setup in that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I said that and I do think it was picking up the chance of this frontal wave Whats the mechanism behind this possible event? Do we have something sliding through at a level in the atmosphere that isn't available on Raleighs site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 We have been saying all week how sharp the trough is and that it wouldn't take much to get something going. This isn't out of nowhere. It's just a timing issue. It's basically a developing arctic frontal wave. No real vort to track. Basically it's all about how quickly the wave amps and where the front is when that happens. Usually needing a faster development is a loss but this is trending that way so I'm optimistic but 12z is huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Whats the mechanism behind this possible event? Do we have something sliding through at a level in the atmosphere that isn't available on Raleighs site? Seems like an anafrontal wave that goes nuts due to the trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Whats the mechanism behind this possible event? Do we have something sliding through at a level in the atmosphere that isn't available on Raleighs site? 700 is always a good tool with frontal wave stuff. Since it isn't vorticity driven or lp driven early on, everything looks harmless except for 700. The lift starts showing @ hr 30. Then were directly under the best lift right as the lp starts to get going. The little bullseye that the nam/gfs combo is showing is subject to heartbreak. But it's trending wetter overall and there are some dynamics working in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The trof position seems to be improving on the 6Z runs and the 12z nam. Seems to allow a bit more room over the mid-atlantic for development than they have been showing. Also the storm over SE canada is a bit weaker so that is somethign to keep an eye on too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 We have been saying all week how sharp the trough is and that it wouldn't take much to get something going. This isn't out of nowhere. It's just a timing issue. It's basically a developing arctic frontal wave. No real vort to track. Basically it's all about how quickly the wave amps and where the front is when that happens. Usually needing a faster development is a loss but this is trending that way so I'm optimistic but 12z is huge. I guess I should probably read up on it. I was always under the impression you needed some sort of spin at some layer of the atmosphere to initiate them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 does anyone remember an event in the 1990s where DC/Northern Virginia area got 4-6 inches but north of Rockville, they got flurries. I remember getting pounded but my parents went to their friends house up near Rockville and only saw flurries? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 does anyone remember an event in the 1990s where DC/Northern Virginia area got 4-6 inches but north of Rockville, they got flurries. I remember getting pounded but my parents went to their friends house up near Rockville and only saw flurries? Maybe so, but this one will propagate northward regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 700 is always a good tool with frontal wave stuff. Since it isn't vorticity driven or lp driven early on, everything looks harmless except for 700. The lift starts showing @ hr 30. Then were directly under the best lift right as the lp starts to get going. The little bullseye that the nam/gfs combo is showing is subject to heartbreak. But it's trending wetter overall and there are some dynamics working in our favor. I had looked at the vorticity map and had noticed that though we didn't have a vort running through our area we did have energy to the south. I take it that is what is giving us the lift and initiating this? Thanks for the reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 does anyone remember an event in the 1990s where DC/Northern Virginia area got 4-6 inches but north of Rockville, they got flurries. I remember getting pounded but my parents went to their friends house up near Rockville and only saw flurries? I remember one when I was living in Silver Spring and got a couple of flurries while Waldorf was getting 4 to 6. It was a morning rush hour storm because I rememeber Bob Marburg (?) on WTOP talking about how bad it was down there. Not sure if it's the same one, but I'm sure Matt knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM looks damn nice. Pretty sure that is a wet snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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