Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,862
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Malmax64
    Newest Member
    Malmax64
    Joined

February 2013 mid-long range disco thread Part 2


yoda

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Somewhat interesting evolution of the Friday night event with the 06Z GFS and how it plays out. It is trying to make this a warning criteria event for the 95 corridor if the temps will only cooperate. Has +.5 running from N VA through most of MD. Surface starts out pretty warm but the BL looks to cool quite quickly. So maybe initially rain with a quick turnover DC to Baltimore?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

06Z GFS shows cutter after cutter after the Friday night event. It does imply we would get a nice front end thump from the 22nd storm as it cuts into the Lakes.

 

Edit: Looking at the 22nd storm it has decent blocking to its north before truncation but then quickly loses it. I have to wonder if this will start showing the blocking holding on longer as we get the event within truncation. If so I wouldn't be surprised to see some adjustment to the east again though not nearly enough to run the low south of us as it looks now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

similar to NAM/GFS

 

we need to hope models are a hair warm like last night for Fri/Sat because verbatim much that falls is rain

Seemed that the GFS/NAM verified well on the surface but with how quickly everybody switched over to snow, if not starting as snow, I am thinking their BL profiles were to warm by a decent bit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The surface is iffy on this little surprise event but seems to be closer to snow to start with than this last one. There is also more cold air right behind it. We'll have to work on that timing in the next 40 hours.

we WANT the GFS!

here's 6z for mtn

lots of snow over the weekend

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kmtn

 

NAM is warm, but I'd prefer the GFS be on our side

Link to comment
Share on other sites

we WANT the GFS!

here's 6z for mtn

lots of snow over the weekend

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kmtn

 

NAM is warm, but I'd prefer the GFS be on our side

Yeah, looks better than this last turd. At least the upper levels are plenty cool. This would be a more traditional wet snow scenario. Funny how the forum exhausted itself to such a degree tracking the VD abomination that they are too tired to care about this much better looking event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, looks better than this last turd. At least the upper levels are plenty cool. This would be a more traditional wet snow scenario. Funny how the forum exhausted itself to such a degree tracking the VD abomination that they are too tired to care about this much better looking event.

to be  fair, it really just popped up on last night's 0z runs

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've got my fingers crossed that the models have just caught on to a PD weekend event that gets bigger on today's model runs

Considering how quickly this popped up you have to wonder if we might see the solution evolve even more. Maybe for the better? PD3? Bah!!!!! Knowing this winter this will be gone come the 12Z runs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

to be fair, it really just popped up on last night's 0z runs

GFS was hinting at it on tues evening. Preip was very light here but was painting .1 down st mary's county way. Then the bullseye kept getting closer and wetter.

Skepticism meter should be high on this one. I would be fitting if DCA breaks its streak with a fluke the size of a donut.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS was hinting at it on tues evening. Preip was very light here but was painting .1 down st mary's county way. Then the bullseye kept getting closer and wetter.

Skepticism meter should be high on this one. I would be fitting if DCA breaks its streak with a fluke the size of a donut.

I dare you call anything positive a fluke ;)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

GFS was hinting at it on tues evening. Preip was very light here but was painting .1 down st mary's county way. Then the bullseye kept getting closer and wetter.

Skepticism meter should be high on this one. I would be fitting if DCA breaks its streak with a fluke the size of a donut.

If I remember correctly 1 of the Mets a couple of days ago had mentioned that the Euro ensemble was showing a phantom precip shadow at this time period in the mid atlantic region and he speculated that it may have signified 1 or a couple of members having a solution with a storm in this area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...