Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 With that 50/50 you know from 8 days out it could and probably will trend south, but I don't buy the nao and 50/50 look either so the whole thing is likely to change. It's worth watching because we don't have much else to watch and its not a totally impossible scenario. The GFS is doing something very weird where the 50/50 low actually absorbs the midwest H5 low. Very odd...but if that were to happen it could possibly set up one last chance as the following wave comes under the newly reenforced block. One rule though, in February if you have a decent -NAO dont sleep on any storm threat. Things seem to want to happen this time of year if the NAO is in a good position. I would be shocked if it de-amplified and ended up further east but I don't think the solution it shows is all that out of whack either. Pattern is still pretty Nina'ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Interesting little ghost storm here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I looked at everything, just can't buy the gfs regarding hour 60 mini thump that kind of stuff happens here often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah, GFS is likely full of bunk. Euro will be drier than..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I would be shocked if it de-amplified and ended up further east but I don't think the solution it shows is all that out of whack either. Pattern is still pretty Nina'ish. well the solution it shows sets us up for a really nice pattern the following week after it...and maybe we cashin then. The last week of Feb is NOT too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Its .3-.4 QPF... not sure where its coming from as i dont see any h5 energy nearby... WAA? You won't see it looking only at 500 abs. vort. maps. Try looking at 700 winds/temps, 1000 mb frontogenesis, 500 abs. vort. advection. It's not a synoptic scale system, so looking at synoptic features won't tell the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Cosgrove is horribleTouche Randy! lol We finally agree on something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Touche Randy! lol We finally agree on something! Don't diss Cosgrove....Randy loves him from back on eastern. Best regards, -Legette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Don't diss Cosgrove....Randy loves him from back on eastern. Best regards, -Legette. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 looks like some energy heads across southern va and spins up a little surface low off the coast. i thought gfs had precip over the area a few days ago and took it away...interesting to see it come back...i guess we need to see if it sticks around the next couple of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 the JMA had this in the morning and everyone was ....wtf...how did it produce this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 -15 850's all day Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 remember this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 remember this? Wasnt there even pink on 84 or was that jb old run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Wasnt there even pink on 84 or was that jb old run? old run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 old run Ah ok, well the ole jma may have something goin here for a shot at surprise snow. (No surprise if you love the jma though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 lol the storm i guaranteed is already ruined. I didnt even last till Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Cloudy with a slight chance of rain. Punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 euro is torching at the surface Friday night, and precip is minimal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 SREF is on board: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p06&cycle=03ℑ=sref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_051_precip_p06.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 06Z NAM shifts the precip field south and west a good bit and puts it in line with the 00Z GFS. Totals on the precip are very similar as well with .25-.5 running up the 95 corridor. Temps look to be an issue, at least initially, with both the surface and BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Somewhat interesting evolution of the Friday night event with the 06Z GFS and how it plays out. It is trying to make this a warning criteria event for the 95 corridor if the temps will only cooperate. Has +.5 running from N VA through most of MD. Surface starts out pretty warm but the BL looks to cool quite quickly. So maybe initially rain with a quick turnover DC to Baltimore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 06Z GFS shows cutter after cutter after the Friday night event. It does imply we would get a nice front end thump from the 22nd storm as it cuts into the Lakes. Edit: Looking at the 22nd storm it has decent blocking to its north before truncation but then quickly loses it. I have to wonder if this will start showing the blocking holding on longer as we get the event within truncation. If so I wouldn't be surprised to see some adjustment to the east again though not nearly enough to run the low south of us as it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 06Z GFS bullseye for I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 euro is torching at the surface Friday night, and precip is minimal euro sux GFS/NAM/JMA (fwiw) are all on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 euro sux GFS/NAM/JMA (fwiw) are all on board add to that RGEM; probably a little more precip after the end of the 48 hr period per 7H RH map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Woah...lot of snow per 6z Gfs. 4-5 inches?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Woah...lot of snow per 6z Gfs. 4-5 inches?? 6z NAM is warmer than GFS runs at 0z and 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 add to that RGEM; probably a little more precip after the end of the 48 hr period per 7H RH map Can never read those dam things. What's it showing? +.25 for the 95 corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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