ohleary Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 SREF is on board: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p06&cycle=03ℑ=sref%2F03%2Fsref_namer_051_precip_p06.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 06Z NAM shifts the precip field south and west a good bit and puts it in line with the 00Z GFS. Totals on the precip are very similar as well with .25-.5 running up the 95 corridor. Temps look to be an issue, at least initially, with both the surface and BL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Somewhat interesting evolution of the Friday night event with the 06Z GFS and how it plays out. It is trying to make this a warning criteria event for the 95 corridor if the temps will only cooperate. Has +.5 running from N VA through most of MD. Surface starts out pretty warm but the BL looks to cool quite quickly. So maybe initially rain with a quick turnover DC to Baltimore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 06Z GFS shows cutter after cutter after the Friday night event. It does imply we would get a nice front end thump from the 22nd storm as it cuts into the Lakes. Edit: Looking at the 22nd storm it has decent blocking to its north before truncation but then quickly loses it. I have to wonder if this will start showing the blocking holding on longer as we get the event within truncation. If so I wouldn't be surprised to see some adjustment to the east again though not nearly enough to run the low south of us as it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 06Z GFS bullseye for I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 euro is torching at the surface Friday night, and precip is minimal euro sux GFS/NAM/JMA (fwiw) are all on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 euro sux GFS/NAM/JMA (fwiw) are all on board add to that RGEM; probably a little more precip after the end of the 48 hr period per 7H RH map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Woah...lot of snow per 6z Gfs. 4-5 inches?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Woah...lot of snow per 6z Gfs. 4-5 inches?? 6z NAM is warmer than GFS runs at 0z and 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 add to that RGEM; probably a little more precip after the end of the 48 hr period per 7H RH map Can never read those dam things. What's it showing? +.25 for the 95 corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Where's all the talk about next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Woah...lot of snow per 6z Gfs. 4-5 inches?? Considering that we are now within 24 hours we can expect the NAM and GFS to cut that down by at least 50% if not 75%. So, 1-2 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Where's all the talk about next week? In the midwest forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Can never read those dam things. What's it showing? +.25 for the 95 corridor? similar to NAM/GFS we need to hope models are a hair warm like last night for Fri/Sat because verbatim much that falls is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Woah...lot of snow per 6z Gfs. 4-5 inches?? Surface is warm. QPF is good but how much sticks initially is suspect as it stands with the latest runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 similar to NAM/GFS we need to hope models are a hair warm like last night for Fri/Sat because verbatim much that falls is rain Seemed that the GFS/NAM verified well on the surface but with how quickly everybody switched over to snow, if not starting as snow, I am thinking their BL profiles were to warm by a decent bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Anybody know what the 0Z Euro said about this Friday event? Haven't seen any posts about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The surface is iffy on this little surprise event but seems to be closer to snow to start with than this last one. There is also more cold air right behind it. We'll have to work on that timing in the next 40 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The surface is iffy on this little surprise event but seems to be closer to snow to start with than this last one. There is also more cold air right behind it. We'll have to work on that timing in the next 40 hours. we WANT the GFS! here's 6z for mtn lots of snow over the weekend http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kmtn NAM is warm, but I'd prefer the GFS be on our side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Anybody know what the 0Z Euro said about this Friday event? Haven't seen any posts about it. Believe I read somewhere that precip is very light and that it is basically a non-event on the Euro. Does this sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 we WANT the GFS! here's 6z for mtn lots of snow over the weekend http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kmtn NAM is warm, but I'd prefer the GFS be on our side Yeah, looks better than this last turd. At least the upper levels are plenty cool. This would be a more traditional wet snow scenario. Funny how the forum exhausted itself to such a degree tracking the VD abomination that they are too tired to care about this much better looking event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Just saw it elsewhere too, it seems like it just has one small line of rain/snow showers and is basically a non-event. But then again, yesterday was going to be a non event too. Believe I read somewhere that precip is very light and that it is basically a non-event on the Euro. Does this sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah, looks better than this last turd. At least the upper levels are plenty cool. This would be a more traditional wet snow scenario. Funny how the forum exhausted itself to such a degree tracking the VD abomination that they are too tired to care about this much better looking event. to be fair, it really just popped up on last night's 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I've got my fingers crossed that the models have just caught on to a PD weekend event that gets bigger on today's model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Anybody know what the 0Z Euro said about this Friday event? Haven't seen any posts about it. Euro shows nothing at all. Precip breaks out in NJ and moved up through NE sat-sun but it's at odds with the gfs/nam irt our yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I've got my fingers crossed that the models have just caught on to a PD weekend event that gets bigger on today's model runs Considering how quickly this popped up you have to wonder if we might see the solution evolve even more. Maybe for the better? PD3? Bah!!!!! Knowing this winter this will be gone come the 12Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 to be fair, it really just popped up on last night's 0z runs GFS was hinting at it on tues evening. Preip was very light here but was painting .1 down st mary's county way. Then the bullseye kept getting closer and wetter. Skepticism meter should be high on this one. I would be fitting if DCA breaks its streak with a fluke the size of a donut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Euro shows nothing at all. Precip breaks out in NJ and moved up through NE sat-sun but it's at odds with the gfs/nam irt our yards. You, PSU. GFS, Euro. Round 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS was hinting at it on tues evening. Preip was very light here but was painting .1 down st mary's county way. Then the bullseye kept getting closer and wetter. Skepticism meter should be high on this one. I would be fitting if DCA breaks its streak with a fluke the size of a donut. I dare you call anything positive a fluke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS was hinting at it on tues evening. Preip was very light here but was painting .1 down st mary's county way. Then the bullseye kept getting closer and wetter. Skepticism meter should be high on this one. I would be fitting if DCA breaks its streak with a fluke the size of a donut. If I remember correctly 1 of the Mets a couple of days ago had mentioned that the Euro ensemble was showing a phantom precip shadow at this time period in the mid atlantic region and he speculated that it may have signified 1 or a couple of members having a solution with a storm in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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