ravensrule Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That is my style. I like to offer analysis and not just the final sound bite, and I appreciate when others do the same. I love when HM, Wes, Ian or several others offer lenghty insights into their thought process and how they analyze a situation. It gives more then just a forecast, but its a learning experience when they share that. THere is a place on here for quick comments but there is also a place for real discourse as well. The way I post is just my style, take it or leave it. I have no problem if anyone decides not to read my comments because they are too long but I am not going to offer less analysis because a few people do not like to read. I love your posting style. It has taught me a ton over the years and I for one appreciate it and hope you continue it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Thanks, I am sure surface temps will screw us again though. its the strong Feb moon angle this time around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That is my style. I like to offer analysis and not just the final sound bite, and I appreciate when others do the same. I love when HM, Wes, Ian or several others offer lenghty insights into their thought process and how they analyze a situation. It gives more then just a forecast, but its a learning experience when they share that. THere is a place on here for quick comments but there is also a place for real discourse as well. The way I post is just my style, take it or leave it. I have no problem if anyone decides not to read my comments because they are too long but I am not going to offer less analysis because a few people do not like to read. You always have decent content I just think it can be communicated in fewer words, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I was kind of surprised that he was even predicting the event was going to be ice for us. Really? The whole thing can blow up at any time. We know this all too well. It's pretty late for a good ice storm around here. Not to mention we rarely have good ice storms anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 .4-.5 for dc. Ghost vort ftw! There is a vort over New England, and then the one that swings through 12 hours later and amplifies into the storm...perhaps the model is having trouble resolving things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's pretty late for a good ice storm around here. Not to mention we rarely have good ice storms anyway. Yep.. ice storm ain't happening in late Feb unless it's exclusively at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS is showing that look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I love your posting style. It has taught me a ton over the years and I for one appreciate it and hope you continue it. Thank you, what I love most about this board is what a collaborative and learning experience it is You always have decent content I just think it can be communicated in fewer words, IMO. I am too wordy at times, but again just my stype for better or worse. I think fuses are a little short right now given our run of luck, I really have no issues with anyone and don't want to clutter up this thread anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That ghost sys is weird.. tho who was saying things pop out of nowhere and work out sometimes. GFS sounding looks pretty good for DC.. flip to snow somewhere right after it starts probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 That ghost sys is weird.. tho who was saying things pop out of nowhere and work out sometimes. GFS sounding looks pretty good for DC.. flip to snow somewhere right after it starts probably. I was confused that a random 2-4 inches randomly pops up... maybe we get lucky... survey says we get nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That ghost sys is weird.. tho who was saying things pop out of nowhere and work out sometimes. GFS sounding looks pretty good for DC.. flip to snow somewhere right after it starts probably. That's how you know it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS is showing that look... of a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 That's how you know it's wrong. the whole thing looks weird. not sure why it's blowing up like that. vv's are wimpy then go to town in sw va and ride up over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 If we are going to get snow this winter it will be from a fluke event that pops up like this, I think. Modeled events have been major busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 the whole thing looks weird. not sure why it's blowing up like that. vv's are wimpy then go to town in sw va and ride up over us. GFS_3_2013021400_F54_VVELD_700_MB.png yeah, but the NAM has it too, albeit a hair west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Ukie isn't bad either...but these types of events on the western wall of a big trough/temp gradient are very finicky. I would keep expectations low and then work from there. It can produce but has to be well timed. This last event produced some modest snow too for the interior...but marginal airmasses are tough. That one had a vortmax in good position, but trended a bit poorly, but still was enough for the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 As we get that storm further into pre truncation it keeps going further northwest. Still don't see the excitement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Could be a historic tornado outbreak though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I would say after the nice heavy rates tonight im satisfied. I am, but I love this hobby no matter how disappointing. Need a band leader? Bob chill said all in on 22, but he cant, he has nothing to put in. I have some paper clips, m&ms, used trash bag, and some unopened mail. All in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I like that this is an event showing up only a few days out instead of teasing for days, only to crush our hopes. However, I won't really buy the phantom storm until it gets picked up with a bit more consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS gives BWI .41" Friday night DCA-.47" IAD-.33" MTN-..37" looks like .05-.1" qpf at the start would be iffy, but snow after that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 RGEM has it also at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 I guess the 25th system good be interesting... nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 clown maps are a solid 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 clown maps are a solid 3-5 after tonight, I would take that, be happy, call it a winter, and wouldn't look back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2013 Author Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS la la land shows 2 threats -- Feb 25 and March 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I looked at everything, just can't buy the gfs regarding hour 60 mini thump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 The Feb. 21-22 storm before entering truncation is picking up on quite a bit of CAD that was not there in previous runs. Something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 As we get that storm further into pre truncation it keeps going further northwest. Still don't see the excitement. With that 50/50 you know from 8 days out it could and probably will trend south, but I don't buy the nao and 50/50 look either so the whole thing is likely to change. It's worth watching because we don't have much else to watch and its not a totally impossible scenario. The GFS is doing something very weird where the 50/50 low actually absorbs the midwest H5 low. Very odd...but if that were to happen it could possibly set up one last chance as the following wave comes under the newly reenforced block. One rule though, in February if you have a decent -NAO dont sleep on any storm threat. Things seem to want to happen this time of year if the NAO is in a good position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 GFS la la land shows 2 threats -- Feb 25 and March 2 yea, it does that by merging the Feb 22 threat into the 50/50 and thus re-enforcing the NAO block. That might be total bunk but if it did do that, it would probably set up a window behind it like this run shows. All of this is unstable but with the NAO finally cooperating I think there is still a decent chance one of these threats turns out to be real. Just not sure which one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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